Norwich v Newcastle – Stat Attack!

Pardew will be hoping Newcastle bounce back
Today sees the mighty Magpies travel to a Norwich outfit who have managed just four wins so far this season and who have lost three of their last four Premier League fixtures. The Canaries sit some five places and ten points below Newcastle United and have conceded six less goals than they have scored (26 to 20).

After three tough battles against the Premier League’s finest, surely a trip to Carrow Road is just what the North East’s top dogs need?! Or is it a case that the injury-plagued Mags will be fearing such a fixture considering the absence of such key men? One thing is for sure; this game will not come easy to Alan Pardew’s early season high-risers and the stats suggest that the two teams are not as far apart as one would imagine!


Newcastle should expect to see plenty of the ball today, the Yellows from NR1 have the 3rd lowest possession rate in the Premier League as well as the 4th lowest pass success rate. The Toon should also be expecting a couple of chances thrown their way; only Bolton concede more shots per game on average currently and the Canaries have the 2nd worst dribbling stats; only Stoke make less successful dribbles on average.

Norwich do concede the least percentage of shots from the middle third out of the entire Premier League (59%) compared to NUFC who concede the most (75%). However, they do concede the highest percentage of shots from the right hand side (Obertan’s side) which is ironically Newcastle’s weakest side for goal scoring (just 10% of NUFC’s goals have come from there, the lowest in the Premier League).

Newcastle United shouldn’t expect a pretty performance from the East Anglians; they play the joint-most long balls on average per game with Spurs and they are one of only four teams averaging under 300 short passes per game in the Premier League. For perspective, Newcastle presently average just 308 whereas Arsenal (as expected) dominate in this area with a mean of 507.

Norwich v Newcastle:

NUFC v NCFC statistical comparison (EPL Index 2011)

The defensive data highlights the strength of Newcastle currently and how they by far outdo today’s opponents in terms of goals conceded. The influence of Tim Krul in goal has had a major impact on this and the improved number of defensive errors compared to Norwich is also a critical factor. Having said that, the two are not too dissimilar in the other defending numbers.

NUFC v NCFC statistical comparison (EPL Index 2011)

That statement is also reflected in the attacking stats. Norwich are currently producing more crosses than Newcastle at a slightly more significant success rate. The following chalkboards show that Norwich are more dominant crossing from their left, meaning Simpson (if playing right-back) will need to completely switched on and those in cetre-back must be prepared for an aerial battle.

Norwich City - Crossing in the last 6 games

The Canaries have created 21 more chances (including assists) than NUFC, scoring one more goal overall. But again, looking through the remaining data shows just how similar the performances of these two sides have been thus far.

In conclusion, the numbers paint a pretty ‘average’ picture for both clubs and they would suggest this game has DRAW written all over it. However, Newcastle United know this league inside and out in comparison to the Canaries and have a ‘paper’ team far more efficient than Norwich’s. While the current injury crisis will have shook the Black and Whites, in Demba Ba they have one of the most potent strikers currently in the league and with the right service, they should have too much for Paul Lambert’s men.

NUFC_Stats prediction – Norwich 1-2 Newcastle

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25 thoughts on “Norwich v Newcastle – Stat Attack!

  1. Well if Colo is out & we have Kadar & Perch in CB, we could struggle when those crosses come in, so it’ll be up to our wingback Simmo & Raylor, along with Obertan & Jonas to stop them getting the crosses in imo… saying that tho, Krul is getting better at coming out to collect the ball so we may be ok, as long as Perch doesn’t get in his way.. 😕


  2. we look pretty evenly matched according to the stats – not sure about today…. back four have hardly trained together never mind played, gosling much more attack minded than guthrie or tiote so expect to see gaps in front of the back four – on the other side he gives us a better option going forward – I expect a few goals in this game, reckon 2-2


  3. NUFC_STATS-Great little bit of info that, I knew Krul was coming out way more than last year but that is surprising. Probably goes down to how little Hart actually has to move nowadays with the team in front of him.


  4. Even with our depleted midfield/central defence I would hope we could pick up at least a draw today. I reckon AP will have his tactics spot on to protect the centre backs, then we have more than eneough flair and fire power up front to score goals. Howay the lads, show that great toon spirit and bring home the points today !


  5. Good write up that,I’d have said earlier but I’ve just got out of hospital, I broke both legs and cracked 8 ribs with lacerations to my arms and face, on and I lost 6 teeth.
    I fell down a frigging man hole , some twat had nicked the cover and weighed it in. 🙄

    Luckily I’ve been to the solicitors and they have said that I could be in line for 568 million compensation because they say my injuries have put an end to my muggings. 🙄


  6. HITMAN, all teams are a hard nut to crack until cracked. 😀

    Norwich won’t be easy by any means and we “could” become unstuck but equally we could be firing on all cylinders while they become unstuck.

    I’m sure Delia will have given all the players a large taste of her creamy sticky pie which could make them all a bit queasy 😀

    If we go there with full battle dress on, I think we will do just fine.


  7. Bloody spammer, …anyhow I’ve just bought a chanel sandal for our lass , a right foot one, I can’t afford the left for another 30 dollars so she’ll have to wear a slipper on that foot or something.


  8. Wolfie, just rig up a camouflaged bear trap somewhere in ya hoos. She’ll think your sweet and sensitive for taking into consideration her amputation come Christmas morning. Sorted.


  9. ….just think of all the single shoes ye can nick from ootside Timpsons. Never have to buy her shoes again. No-brainer.


  10. Rod, I can’t thank you enough mate, I done what you said and it worked but I done it a different way.

    What I did was, I went out and bought one of those shoe like doggy chews and told here to try it on , then I set the dog on her and he’s chewed her foot clean off.
    The hospitals stitching the wound up and in the mean time ive just been out and nicked 4 left shoes in colours she likes to cheer her up. 😆

    You have some brilliant thoughts mate and I knew I could rely on you. 😆


  11. Downside though, the hound will probably now have developed a taste for shoes. You could be back to square one. 😐


  12. Rod, I’ve managed to quickly turn the dogs attention to other things so he wont have a foot fetish and it was one of those Eureka moments.

    I thought about this foot attack scenario as you said and thought, hmmmm this could be tricky so I fed him my daughters 4 hamsters and 3 goldfish, plus as a dessert, I garnished her Giunea pig with the cats entrails and the dog is now laid on it’s back snoozing with what looks like a big grin on his chops.

    I woke him up and threw a shoe at him and he just turned his head away. 😀

    Hopefully my daughter will understand the need for sacrifice. 😆


  13. 1-3 or 2-3 For our Win! Comfotdable, with no injuries, with strong teams spirit and hardworking and lots of possesion and aquirate passes 🙂 I’m cool, i trust AP and our lads,we earned to be in top 5 by next year and we will be. And surely we will win this match. Obertan is getting better and better, Arfa to, Jonas is back, Shola is sharp, Demba and Best are hungry, Gosling isdesperate to take his chance (and he will) so will do Pearch and Kadar, they are no school boys they no how to play football at this level, we have good team staff and every game our tactics worked well in one or another way. Don’t forget we have cabaye and raylor, i expect some spectacular shots from outside the box. Can’t wait. P.s Allways try to reach the stars and maybe somedayyou will reach the sky, so keep your expectations high, we have a really good team, don’t forget that.


  14. Fine work Wolfie. Got my stomach rumbling. I can see you rubbing shoulders with Gregg Wallace and John Torode this time next year. 😛


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