How can you be lucky over 24 games?

Newcastle 3-0 Man Utd

A lucky 3-0 win over Manchester United
So here we are, sitting pretty in 5th in the table, just a point behind Chelsea in 4th with two of our next three games being at St James’ Park.

Naturally it’s all down to luck and good fortune, you know two commodities that Newcastle United always benefit from!

Sarcasm aside, that is the perception from some pundits, presenters, ex-professionals, and even from some, just a tiny minority, of our own fans who are waiting for this bubble to burst and for something to go wrong, presumably just so they can say how right they were all along.

Now we all know we are weak in terms of cover at the back. It’s been covered so many times now so I won’t go over it again. Suffice to say that pretty much everyone is in agreement that we could have done with an extra defender in January and know that an injury in the wrong position could have a bad effect on our season. However that is an if or a but, and for this one I want to look at what has happened already rather than what may or may not happen in the final 14 league games of what could be a fantastic season for us.

As I said earlier, we are 5th in the league which is down to luck apparently. Now I’m pretty sure that it’s impossible to be that lucky. Maybe over a run of a few games, but not over nigh on two thirds of the season. The premise of this ‘luck’ is because we aren’t really playing well or thumping teams and are instead grinding out the results.

I don’t see a problem with that. We’ve all been told for years that this is what “good” teams do so why is it any different for us? Look at the league, look at the usual suspects. None of them have been prolific yet they are all picking up the results in a very similar unspectacular fashion to ourselves. Of course teams have purple patches. Look at Manchester City at the start of the season. They pretty much thumped everyone put in front of them, but it didn’t last.

The fact is that three points are three points, and if you keep picking them up then the league table will reflect that. We’re fifth because we are the fifth best team in terms of getting results after 24 games. Not through luck, not through anything else in fact, other than our ability to get the job done!

Does anyone still think we’ve been lucky? Really? I mean on the odd occasion we’ve had a slice of luck, much in the same way that we’ve had luck desert us on occasion. It happens and it isn’t out of the ordinary.

We’re 5th because we deserve to be 5th!

96 thoughts on “How can you be lucky over 24 games?

  1. POOTLE – I never specified that percentage was for a person playing a contact sport. Obviously the percentage would then become a little higher.

    Nevertheless, it makes no difference to the point I am making.

    Even as a professional football player, when you enter into a match, the chance of sustaining an injury is much lower than the chance of getting through it unscathed.

    Therefore, if it is unikely that you are going to sustain an injury then you haven’t been lucky when you don’t as this was always the most likely outcome.

    This also works in reverse, should you pick up an injury when the odds were hugely stacked in favour that you wouldn’t, then you’ve been unlucky.

    Come on, this is just common sense!


    if we got offered 10 million for steven taylor if you were newcastle manager would ya take the money ❓


  3. That’s true Johno. Every time something goes our way we didn’t have full control of we can consider it lucky. Everytime it goes against us, unlucky.

    We aren’t where we are through a predominance of luck, but somethings that can be considered luck (good or bad) can have profound effects that last many games or even a season.

    For example, we have been unlucky that Taylors injury was serious to keep him out for the season.

    We have been lucky that Senegal got knocked out so early as it meant the Dembas were returned to us early.
    I doubt the Dembas feel it was lucky in the same way we do, however.


  4. Anyway, now that I’m thinking about it, how many professional football players are involved in a match over the course of a regular footballing weekend?

    Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Liga Sagres, etc etc etc.

    Now then, it’d be very intetesting to see the ratio of players to injuries.
    I wonder whether that percentage would actually be any higher than 1%.


  5. Silly boy. We aren’t talking about the luck of the player in not getting injured in a one off match.
    We are talking about taking a risk by not getting in defensive cover, and for that risk to work we need luck on our side.
    No injuries to defenders for the rest of the season.
    Incidentally, these super rare injuries you are talking about?
    Coloccini just had one recently, and we lost two players in the last match, so I can see why you think they are rarer than rocking horse shit.


  6. Gary you think it was only a ‘slight risk’ to not get a CB in 😯 😉 .

    Ice I just hope Batts knows how lucky he is. 😉

    Mark yeah he didn’t have to think too long about it 😆


  7. Yeah, bigsteve, I was just gonna mention the fact that it isn’t just injuries we need to worry about.

    Also, Gary, I’m not quite sure why you think the frequency of the injuries is the only consideration.
    Steven Taylor has only had one injury this season.


  8. Tottenham v Newcastle
    It wouldn’t surprise me if Tottenham won this game 5-0, but Newcastle also have the belief and ability to come out of this with a draw.

    Merson is a complete knob – spurs might win 5-0, newcastle might draw, man on mars… he aint got a clue …. why do the media employ these people, they would be better off asking any football supporter, in fact anyone at all


    i asked me question earlier would you sell steven taylor for 10 mil cause of his injure record.i would say in the last 3 seasons hes played about 1 in 4 games at a guess,i would love a job like that meself play about 10 games spend the rest of the season with ya feet up still geting paid 🙁


  10. The amount these pundits get paid is ridiculous too. Did you see how much Hansen was getting for MOTD, I cant remember exactly, was it 14K a show?


  11. The fact remains that there is a much lesser risk of getting injured as opposed not getting injured! How can you not understand that?

    You then also have to take into consideration that IF a CB was injured or suspended, we have no idea whatsoever how well their replacement would do!

    Yes, it’s always a risk that a player could get injured. However, if the odds are stacked in your favour that they won’t then you haven’t been lucky if they get through unscathed.

    Swallow your pride and admit your wrong for a change POOTLE.


  12. There’s alot of bollocks being talked about luck on here today like !!! 👿

    The fact is we have done brilliantly to be where we are.

    It may turn out to have been a mistake not to have got defensive cover in in Jan.

    Injuries/suspensions to defenders may have a detrimental effect to our end of season but as long as I see 11 players giving there all, that’s all I ask.

    Fuck luck … What will be will be!!!


  13. So called’ luck’ tends to even itself out over the season imo. I prefer to call it destiny as you are destined to finish where ever you do .How you get there wether good or bad is influenced by any number of events.For example does a referee not giving you a stonewall pen mean bad luck ,no it just means he either needs specs or never saw it most probs. And if he gives one he shouldn’t have it’s because he’s thought he’s seen a foul or been told so by his lino .It’s not luck if a player don’t get a red card it’s the refs call right or wrong it’s just an event that happens either in or against your favor. It would be more appropiate to say this or that club get all the decisions than all the luck .I have to admit i use the term luck all the time but i don’t actually think it’s so called luck ,it’s just easier to say really. As for us being 5th is that ‘Luck’ ,well no, hard work ,team spirit some good tactics and a few fortunate decisions along the way have got us there and long may it continue.


  14. Gary: Lol. Head in the clouds as usual. You’re so wrong its funny.

    Toonarmyelite: I would only sell Taylor if we were going to try to get in someone better to replace him. That would apply to any of the first team now. Anything else would risk throwing away our achievements this season.
    I imagine Gary would sell him whatever as he seems to like us taking needless risks.


  15. Here’s a simple example so that you can understand Pootle;

    If I was to walk down my street and find a £50 note, then I’d be lucky.

    If I was to walk down my street without any incidents at all, then no luck is involved.

    If I was to walk down my street and a bird shit on me, I’d be unlucky.

    You see, for luck to come into it, you need something to change. It could be for the better (lucky), or for the worse (unlucky). If nothing changes, there is no luck involved.

    Now, if Colo and Williamson were to continue until the end of the season without an injury, nothing has changed. NO LUCK INVOLVED!

    If one was to be injured, from something that wasn’t their own fault, then they have been unlucky.

    IS THIS EXPLANATION SIMPLE ENOUGH FOR YOU? Or are you going to attempt to wriggle out of the fact you’re wrong rather than swallow your pride and admit it?



    I’d take £10m, yes.

    I adore Tayls, but when you consider that FC Twente’s Douglas will be available on a free transfer and that we could probably get Montpellier’s Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa for around £5-6m in the next window, it’d be good business.

    Even leaves a possible £5m to further strengthen the club. That’s just my opinion, though.

    What would you do?


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