How many points do we need for safety?

Villa Park...we all know what happened...

Villa Park...we all know what happened...
How many points to avoid more sobs on the Tyne?
With 12 games of the season remaining, and with United sitting in 16th place in the Premier League table I fully believe our focus should be on securing survival for next season.

Currently we have 27 points on the board meaning that we need to find another 13 before the end of the season of we are to hit the magical 40 point barrier that is generally required for survival.

Wins for Aston Villa and Southampton over the weekend mean that the gap between us and the bottom three has been reduced to just four points, but with games coming up involving ourselves and teams in and around us there is scope for us to dig ourselves out of trouble providing we get back to winning ways in our next league game at home to Southampton in just under a fortnight.

Looking at the bottom three, starting with 18th placed Reading, they need to pick up 1.4 points per game if they are to hit the 40 point safety net. They basically have to win just under half of their games. Wigan in 19th need nearly 1.6 points per game, or to win just over half of their remaining fixtures whilst rock bottom QPR (1.9 points per game) need to win just under two thirds of their remaining games.

That kind of form has been elusive for all three teams all season long and with time running out one of them has to find a bit of form if they are to avoid the drop. Usually, one of them does though so we need to look at teams outside of the bottom three just in case.



First up we have Aston Villa in 17th. They need to pick up 1.3 points per game whilst we need to pick up marginally over one point per game, or four wins and a draw if you like. A win against Southampton would ease that somewhat but they are in form and will be full of confidence after beating Manchester City at the weekend.

This is of course assuming 40 points is the actual safety net and not just a figure plucked from thin air because it’s roughly right. Since the Premier League dropped to a 20 team format back in 1995 only three teams (Sunderland – 1997, Bolton – 1998 and West Ham – 2003) have been relegated with 40 points or above. Adding the numbers up for those who finish in 18th place taking the final relegation place the average points haul required is 37 (it’s actually 36 but I’ve added an extra point to avoid any goal difference issues) which is only ten points away from us currently.

So looking at our fixtures can we identify the game where three points could be on the cards?

Southampton (h)
Swansea (a)
Stoke (h)
Wigan (a)
Man City (a)
Fulham (h)
Sunderland (h)
West Brom (a)
Liverpool (h)
West Ham (a)
QPR (a)
Arsenal (h)

Surely there is scope for ten points from those fixtures? Even 13 points if you want to make sure? Of course this is all very logical and as we all know football isn’t logical too often. Anyone can beat anyone on their day but I’m quietly confident we can grab the points needed to survive, put this season to bed and look forward to next season.

Famous last words?

About toonsy

A lifelong Newcastle fan and current webmaster of this very ‘blog who has the sole aim of creating a place by Newcastle United fans, for Newcastle United fans.

142 thoughts on “How many points do we need for safety?

  1. I used to play at a decent standard and always remember playing against Roy McDonough, that guy didn’t mess about, little nibble on the earlobe and you knew you were getting it next time the ball came into your feet πŸ˜†

    Still keep in touch with him and his book Red Card Roy is brilliant, most booked player in English football history and first player manager to win a double (think it was with Colchester in Conference and FA Trophy)

    Got a lot of time for Roy as his spat with Martin O’Neill when O’Neill was manager of Wycombe is a brilliant story. Roy once told me MON was sure they were going to win the top of the table clash and had his team sussed…so Roy fielded a team with every single player out of position and they beat MON 3-0 πŸ˜†

      (Quote)

  2. Ice – the boy is 4 a week today and has one hell of a right foot on him, he can hit a volley as well which I thinks class for his age like. He’ll be a Dean Windass or Wayne Rooney I hope. If he turns to rugby he’ll defo be a forward.
    The pup is settling in great thanks mate, still only 9wks old so hasn’t had his last injection so we can take him out properly, but his making a good old mess of our garden :sad:. Can’t wait to get out and about with him to be honest with you tho mate, he’s cracking.

      (Quote)

  3. Afternoon all . Reckon we want shooting if we can’t get at least 4 wins out of them fixtures. Disappointed we lost on saturday ,apparently Bale was the main difference between the teams . Can’t believe Saints and Villa won ,bloody typical. πŸ‘Ώ Also very pleased Goofy only badly bruised ,so hopefully fit for Saints clash.

      (Quote)

  4. Southampton (h) win
    Swansea (a) draw
    Stoke (h) win
    Wigan (a) win
    Man City (a) lose
    Fulham (h) win
    Sunderland (h) win
    West Brom (a) win
    Liverpool (h) draw
    West Ham (a) win
    QPR (a) win
    Arsenal (h) draw

      (Quote)

  5. If we can beat southampton and stoke at SJP in the coming weeks and get above the likes of norwich, fulham and wham who are limping over the line and imho wont get as many points as us in the remaining matches i will feel much more comfy about it.

    It will probably end up at 36-37 points, But with those fixtures we should be scraping 40 as an absolute bare minimum…

      (Quote)

  6. Coloccini’s happiness in the North East has been fuelled by his family’s.

    With two young children and a wife to consider, the fact they are so settled in Newcastle ensures he has no intention of leaving.

    He explained: β€œI don’t know what will happen in the future.

    β€œ I have two kids, Tiago and Augustina, so maybe I will stay in England or somewhere in Europe.

    β€œShe is seven and he is four and they love Newcastle. Argentina is not very safe for them, I would have to worry about their security.

    β€œThey speak better English than me, my daughter is fluent, she is much better than me, she helps teach me now.

    β€œMy son is a little bit less as he had a problem when he was a small baby. He had a fit, a convulsion and it affected the part of the brain that deals with speech, but he is a lot better now.

    β€œIt was hard for them in that first year as well because when we came here they were put into a school and did not speak English.

    β€œNow my daughter has English friends and plays with them so she is happy and that makes me settled.”

    Back from 2010…interesting to read now.

      (Quote)

  7. Just booked my tickets for Southampton match! Woo Hoo!! Driving back to UK tomorrow (via Amsterdam Ferry) for 3 weeks!!

      (Quote)

  8. Sharpy-He will if I kidnap his family and force him to stay and win us the PL title…or else… πŸ˜€

    In all seriousness, just shows the severity of his fuck up. Can’t see how it could be that his wife/kids missed Argie, maybe his wife I suppose but his kids now will hardly remember arge, depending on how much they visited in the off season (or if they lived there when he was in italy/spain, which I doubt)

      (Quote)

  9. Cheers Newkie!! Just got some tickets for Thursday too… Let’s hope for a couple of good home wins!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

      (Quote)

  10. Deb , Would like to say all great but was awful πŸ‘Ώ He has had a Turbinectomy, Adenoidectomy, Polyps removal ,Sinus excavation and clean out and ear tube clean out πŸ™„ all in one lot . We had awful trouble wakeing him up after GA and he slept for yonks ,only wakeing at 02.30am to pull out his nasal packing and sutres causing a heaemorrhage 😯 πŸ™ It was like something from a slasher movie ,soooooooooo much blood ,I shit meself. Must of lost a pint and took ages to stop it. Home now ,on all manner of drugs and antibiotics and unable to bath due to bleeding threat so bed baths of a sort for next 7 to 10 days which is not idea in a 22 year old lad. Poor Lewis ,he must hate me putting him through that .Can only hope it helps him long term .One things for sure ,won’t go through it again too stressfull in a special needs adult as they don’t understand it all but it was done in ‘best practice’ as they put it.
    Bet you wish you hadn’t asked now πŸ˜† I’m sure he’ll be better soon once the oozing stops and he can lay upside down again (his fav position πŸ™„ ) . off limits at the moment in a constant battle to stop him doing it πŸ˜†

    Spurs game sounds like it was good ,did you get to go?

      (Quote)

  11. Kim sorry to hear Lewis had a bad time of it, but don’t worry I don’t think he’ll hate you you are his Mum. and as you say it was in his best interests so you had no option πŸ˜‰

      (Quote)

  12. Good read as usual toonsy. I think we should get 42-45 points so somewhere around 16th to finish. Poor season but we all know the reasons why. Next year should be very different or Pardew will be out looking for another job. Kimtoon that sounds horrible for the lad. Hope he is feeling better soon.

      (Quote)

  13. KIM feel for you i really do,you can only go by what they say what is best for him,hope things pick up for you both,chin up

      (Quote)

  14. Thanks Dave ,G2. Yeah just a waiting game now .Fits are a bit all over the shot too ,hopefully it settles down soon .

    Dave, how did we play V Spurs ,was it really Bale was the difference?

      (Quote)

  15. Kim I think we done well, and in a way you could say Bale made the difference, but it was 2 stupid mistakes that they scored from so maybe our 2 mistake had as much to do with it as Bale.
    But Bale was causing a lot of problems, really cant see Spuds holding on to him for much longer

      (Quote)

  16. Kim
    Sorry to hear it, sounds awful for the lad and yourself, hopefully it’ll get better from here on. My cousin’s son has a terrible case of epilepsy, still only about 8 and still attends school.

      (Quote)

  17. Dave , Yeah ,reckon he’ll be off in the summer ,getting to high profile for Spuds now ,he’ll get a silly wage offer from someone I expect . What do you reckon on Saints ,Can’t believe they beat Citeh ansd Bloody Villa got the win too πŸ™„

    [email protected] ,Cheers , yeah Epilepsy is always worse when stuff like that gets done ,feel for you’re cousin and his son.

      (Quote)

  18. Dave
    He still seems to split opinions, a couple today at school thought that he wouldn’t leave spurs as no club would pay what spurs would ask, others said he wasn’t as good as people think and one or two called him a knob (Man U/Liverpool fans) I said the standard reply of VP and the racist are knobs, to which they said “how?” πŸ™„ .

      (Quote)

  19. Hi Kim, so sorry to hear that. Poor Lewis having to go through it and you experiencing it all. I was a nurse some time ago, so can empathise with what you’re saying re the large blood loss, it’s always scary for people to witness! Good luck with everything sure Lewis will appreciate all you are doing

      (Quote)

  20. Andy πŸ˜‰ IMO he is good not world class yet mind but good.

    Ice yeah Goofy coming off made a big difference, and I think if he didn’t we would have got something from the game.

      (Quote)

  21. @BIG DAVE
    agree about bale cant see him being there after the summer, think he will be the most expensive buy of the summer transfer window,expect 1 of the big spanish clubs or man utd to come in with big bids for him πŸ˜‰

      (Quote)

  22. KIM i think half a dozen games goofy will be a cracking little player once again with the right service like πŸ˜‰

      (Quote)

  23. Ice , agree very exciteing to watch Goofy ,always looks like he can set up a good move in a second ,looks to be a good acquisition for us.

    [email protected] , I agree he’s an excellent player but he is a bit over hyped ,he’s no Messi yet.

      (Quote)

  24. @ KIMTOON
    nar he aint over hyped next time you get to see him play watch how far the balls away from his feet runing at pace

      (Quote)

  25. I’d say bale is on par with Ribery at the moment, a great player but can Gareth continuously show this talent as Ribery has over many seasons or is it just form that he’s showing. The old saying ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’ is appropriate here.

      (Quote)

  26. I see someone wrote an article on Anita not being quick enough for the PL only to be put in place by the comments saying he is very quick.

      (Quote)

  27. [email protected] ,He’s very quick I agree ,I’m just not sure he’s world class yet , at a better club with other world class players he could become world class ,no dis to Spuds like but they ain’t Barca like. πŸ˜‰

      (Quote)

  28. Andy ,who sad Anita wasn’t quick enough? . It’s his body strength needs work not his pace imo. Great little player who will get stronger and better I reckon.

      (Quote)

  29. TAE
    Race the writer of the article? πŸ˜† Unless it was Obertan, Sissoko or Bolt who wrote it I think Anita is a pretty safe bet to win that one. I remember Anita running from the corner flag (had just taken a corner) to the half way line in a few seconds to stop the counter-attack.

      (Quote)

  30. TAE
    That’s good to see. Like that the kid said Bonjour πŸ˜† , the fans will need to learn French to chant to the players and ask for autographs.

      (Quote)

  31. Andy ,a lot of the frenchies don’t like bad language in chants so we better keep em clean. I remember Chelsea fans had to sing ” He’s here he’s there we’re not allowed to swear ,Frank Leboeuf ,Frank Leboeuf ” Cause he complained about the swearing πŸ˜†

      (Quote)

  32. Kim – no didn’t get to the Spuds game, just watched it on telly. Only been to WHL a handful of times and that was enough. Yep, in nursing certainly had some funny experiences as you can imagine and that wasn’t including the illegal parties in the nurses home πŸ˜†
    Hope Lewis finds a lot of benefit from his op when things settle down..

    Dave, in the Uk, haven’t been travelling as much the past 4 months or so, company trying to save dosh, but suits me being at home more. How’s life treating you?

      (Quote)

  33. Deb , I used to share a house with some nurses years back and by god they knew how to party. I used to figure it was they’re way of dealing with some crappy stuff they had to deal with at work like. The hope with Lewis is that he won’t be constantly ill with chronic sinusitus after everything settles down though they don’t promise a cure but should be at least some improvement .

      (Quote)

  34. Kim, glad to see you have come through the worst of it with your young fella. You both need a medal if you ask me!

      (Quote)

  35. With West Broms win over Liverpool their are now 7 team within 7 points of the bottom 3 😯 and we are one of them unfortunately πŸ˜• This is one of the tightest seasons for some time down the lower half of the table… going to be nail biting stuff over the next month or so…

      (Quote)

  36. AMF
    Aye it only takes a slip-up and a couple of wins from those below and the team in 12th can find themselves in a relegation spot, really is a tight relegation scrap, don’t fancy us being involved next year (if we stay up πŸ˜• ) , a couple of signings in the summer and we can consistently challenge for top 6 with the occasional CL spot challenge.

      (Quote)

  37. Andy, yeah agreed. But we have to get through one hell of a scrap this season first… πŸ˜‰

      (Quote)

  38. What normally happens is that there is a team (it is usually Wigan) that pull away from danger and a team (like Norwich) that drop like a brick. I don’t think Wigan will do it again, their defense is not good enough this time. It could be Reading, Southampton are on the same points as us and look like they will be okay.

    Stoke – Nearly safe. Will rugby tackle their way to enough draws
    Wet Spam – On poor form but they have enough points to scrape home
    Fulham – Will be fine. Probably get top half at the expense of those two
    Sunderland – I think they will be fine but I hope we can overtake them
    Norwich – They could drop down and be in a fight for survival
    So’ton – They now look likely to survive but we must beat them at home
    Toon – I think we will get some wins in the next 4 games and climb
    Villa – Will be in a fight with Norwich and Reading I think but..
    Reading – I think will lose, what a shame.
    Wigan – I don’t think have it in them this time, your terminated!
    QPR – Too little too late, I think they will be long gone and nothing to play for when we play them on the second last game. I don’t think we will be fighting relegation then either.

      (Quote)

  39. JJ @8
    I think we all know that the Europa league is not their priority because there is virtually no money in it. Del boy has already said in the fckin paper that it is not a top priority. Great way to sell tickets for Thursday night. πŸ™„

      (Quote)

  40. I would live Liverpool to get relegated – shame it isn’t going to happen this season – hopefully rodgers will sort it for next season

      (Quote)

  41. DJG-Surely better than claiming you will go all out to win it, selling the tickets, and then throwing out a youth side? At least they’re being honest this way, for once πŸ˜†

      (Quote)

  42. Interesting stuff Toonsy, but I have to say I’m struggling to find the same level of optimism shown through the majority of your respondents..I don’t really understand what gives people the confidence to pin point certain fixtures as point accumulators especially when you consider that of the 12 remaining sides that we have left to play, we only beat 3 of them in the reverse fixtures..okay we’ve injected a bit more quality into the side since then in terms of Sissoko n Debuchy(the rest i’m not convinced about), but the question is, when the honeymoon period is over with and when it comes down to the nitty gritty of a relegation dog fight will these new additions provide us with enough added quality to survive? In normal circumstances i would say without a doubt, but with trips to the Ukraine and potentially Russia n beyond on the horizon(meanwhile this week the sides around us are chilling in places like Dubai n Tenerife for ‘warm weather training’) I’m not so sure that we’re gonna have enough left for the latter rounds of the fight..sorry lads, just being honest:(

      (Quote)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green