Three ways the takeover fiasco could pan out between now and the start of next season – scary stuff

With the fantastic achievement of survival all but secured by early April, Newcastle can have an exciting future if we finally get things right off the pitch. We have been saying this for almost the entirety of the eleven year Mike Ashley tenure but you get the finally get the feeling that the situation has to come to a head this summer; something has to give.

Just what outcomes are possible in the coming months with regards to the long term ownership of NUFC?

1 – The good – Ashely sells and to a serious bidder

The situation I am sure 99% of fans want; Ashley accepts his race his run and sets a fair price tag, we know £300m has been mentioned (without clauses). A takeover is then completed to a well-intentioned bidder, like PCP, who seem the most credible at the moment even if some doubts remain. The deal is completed early enough in the summer so we can feel the effects with player recruitment and we can finally back Rafa in the market to attract the calibre of player he wants. This goes hand in hand with Benitez signing a new contract and a really exciting period could await the club.

It is also worth noting the transfer window has now been moved forward this year until the eve of the new season, which will be the second week of August. So if a takeover is to happen, we need to see progress if it is to happen – and quickly.

2 – The bad – Ashley haggles and remains at the helm

Ashley digs his heels, Staveley doesn’t come forward with a bigger offer and takeover talks continue to be tedious and exhausting. We then likely revert to the previous situation of Ashley and Staveley being apart on valuation. He ‘promises’ to help Rafa more than he has in the past and tries to commit Benitez to a short extension. It’s a positive to an extent, but in the long run it’s not what Benitez, or the fans, wanted. I also think it would be pushing Rafa too far this time and after three previous ‘failed’ transfer windows, he may walk at this point anyway. We can’t risk that happening.

3 – The ugly – Ashley digs his heels and Rafa walks

Ashley does the unthinkable. Calls off talks with Staveley (again) and pulls club off the market and/or alienates Rafa, failing to change his ways and forcing Rafa to walk. This would be a disaster for Newcastle and we would be left with the thankless task of recruiting a manager of a lesser calibre, one who would be willing to work with his hands tied behind his back with Ashley. Ashley won’t invest as per usual and we would have a limited squad whose biggest strength, strong character and good management, totally demotivated. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to this come August.

With the situation having to change soon, what outcome do you think is most likely at this stage?

(Fancy writing for us? Send any articles/ideas over to us at [email protected] & we’ll get back to you!)

About Simon Riddlesden

Lifelong Newcastle United fan and East Stand season ticket holder. Observations from a supporter who has followed NUFC during Champions League participation and through relegation, taking me from Milan to Scunthorpe.

101 thoughts on “Three ways the takeover fiasco could pan out between now and the start of next season – scary stuff

  1. So Simon , 99% of Toon fans would like Ashley to sell the club to a well intentioned bidder like PCP ?
    I am in the 1% that would not.
    The first priority of Ashley is Sports Direct and NUFC is his free advertising vehicle.
    The first priority of an investment company is to provide their investors with the highest possible return on their money.
    Given those two options I would take Ashley.

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  2. If Ashley could sell NUFC to an oil rich Country or to a member of an oil rich member of an Arab royal family then yes , bring it on!

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  3. What we don’t need is any kind of turmoil. We need the kind of stability that will allow Rafa to just get on with the job he’s started. He’s bound to get a much bigger budget this time around
    (especially with player sales) even with Ashley remaining. If Ashley keeps the kind of distance he’s shown this season then probably the best outcome is no change. Having said that I can’t stand the ******.

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  4. Chelsea must have learnt their lesson after Matic. The offer from Man U was a good one but it is still stupid to sell to one of your main rivals. That’s why I don’t think Kenedy to Arsenal or Spurs is on. And PSG and Bayern are Chelsea CL rivals. Who knows with Chelsea though after Salah and De Bruyne.

    The speculation may put the price beyond us. However, I think we would accept a sell on clause and the others would not which may help.

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  5. georgio:
    Eric Sykes

    Georgio: he did let Carr and Charnley run it and let them have all of the money in the bank as well. They didn’t buy bad players, they just picked the wrong managers. What I am saying is that Ashley has stepped back before and given all NUFC cash to those who are hands on at the club.

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  6. sidekick:
    So Simon , 99% of Toon fans wouldlike Ashley to sell the club to a well intentioned bidder like PCP ?
    I am in the 1% that would not.
    The first priority of Ashley is Sports Direct and NUFC is his free advertising vehicle.
    The first priority of an investment company is to provide their investors with the highest possible return on their money.
    Given those two options I would take Ashley.

    Do you think Abu Dhabi United, Glaziers or Roman have decided to throw money at their respective clubs just for the craic? You don’t think they’ve got a long term plan to get a ROI? They’re all business people, not charities – please don’t confuse the two. The difference between them and Ashley is that they realise they need a successful and growing football club in order to get their return. I’d wager Staveley would see it the same way. How can she or her investors make money from a club that’s relegated every 2/3 years…

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  7. Stuart do you think this take over will happen ? I can’t see Mike Ashley selling myself especially to ICP.

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  8. I do think Rafa will see out the last year of his contract even with Ashley at the helm. ICP either put up the cash or say there definitely not interested in buying the club.

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  9. ***, Sorry Simon but I can’t even go there anymore, the last round of takeover talk was exhausting for all. I still think it had a detrimental effect on the team and fans/club in general. He has no real intention to sell up imo but the distraction of it allows him not to invest. Remember it was reported that he wouldn’t do business with Amanda and PCP at all after what he said was a waste of time.
    If and it’s a bloody big if, anything is going to happen I suspect we won’t know anything until it’s announced and it likely won’t be PCP .
    I urge all fans to try and ignore all speculation on a possible takeover and hopefully the press do too cause it will all end in disappointment, AGAIN.
    That’s my last on the whole subject until something happens.

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  10. Stuart79: Do you think Abu Dhabi United, Glaziers or Roman have decided to throw money at their respective clubs just for the craic? You don’t think they’ve got a long term plan to get a ROI? They’re all business people, not charities – please don’t confuse the two. The difference between them and Ashley is that they realise they need a successful and growing football club in order to get their return. I’d wager Staveley would see it the same way. How can she or her investors make money from a club that’s relegated every 2/3 years…

    You sure you are seeing the big picture there Stuart? Isn’t part of it to wash dirty money? To bask in the glow of success. To try to change the narrative from corrupt Oligarch and human rights abuses to Champion’s League winner and bringing Neymar to Paris. For the Glazers, Levy and Arsenal it might be about money but for others it is much more complicated and I doubt return on investment is high on their list of priorities.

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  11. Also Stuart: I think you have your priorities wrong if you are worried about giving free bus travel to under 25s. The cost of that is minimal compared to the tax dodges allowed. I know you are going to say the top 1% pay third of the taxes but they also make 80% of the money and try their best not to pay taxes in the place they made and make their money.

    I am far from a socialist but I am not a doctrinaire free marketeer as you seem to be. You know, its great to have no Government interference until something goes wrong and they need help. I am thinking about the bank bailouts and many other instances.

    But lets keep politics off the blog. You had your say earlier and I have had mine now.

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  12. Stem:
    Stuart do you think this take over will happen ?I can’t see Mike Ashley selling myself especially to ICP.

    I think it will but whether it’s to PCP I don’t know. I think he wants to sell. He’s been preparing the club for this for the last 18 months imo. Rafa holds the key. Jabba knows the value is only half without him and there’s a chance we get relegated again.

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  13. Eric Sykes: You sure you are seeing the big picture there Stuart? Isn’t part of it to wash dirty money? To bask in the glow of success. To try to change the narrative from corrupt Oligarch and human rights abuses to Champion’s League winner and bringing Neymar to Paris. For the Glazers, Levy and Arsenal it might be about money but for others it is much more complicated and I doubt return on investment is high on their list of priorities.

    City have already sold a % of the club to the Chinese so it’s clear they will want their money back at the end – whenever that is. There’s easier ways to clean dirty money, Eric. Otherwise every dodgy Russian would own a football club.

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  14. Getting back to football. The Arsenal game is on live here and I am going to watch it. I will give an update later. But I did see a London Website that says they are flying back to London early Friday Morning and then making the trip up to Newcastle on Saturday for the early kick-off. I really think they should have flown direct to Newcastle from Moscow so that will hopefully hurt them.

    They also said they are putting out their strongest team at least to start.Must have been shocked by the Roma, Juve and City games.

    Their away record is abysmal and I think Olly will reference that in his preview.

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  15. kimtoon:
    Cameron WAS and May IS a car crash .

    Problem is, Kim, it’s all relative. I happen to think both of them inherited a really bad hand when they got the gig. Also no PM can ever please everyone. The narrative that the poor are more deserving of things is so backward it’s beyond belief.

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  16. Stuart79: City have already sold a % of the club to the Chinese so it’s clear they will want their money back at the end – whenever that is. There’s easier ways to clean dirty money, Eric. Otherwise every dodgy Russian would own a football club.

    They only sold about 10% for a crazy amount of money. They are still by far the majority owner and most people don’t even know about the Chinese investment.

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  17. A lot of dodgy Russians own football clubs. There’s also the prestige thing as with American Sports club owners and the Chinese. I agree that Yank owners of PL teams are usually in it for the money.

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  18. It gets even worse. I just checked the time in Moscow and the game doesn’t even start until 10pm their time. So a 12am finish and then they have to get back to the airport for a 4 hour flight. There is no way they are getting to their homes before 8am Friday.

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  19. Yeah, just checked the times because I thought it was a bit crazy to start so late. I doubt I would like to be an Arsenal fan trying to get back to the hotel in the early hours.

    Current times:

    12 pm Chicago
    6pm London
    8pm Moscow

    So it does start at 10pm 🙂

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  20. We have the best chance in ages of beating Arsenal, they will be shattered and we MUST take advantage.

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  21. I have said this before but I always thought it was Pardew’s blather and excuses that our European games were a reason for some bad results. He may have had a point for once though because we didn’t have a deep squad. Remember Fatman only bought Anita that year.

    Arsenal don’t have a deep squad either, though God knows how with all of their money. Total mismanagement.

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  22. And Stuart. All I was saying is that football ownership is much more complicated than return on investment. I promise you will see Amazon and Google get involved in the next few years, especially if the US get the World Cup. That will be about content, just like it was when Murdoch pushed the PL because he wanted to drive viewers to his cable network. Hell, Fatty had an ulterior motive(s) – publicity, have a bit of fun, promote Sports Direct.

    ROI is too simplistic.

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  23. Eric
    re your comments on the Mackems relegation woes on previous thread – did you know the most popular bet on the Championship relegation clubs is for Sunderland to stay up at 12/1 ?
    A lot of people gambling on them winning the next 2 games, getting nothing at Fulham and going into the last game needing to beat Wolves who will be going to the S.O.L. as league champions and probably 101 points on the board and nothing really to play for.
    Although that scenario would prolong the agony of their fans I am hoping they get beat at Reading this weekend.

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  24. sidekick:
    Eric
    re your comments on the Mackems relegation woes on previous thread – did you know the most popular bet on the Championship relegation clubs is for Sunderland to stay up at 12/1 ?
    A lot of people gambling on them winning the next 2 games, getting nothing at Fulham and going into the last game needing to beat Wolves who will be going to the S.O.L. as league champions and probably 101 points on the board and nothing really to play for.
    Although that scenario would prolong the agony of their fans I am hoping they get beat at Reading this weekend.

    It is not just about Sunderland though. If Bolton and/or Barnsley get points it means Sunderland need to get more. Fulham will have a lot to play for and there is a massive gulf in class between Wolves and the Mackems so they could probably win even if they are not bothered.

    12-1 is a bad bet IMHO.

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  25. sidekick: I don’t want to see the Mackems go into administration, I just think it is inevitable. They can pull off a miracle and stay in The Championship and their only other hope is to bounce straight back. Their wages, and the way the Parachute payments are, means they are bankrupt if they stay in League 1. As I said, the average annual revenue in League 1 is 6 million. The Mackems would be a bit more but you cannot run a club of their size long term on that sort of money.

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  26. Eric; Rodwell has refused to cancel his contract of £70k per week which runs until June 2019.
    I think that will make him the highest ever paid player in league one.

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  27. Sidekick: I looked at the Deloitte football finance survey and the average revenue/turnover in League 1 is 5.6 million per year. Rodwell’s wages are 3.6 million per year!

    You have to run the club, pay the cleaners, the Stewards, the accountants etc. so Rodwell is probably being paid as much as the whole playing staff, including reserves, at most other League 1 clubs. Incredible. And why I think if they don’t bounce back immediately they are fcked (and maybe before depending on what Short does).

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  28. Arsenal have put out a full strength side apart from Wilshere starting (that will probably come back to bite me) so they will be knackered on Sunday.

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  29. I am a bit like KIM I don’t want to get bogged down with takeover talk,if I hear anything I will say but overwise

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  30. Ice: I think Fatty will say 350 million, take it or leave it. He should as well, with PL football I think that is a fair price. You know what I think about these idiot finance professors that the Chronic wheel out saying 225 million. Probably got their Doctorates from The University of Sunderland.

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  31. I have said this before as well, but if I was the Fatman I would do a deal to keep 25% of NUFC and some of the billboards. He is not interested in the day to day running of the club so let someone else do it and reap some of the rewards if they succeed. He doesn’t really need the money and if we are successful he can piggy back SD on that.

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  32. Eric Sykes:
    Ice: I think Fatty will say 350 million, take it or leave it. He should as well, with PL football I think that is a fair price. You know what I think about these idiot finance professors that the Chronic wheel out saying 225 million. Probably got their Doctorates from The University of Sunderland.

    ???

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  33. Oompaloompa off after 67 minutes and still his Pals in the media and on the pundit couch will want him in Russia as “England’s most creative midfielder” tm. I am not sure if there has ever been a player with such an undeserved reputation.

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  34. **** have been absolute **** up to 73 mins and Cech has been very dodgy. About time Jamal got another goal for us, Cech is nervous.

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  35. Chris Coleman is saying NUFC fans are being nice about Sunderland’s predicament. He would know BECAUSE HE LIVES IN NEWCASTLE. Even their Manager doesn’t live in Sunderland.

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  36. Icedog:
    Bloody Kane goes crying to the PL claiming that goal,,get on with the game man

    Desperation, really wants that golden boot .

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  37. Eric Sykes:
    And Stuart. All I was saying is that football ownership is much more complicated than return on investment. I promise you will see Amazon and Google get involved in the next few years, especially if the US get the World Cup. That will be about content, just like it was when Murdoch pushed the PL because he wanted to drive viewers to his cable network. Hell, Fatty had an ulterior motive(s) – publicity, have a bit of fun, promote Sports Direct.

    ROI is too simplistic.

    Let’s see. You won’t see many who have bought a club, invested, made it successful and then sell for a loss. I’m talking basically about PL clubs.

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  38. Because the TV money has gone through the roof. Like shooting fish on a barrel. Unless there is big overseas growth that is about to end.

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  39. There now seems to be a little bit of momentum behind Shelvey for England. It is probably only a 5% chance but some of the London pundits like Tony Cottee are taking notice. It helps that Jonjo is a cockney.

    And finally there are people realizing that Jack Wilshere is ****, lead by Roy Keane. The Emperor has no clothes and I am not even sure if he will be picked against us. He may conveniently have an ankle injury even though he was able to play until the 69th minute after pretending he was hurt before half time. He was taken off because he was the worst player on the pitch and as usual was getting in his teammates’ way and clogging up the space where Ozil should be.

    I hope he plays against us and I hope I am not creating bad karma here so that it comes back and bites me.

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  40. kimtoon:
    Wasn’t it Roy Keane who said he had no idea what Wilshire actually does

    I know what he does. Runs into people, falls over and claims a foul. Points a lot. Stops fast breaks because he is so slow. Fills up the space where Ozil should be. Gets into fights with opposition players and yells at the Ref that it was their fault #PASHUN.

    Enough of him. I have watched the last 4 Arsenal games because that is what they show over here. They have been pretty **** but still got results. The usual cliché is that is the sign of a good team but maybe, just maybe, they have got lucky. Some stats:

    12th best away record in PL
    Only 3 PL away wins
    Beat NUFC last 10 times we played

    Mikytarian injured. Aubamayang fit. Wenger played most of his first choice players for the full game in Russia. Welbeck in scoring form but that doesn’t usually last. Saved Lacazette by taking him off in Russia but the Frenchy was not happy about it.

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  41. Young kid saw S Gerrard sitting in the airport,can i have a photo please,jog on son was his reply,arsehole 😈 😈

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  42. Ice: I am torn between thinking he is a pratt and thinking he must get the selfie requests sometimes/all the time that it would get old.

    You know, after like 100 in an airport I think it might try my patience?

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  43. Eric Sykes:
    Ice: I am torn between thinking he is a pratt and thinking he must get the selfie requests sometimes/all the time that it would get old.

    You know, after like 100 in an airport I think it might try my patience?

    trouble is its part of being a footballer mate,he was sitting doing nowt,itwas in Hamburg not many knew who it was

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  44. kimtoon:
    not too tired to pick up wads of cash though I’d wager.

    That’s got nothing to do with it mate. He sort of knows what to expect but he didn’t sign up for it. I am not a big fan of Stevie G, mainly because of that horrible accent, but I can understand his frustration. Maybe he just wanted some “down time”, some “alone time”, “family time”.

    People become celebrities now because of social media but I am not sure if that should allow everyone to intrude on people’s lives ALL of the time.

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  45. If I was in his shoes I would understand it 95% of the time but I also think I would get sick of it. And again, with social media, everything they do is scrutinized. It is like the old joke of “Ifan the Sheepshagger”…

    You do 30 Charity Runs and they don’t call you Ifan the Runner

    You do climb Mt Everest and Kilimanjaro and they don’t call you Ifan the Mountaineer.

    You trek from pole to pole and they don’t call you Ifan the Adventurer.

    BUT YOU SHAG ONE SHEEP…

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  46. I mean, Stevie G can visit 100 kids in hospital, give his time to Sports Relief, pay for his kids’ school science day but if he gets grumpy about one selfie then that is news. That’s all I am saying.

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  47. I tend to agree with Eric. How many requests for selfies is too many? 10? 100? 1000? I’m pretty sure it would get on my wick too

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  48. Stuart79:
    I tend to agree with Eric. How many requests for selfies is too many? 10? 100? 1000? I’m pretty sure it would get on my wick too

    Stu, I just find it hard to be sympathetic to a guy and his family when they have posed and done spreads umpteen times for Hello magazine. He claims his wife Alex makes him do it, has he never heard of the word ‘no’ ? Only to young fans it seems.
    Photos of his 3 girls and new son are all over instagram too, it’s not hard to be anonymous if you don’t want to be noticed. David Bowie would don a hat and sunglasses and ride the subway in NY and never got noticed apparently. Just saying like.

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  49. Eric Sykes:
    I mean, Stevie G can visit 100 kids in hospital, give his time to Sports Relief, pay for his kids’ school science day but if he gets grumpy about one selfie then that is news. That’s all I am saying.

    Lot’s of ordinary folks raise money for SR and their local hospitals and raise funds for their kids
    schools, often unnoticed .
    It may ‘get on his wick ‘ but it would of made that kids day .

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  50. Don’t like sunday games, much prefer a sat 3pm game, I know we get to watch it live on tv but tv games generally don’t bode well for us and it’s Arsenal 🙄
    A point would be lovely tomorrow but really it’s a great opportunity to take all 3 with them having played and travelled so much this week.

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  51. kimtoon: Stu, I just find it hard to be sympathetic to a guy and his family when they have posed and done spreads umpteen times for Hello magazine. He claims his wife Alex makes him do it, has he never heard of the word ‘no’ ? Only to young fans it seems.
    Photos of his 3 girls and new son are all over instagram too, it’s not hard to be anonymousif you don’t want to be noticed. David Bowie would don a hat and sunglasses and ride the subway in NY and never got noticed apparently. Just saying like.

    Yeah, and John Lennon got shot dead.

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  52. Kimtoon: I am getting a bit scared now that I sort of agree with Stuart on something that is not NUFC. However, I am the middle because I agree with you when you say the selfie with Stevie G would have made the kid’s day but then again I think I wouldn’t want to be hassled all of the time. It was fine with autographs, but pictures when you are tired, bored, hungover? And you shag one sheep…

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  53. And Mark Hughes is playing the non-scoring striker again. Shane Long. He got lucky last week.

    Southampton are toast.

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  54. Hughes is playing the 10 men behind the ball and then the 5 men to press. That never works. There is no transition.

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  55. Some big games this afternoon down at the bottom. Even bigger is Southampton win. It puts the cat amongst the pigeons.

    According to Jeff Sterling Arsenal haven’t collected a single point away from home in 2018. Everything is in our favour tomorrow.

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  56. Well there’s a cat in pigeons a fox in the henhouse. Stuart might be right about Huddersfield. We’ll see.

    WTF are Chelsea doing?

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  57. Stuart: Chelsea have looked **** for 60 minutes but then. Then… Southampton have Mark Hughes.

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