Luuk de Jong

This particular window is shaping up to be no different with Demba Ba being the subject of the bulk of speculation this time round.

There is nothing to say that Ba will leave us and at least he seems happy with where he is right now if you read his tweets. Indeed Alan Pardew is hopeful that the Senegal international can be persuaded to stay on Tyneside and urged the fans to show their love for Demba in the final few weeks of the season insisting that knowing he is adored might be enough to tempt the 26-year-old into signing a new deal which would have the much publicised release clause removed.

But what happens if love isn’t enough and Demba decides he wants away? The very presence of that clause, said to be £7m, means that suitors will be lining up for him, even with his allegedly dodgy knees. What happens then?

Well apparently we are already making contingency plans should the worst happen and Demba decide to leave. Step forward FC Twente hitman, Luuk de Jong, who is said to be interesting Newcastle and is being eyed as a replacement for Ba.

The 21-year-old Holland international bagged 25 goals last term and has a strike rate of just under a goal every two games throughout his career, which isn’t too shabby at all when you consider he played for De Graafschap for one of those seasons, who ended up being relegated.

Interest in de Jong would be high though as he is being monitored by a number of clubs across Europe, but now we can offer European football perhaps we would stand more of a chance should we need to go looking for another striker?

Here is a compilation of de Jong in action. What do you think of him?

All change at the academy

It was reported earlier on in the season that owner Mike Ashley wasn’t overly impressed with the standard of talent in the academy so has backed a £15 million improvement drive with the aim of improving the quality of youngsters on our books.

The better prospects, such as Remie Streete, have been retained although fortune hasn’t smiled on a lot of the lads who are all looking for new clubs after being released by United. It’s a cruel part of the game and no doubt some of the kids that have been released have been with us for a few years, but ultimately if they are deemed not good enough for the future then why waste their time and ours?

The aim is to make our academy a place where young players want to come. With a visible path into the first team youngsters will know that as long as they impress and prove their ability on a consistent basis then they will edge closer to the first team picture.

Satka may just be the start of a new intake of players, and being fair most if them will probably not make it, but if we can drag even one or two from our own academy then surely it has to be an avenue that should be explored?

Lots of players will be turning up on Tyneside for trials, and lots of them will no doubt be unsuccessful, but what we need to do is ensure we retain the best ones and look to groom them for a future role in the first team.

Our academy has been pants for years in truth. Many players have been touted as the next best thing, but only a handful have ever made it through to the first team while the rest have disappeared into obscurity. That is something that has to change is Mike Ashley’s vision of “growing our own” is to ever come to fruition.

It starts now, and whilst it will be a long road for some of our youngsters, I for one am glad that we are now looking to get the best from our outstanding facilities at Little Benton.

Newcastle must improve, says Pardew.

That area is primarily the defence which at times has leaked like a sieve and has meant that any chance of winning a game has been lost, sometimes before the match is actually properly under way.

Newcastle conceded 51 goals last term – the second worst amount in the top half of the table – although heavy defeats to Tottenham, Fulham and Wigan contributed 14 to that total. Still it’s an area which clearly needs working on and strengthening in the summer, something that Pardew is keen to press on with.

“At the back is an area we need to strengthen. We’ve let in too many goals,” Pardew told nufcTV.

“We have to tighten up at the back. We finished with only a plus-five goal difference. We let too many in and didn’t score enough to win 21 games – that’s the truth of it.”

“But to win 19 means you’ve been really tight all year. We’ve had to grind wins out and next year we are going have to make sure we win 21 games with a little bit more style.”

He added: “It’s important that we don’t rest on our laurels, that we understand we have taken the Club on a huge leap forward, finished above some great teams below us, and then try to improve on that.”

Of course having Steven Taylor back will be a huge boost to the defence, but it’s still light on both numbers and quality. We need another central defender and more than likely a specialist right or left back as Danny Simpson’s days on Tyneside appear to be numbered. The right or left part depends on what they fancy doing with Davide Santon, who was excellent in the final few weeks of the season.

There is talk of Mathieu Debuchy being the one that we’re looking at, although I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was a complete red herring and we landed up with someone hardly anyone knows anything about. And why not? It hasn’t exactly served us poorly thus far has it?

The central defender is another are which sounds as though it will be strengthened giving us more depth, which is needed if we are to compete on more fronts next season, including the Europa League.

Our “goals for” stat could do with some improvement, but it’s the “goals against” column which is causing us more problems at the moment. If you concede goals regularly it gives our attack little chance of winning a game, regardless of how good they may be. The frightening thing is that we conceded 51 goals with 15 clean sheets added into the mix. That’s essentially 51 goals against in just 23 games – over two a game!

And that most definitely needs improving on next season!

The Mackem slayer

The basic point behind it was sound enough, but I didn’t like the way Lee Ryder went about it. I’m sure he’s not bothered, after all he is paid to do what most of us bloggers do for free!

Anyway the whole point of the article was using stats to show how great our new signings have been and how they have overshadowed the previous stalwarts who helped us survive in the league and got us halfway to where we are now. A bit unfair I thought, almost like an “I told you so” kind of article.

The fact is that without the likes of Joey Barton, Kevin Nolan, Jose Enrique and Andy Carroll, we wouldn’t be in the Europa League now. Granted not many of them would get into our current starting line up right now, but at the time these were our best players who had gone within a whisker of getting us a top-half finish on our return to the Premier League. For that I will never slate them.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I’m sure that some of the departed players now wish they had the benefit of using it, but they’ve moved on, either by force or by want – whichever you believe, and so should everyone else rather than using it as a petty points scoring exercise.

When you look back there was a reason why people were so glum at the departure of these players, and that was because they were some of our best players at the time, and losing your best players is rarely a good thing. Whilst I never doubted the quality we brought in, I still can’t help but feel that we’ve been lucky in the way that they’ve gelled and performed. Nobody could have second guessed that at the time.

So would I have any of them back going by what I know now? Probably not, but I also won’t be slating them any more as they played a vital role in where we are today.

Others should do the same…

Woud losing Tiote cause the least impact?

It will be for silly money and that cash will be reinvested, but I think the end is nigh for one of our stars.

Why? Call it a gut feeling if you like, or maybe I’ve been listening to the sound bytes coming from the club? Maybe I’ve been conditioned for it? Maybe I just know that if a team with the finances available to cut a deal with us comes calling then said club is also likely to offer higher wages and Champions League football which may well be enough to turn a player anyway?

Whatever the reason for it, I honestly believe we’ll see one star leave which will fund another little spending spree where we see maybe four or five players recommended by Graham Carr arrive. I’m not that gutted about it either in truth as, going by recent history anyway, we’ll see the rest of the squad strengthened, which is really what we need ahead of an assault on the Europe League.

Losing any of them is bad, but I guess it’s about losing the one the which would have the least affect on the team. Yohan Cabaye? I don’t think we can lose him, or Tim Krul, or Coloccini, or Cisse. To replace those would cost what we received for them anyway.

The two that I do think we could replace, or would at least have the least affect should they leave, are Cheik Tiote and Demba Ba. Now before I get hammered for it, please hear me out.

Cheik Tiote can have brilliant games for us, but he’s also been missing for a third of the season through injury and ACoN duty. Add in his suspensions to that and his penchant for living on the edge in games and it could quite easily be more games that he misses. Generally we’ve coped well in his absence although if we did let him leave we would need to find someone to replace him.

Demba Ba is slightly different as I actually don’t think we can replace him. His goals in the first half of the season played a huge part in getting us to where we are today, and his all round play in the second half of the season has been largely excellent. With Demba it’s a question of formation.

I think we play better in a 4-3-3 kind of system, but that system has seen Demba Ba pushed out to the left of an attacking three, almost as a left winger. Would it not be better to have a player who can play in that position naturally rather than trying to fit Ba into a system?

In an ideal world we keep hold of everybody and strengthen anyway, but unfortunately I don’t think that will happen for a number of reasons. So the best I’m hoping for is that we lose one player who won’t have too much affect on us which will allow us to strengthen further, and for me that means losing either Ba or Tiote.

Anyone agree?

Should this Geordie go to the Euros?

He’s had a poor season and a half with Liverpool compared to the excellent standards he achieved with relative ease at Newcastle, but with the European Championships coming up I’m wondering if he is offering enough to be called up?

Carroll made a handful of appearances the season we were relegated but bounced back with the club and scored 19 goals in the Championship, and then took the iconic number nine shirt on our return to the Premiership which he wore in 20 games scoring 11 times. Rightly or wrongly he was forced or asked to leave, depending on who you ask, and made the journey down to Liverpool for a massive £35 million.

As we all know his time on Merseyside has been anything but fruitful for the big number nine. He played well against us in their victory at Anfield in December but was an embarrassment in the return fixture at SJP when he took one of the most blatant dives the Premier League has ever seen. Recently, however, Carroll looks to have turned the corner and started to get back to his best form, just in time for the summer eh?!

So that’s where he stands with his club career, but the question is, could he make the flight to Poland and Ukraine? I have listed below who I think are definite, probable and those who are possibilities

Definite

Wayne Rooney (Manchester United)

Probable

Jermaine Defoe (Tottenham)

Peter Crouch (Stoke City)

Daniel Sturridge (Chelsea)

Danny Welbeck (Manchester United)

Possible

Bobby Zamora (Queens Park Rangers)

Frazier Campbell (Sunderland)

Andy Carroll (Liverpool)

Gabriel Agbonlahor (Aston Villa)

Danny Graham (Swansea)

Grant Holt (Norwich)

Darren Bent (Aston Villa)

For me Rooney picks himself, not that I like him at all but there isn’t any doubt that he will be going. The other striking places are up for grabs. Defoe would usually be selected BUT he hasn’t been playing and will lack match practice. Welbeck and Sturridge have been playing so maybe they both will be strongly fancied to get a place in the squad.

I can’t see places for any of the players I have struck out on the grounds of lack of fitness AND lack of experience at tournaments and I would think the greatest challenge for Crouch’s place is Carroll and vice versa. Crouch has had a solid enough season at the Britannia, but, like Stoke, has fizzled out after a long season including a tiring European campaign.

Andy Carroll on the other hand has had an on-off season with his club, which threatened to get started several times, and has recently started to find his form with a last gasp goal against Blackburn in the league, an FA Cup semi-final winner against Everton and a game changing performance in the final. When I say game changing it did change the game but sadly for Carroll not the result.

All in all I would take Carroll over Crouch because of his recent form. Like many things form is key to everything and can mean the difference between a player sniffing a goal or missing a sitter. In the Football League playoffs every year we see a surprise performance from a team who have just hit form going into the playoffs and this pushes them on to get results. I can see the same happening at the Euros for Carroll. Granted Crouch’s goal record for England is fantastic on paper but his goals have been against lesser sides, with poor, and at times, gungho defences. The only doubts I would have would be with European officials penalising Carroll’s style but in reality I think Crouch would also suffer from whistle happy refs.

I still don’t like him but I hope he packs his bags.

Follow me on Twitter @BillQuayMag

TV money

That figure is a jump of £8m from last season where we brought in just over £46m although most of that can be attributed to finishing 5th instead of 12th.

The top earners were, unsurprisingly, the two Manchester clubs with City coming out on top yet again although both clubs scooped just over £60m for their efforts. Tottenham came third, followed by Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool with us sitting in 7th place. The full table is as follows:

1. Manchester City £60.6m
2. Manchester United £60.3m
3. Tottenham £57.3m
4. Arsenal £56.2m
5. Chelsea £54.4m
6. Liverpool £54.4m
7. Newcastle £54.2m
8. Everton £48.9m
9. Fulham £47.4m
10. West Brom £46.6m
11. Swansea £45.9m
12. Norwich £45.6m
13. Sunderland £44.4m
14. Stoke £43.6m
15. QPR £43.3m
16. Wigan £42.8m
17. Aston Villa £42.1m
18. Bolton £40.6m
19. Blackburn £40.3m
20. Wolves £39.1m

So how have we got to this figure?

Well essentially it’s all about league position and how many games you’ve been on TV for. Each club is guaranteed £32.4m as an equal share of the pot for domestic and overseas TV rights – £13.7m domestic and £18.7m overseas. It is then topped up as follows.

Each club is awarded £755,000 for each league position they finish in. Wolves finished bottom and got just the flat £755,000 whereas we finished 5th so received £12.08m.

Each club then gets another £570,000 per televised game, with a guaranteed minimum amount of £5.7m for each club. We’ve had 15 I believe which takes us up to the £52.4m.

What these figures show is that there isn’t too much difference between us and those at the top of the table. We brought in similar amounts to Chelsea and Liverpool and we’re only £6m off the top earners at Manchester City.

It also shows that we’re only £14m from what the bottom team picked up, which shows how important it is to be in the Premier League as the difference in prize money isn’t that great from top to bottom.

This is where other resources, like sponsorship, merchandising and prize money from other sources comes into play. We may be 7th in this table, albeit only a whisker away from Chelsea and Liverpool, but when you take everything into consideration that gap in income will be much bigger.

Still, £54.2m is not to be sniffed at and will pretty much cover our wage bill, leaving other income streams to be used for other stuff, like maybe team strengthening.

Well, one can dream…

But, overall, and in real perspective, the Europa League is a monumental achievement for NUFC this season. Finishing 5th in the English Premier League is no mean feat at all. Out-doing teams like Chelsea and Liverpool just two seasons after being in the Championship is close to miraculous!

Most will point the credit in the direction of Alan Pardew. The Barclays’ and LMA ‘Manager of the Season’ has had a superb campaign and has been accepted by the majority of the Geordie faithful after his somewhat apprehensive establishment.

Some will say that Pardew has done well, but the recruitment done by the club and the work of backroom staff like Graham Carr should take a lot of the plaudits. Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba, Davide Santon and of course Papiss Cisse, to name but a few, have been pivotal to the success, while players like Cheik Tiote, Fabricio Coloccini, Tim Krul and Jonas Gutierrez have been given the incentive to stay and play well alongside the incomings.

Statistically though, what is it that has actually been different for Newcastle this season and so compelling compared to last season? NUFC_Stats looked into the comparative numbers…

Basics:

NUFC 2010/11 & 2011/12 - Basic comparisons

The basic league data doesn’t show anything we don’t already know – concede less goals, win more games! But, in the context of it all, with just a +5 goal difference this season, it just goes to show how Newcastle have dug out games this season and that they have that so-important ability to hold onto points and see games out now.

Having said, there is still work to be done on the mentality of going behind. When Newcastle have lost games this seasons, they’ve generally done it with style and Alan Pardew is still to win a game as Newcastle manager in the Premier League after going behind!

Percentages:

NUFC 2010/11 & 2011/12 - Percentage data

At look at some of the percentage-based data and what makes very interesting reading is that all of the ‘duel’ values are down on last season. NUFC are 1% down on ground 50-50 duel wins, 1% down on tackle success and 4% down on aerial wins. Certainly with the aerial data, it could be said NUFC have played a very different style to last season, especially with the exit of Andy Carroll and Joey Barton, but the ‘battle-type’ stats are surprising.

Cross and shot accuracy are also down on the last campaign, the 4-3-3 system probably having a big say in the crossing stats but shooting is shooting – another surprising number considering the quality Newcastle now have in attacking areas.

Pass accuracy is slightly better than last season, again, probably down to the style of play and quality of players but the best piece of information from all of the above is the chance conversion rate. That old cliché, ‘goals win games’ fits NUFC’s bill down to a ‘T’ this season – in Ba and Cisse, Newcastle have two of the league’s best predators this season and on countless occasions the pair have shown that they only need minimal chances to make their mark.

Defending:

NUFC 2010/11 & 2011/12 - Defensive comparison

Newcastle nearly doubled last seasons clean sheets this season, with the superb Tim Krul the second highest clean sheet keeper in the Premier League after Joe Hart with 15. NUFC also improved on their goals conceded per game – just 1.34 let in this campaign compared to 1.5 last time.

A pleasing stat is the number of official defensive errors produced by Newcastle this season compared to last, but surprisingly NUFC have lost possession more times than they did in 2010/11 – with pass accuracy and average possession being higher than last time, one would expect that not to be the case.

Attacking:

NUFC 2010/11 & 2011/12 - Attacking comparison

Even the most critical of football enthusiasts would find it hard to argue with Newcastle’s attacking prowess this season. Compared to last season, where going forward the team were very one dimensional in their play, NUFC fans have watched Newcastle ‘slice’ teams open with quick and fluent counter attacking play, especially in the 4-3-3 set up, and moments of breath-taking individual brilliance.

However, that doesn’t seem to be reflected in the numbers for the attacking play this season. NUFC have actually created less chances and less shots compared to last season, although their goal assists are up. One would have predicted probably the opposite considering the aforementioned individual play observed at Newcastle this season and the quality in the team behind the front line.

There aren’t too many surprises with crosses and set play assists – Newcastle haven’t utilised the long ball and direct play methods nearly as much as last season and even Alan Pardew himself has criticised NUFC’s lack of authority from set play situations. Only Swansea (7) and Aston Villa (3) scored less goals than NUFC (8) this season in the Premier League from set pieces, severely deficient for a team with European ambitions.

All-in-all, and whether the statistics agree or not, this has been a wondrous season from Newcastle United Football Club. No one seen this type of achievement coming – after the departure of the so-called ‘top players’ at the club, many had NUFC destined for a survival scrap.

But, Alan Pardew, his staff, the players and the hierarchy at the club deserve mass credit for the hard work and support they have given this season. Clever recruitment, stringent financial decisions and terrific man/team management have this club back where they belong.

Statistically? Well, scoring goals and stopping goals! Less chances created and less shots than last season, but more goals means that the quality Newcastle have had in front of goal this campaign has been of the highest order.

Nearly double the amount of clean sheets from last season and an improvement on goals per game conceded speaks volumes of Newcastle’s development and there is no doubt the club will be initiating talk now on how to progress in that department further.

Here’s hoping that form is continued into next season and the battle for some shiny silverware at some stage!

LMA award for Pardew

He has now been voted the LMA Manager of the Season, which is arguably a better achievement on the grounds that it is an award voted on by fellow managers.

That means that within the game it is recognised how well Pardew and Newcastle have done this season. Granted it finished with a whimper at Everton, but on the whole it’s been first class and has gone way beyond any sane expectations.

Newcastle won half of their games throughout the season which isn’t bad at all and has ensured we finished in a European qualification spot. We’ve recorded 15 clean sheets in those games although the fact that we’ve still conceded so many goals is alarming. In fairness, I don’t think that would have been the case had Steven Taylor avoided a serious injury, and I don’t think it will be the case next season with what will hopefully be a beefed up defence…

All in all Pardew has done well to win this award and it shows that the work that has gone on at Newcastle has been picked up on within the game. Speaking at the awards, Pardew had this to say:

“It is an incredible honour,” said Pardew. “Coming from my fellow managers, this really is as good as it gets and has to be the highlight of my managerial career so far.”

“This award is not just for me. Everything we have achieved has been achieved as a result of an incredible team effort. The board, my coaching staff, backroom team, players and our magnificent supporters – they all play a crucial role and I thank every one of them.”

The key thing now is to prove that it wasn’t a one off and to show we are good enough to do it again next season. With the right player recruitment and a similar approach to this season there is no reason why we can’t, even with the Europa League to contend with.

Only three months to go…