Safe at last?

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I’ve read comments from a few people now who are still apprehensive about our Premier League safety.

So I thought I would crunch the numbers and see just how far away from safety we are. The short answer is, not very far, but let’s go into a bit more detail and see exactly what we need to do and, more importantly, what other teams need to do to if they are to drag us into a relegation battle.

Sow where do we start? I guess the best place to start is with West Ham who currently occupy bottom place in the Premier League.

West Ham United cannot go above us on points. The very best they can do is draw level with us on points if they win their remaining three games against Blackburn, Wigan and Sunderland, and we lose all of our remaining games. If that did happen then goal difference would come into play and West Ham would need to manufacture a situation that will see them have a +22 goal difference over us in the final three games.

Thanks to goal difference Wolves effectively need to win all three of their remaining games against West Brom, Sunderland and Blackburn. They can get away with two wins and a draw, but they’ll have to hope that they can also manufacture a +22 goal difference swing over us.

Wigan need two wins and a draw from their three remaining games to go above us. Once again, if they can somehow achieve a +22 goal difference swing they could get away with just two wins from their final three games. Those games are Aston Villa, West Ham. and Stoke.

At this point it’s worth noting that West Ham and Wigan play each other so there is zero chance of both sides gaining maximum points.

So that is the bottom three taken care of, but I’m also going to include Blackpool in this. They sit in 17th place on the same points as Wigan but with a marginally (one goal) better goal difference. Effectively they need either two wins and a +21 goal difference swing or two wins and a draw from their three games against Tottenham, Bolton and Manchester United.

Remember, this is all based on us losing every game, heavily, and the other teams picking up the results they need whilst scoring a few goals in the process.

It just isn’t going to happen!

So whilst our season may well fizzle out, you can be assured that it is highly, highly unlikely that we’ll go down. Realistically we’ve been safe for a few weeks now, although I do understand why some people have been cautious whilst there is still a mathematical risk of us getting relegated. Hopefully this clarifies just what is needed for us to go down now.

And relax, and breathe.

About toonsy

A lifelong Newcastle fan and current webmaster of this very 'blog who has the sole aim of creating a place by Newcastle United fans, for Newcastle United fans.

45 thoughts on “Safe at last?

  1. On a positive note I suppose this season was just all about staying up, getting another years TV money in and progressing from there.

    My only concern is how much do the board want us to progress and how fast?

    First job done – over to you Mike, you big fat fcking ****!


  2. I think the board want us to progress, but I think it will be don progressively and one step at s time

    Next season we should be going for top ten/comfortable safety. Season after, top eight/europe/top half etc


  3. Aye we are definitely safe now and hopefully Pardew and Carr are on the case to get the players we need in. It would be good to see 2 or 3 in through the door at the start of the window along with Barton and Nolan signing new deals (Jose’s gone IMO)


  4. So assuming theres fire sales at the relegated teams….Might take Ba off West Ham as West Ham wouldn’t be in a position to ask too much. Wigan though..would anyone take nzogbia back? would be great to have in the squad and would allow us to put jonas on the right…but he’s such a **** 😆


  5. Didnt lambias say something before the season about just staying up and being in a position to spend for the season after.

    Well you couldnt be in a much better position to spend: the club set to break even, Fat micks precious tv money in his pocket and £35m up on a player who cost nowt and the wage bill slashed loads and set for more when Campbell/Xisco/Routledge/Enrique/Smith whoever leaves.

    If there is no progress this summer there are no excuses unlike the others since he bought the club…


  6. CC – I haeard it from the horses mouth.

    Llambias said that the aim was to stay up in the first year and we wouldn’t be in a position to ‘punch our weight’ in the transfer market until the second season.

    So if we take into account that, the other outgoing players fee’s and the Carroll money Pardew should have a hell of a warchest. But something tells me it won’t quite work out like that.


  7. 4- We can’t take Ba off West Ham as I think he’s just on loan there.

    A good write up there mate! Hopefully it will stop talk of doom and gloom 🙂

    As has been said already, this season was all about survival, so wherever we finish (17th and above) then we can class the season as a success.


  8. -Arran

    I think he signed a contract with them in January so he is their player, I’m not 100% though


  9. I’d prefer obinna from West Ham. I think they are about gone now. None of the directors were at the game yesterday after they came out and said none of their players had the heart fir the battle. The even included the media’s latest darling Scotty 🙄 Parker in that aswell.


  10. Sy- do you think it will be a good idea making a bin larden joke thread on footy mad? Or will the PC police come after me? 😆


  11. Toonsy-Aye terrible timing that from the director, no idea what he’s up to. Planning on jumping ship maybe? Could be disastrous for the hammers like..their wage bill must be enormous.


  12. We are safe which kinda makes the rest of the season a tad boring! Hope Wolves, Blackpool and Wigan go down now!

    Also when does the transfer window officially open? is it straight away or 30th June or when?


  13. Toonsy – Ah FM never lies then 😆 😆
    Why can’t it be sooner its the most exciting time of the year!


  14. Aye suppose, its better on here 😉

    And someones already dont it, ill just put my input 😆


  15. Spencer, I wish!

    I haven’t been on in a while because the charger for my laptop is fcked 👿


  16. Unlucky mate, my laptop kept breaking so I got a PC for x’mas. Quite good for games aswell. :mrgreen:


  17. Richie – Isn’t Smith out of contract at the end of the season? I can’t see him accepting a major wage cut.

    Xisco will probably get offloaded to a spanish side. I personally would like to see him get a run of games, but that won’t happen


  18. 😆 😆

    Myne’s quality, love it way more than my laptop, only problem is it dosent have wireless and I dont have one of them wireless docks for my xbox so I can use internet on both of them at the same time, im looking at investing in something that means I can though :mrgreen:


  19. I think Smith has still got a year left on his contract – can see him sticking it out – not hopeful of shifting Xisco either unfortunately


  20. Arran…Smith has a year left and Xisco 2……I’d be more hopeful of Smith going but not 100%. Xisco knows he can just play for Spanish teams for the next 2 years and get paid twice what he would if he signed for them permanently and who can blame him?
    I’m sure there’s a reason why he hasn’t been given a chance by the various managers, I’m guessing ‘cos he’s either got a crap attitude or he just isn’t good enough or both. He hasn’t exactly set the Spanish league alight whilst over there either 😉


  21. aye richie, but I dont no what it is, when he set up Carroll vs villa he looked good and sharp, must be a shyte attitude, cos he cant be worse than wor shola and lovo 😆


  22. Spencer…aye, he’s had plenty of different managers to impress if he really wanted to stay, so I’m guessing he just hasn’t bothered his arse…..but as I’ve said, he’s not exactly been great in Spain either 😕


  23. Nah. nowt to report. there will be so much rubbish rumours flying about with agents trying to link us with anybody


  24. lads, ive go a nice fifa free kick coming up soon…

    Guess who scored it….. RAYLOR 😛


  25. ive heard a rumour “richie” will be getting some paper-work on tues,he better or hes going in the slammer 😆


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