In truth there could still be variables which I’ll go into later. But now the transfer window has shut and we know what players we have until January at least I guess now is as good a time as any for me to ask you where you think we’ll finish this season.
The variables I mentioned earlier being things like injuries, player form and so on. Obviously they will have an effect on things but to a certain extent they can’t be legislated for. Injuries can happen at any point as can peaks and trough in player form. It’s the same with every player at every club so in that sense I guess there is some form of level playing field.
The question of whether or not we’ve improved on last year is a tricky one to answer. In certain areas we have while in certain areas we are weaker. For example we have a rather tasty midfield this year and I’m more confident in the defence. On the flipside of that I’m not overly confident about the depth in defence and feel that an injury to either Steven Taylor or Fabricio Coloccini could really hurt us. Especially whilst Mike Williamson is out injured.
Also I feel that we are weaker up front, but that’s only because Demba Ba hasn’t hit the ground running as of yet plus the fact we have the benefit of hindsight. Exactly how many people though Carroll would score the amount of goals he did for us in the Premier League before the start of last season?
The way I see it is that we are very close to being better than last year. In fact I’d say that we are a striker and a defender away from being a very decent Premier League team. It’s all irrelevant now though I guess as this window is closed and we have only got what we have got.
However, being a bit more positive, I do believe that this team can make up for certain areas where we are lacking. We have much more pace now and also have actual wingers that can play out wide in place of a central midfielder. We’ve yet to really click, yet we’ve managed to accrue 7 points already. That isn’t bad going at all and leads me to believe that with more time and a bit more understanding we could see a continuation of decent results.
Much will be made of the fact that we’ve lost a lot of goals from the team. Fair enough as that can’t be argued. One thing I will point out is something that I’ve read when people criticise Leon Best – about how his hat-trick against West Ham last season distorts the figures. Surely the same applies for both Carroll and Nolan? In fact 33% of Nolan’s goals came in two games last season.
The goals can be replaced. If Demba Ba can recapture the 1 in 2 form that he has had throughout his career then he’ll easily match the 11 goals from Andy Carroll whilst I’m fairly confident that Hatem Ben Arfa, Yohan Cabaye and a few other can grab 12 between them to replace Nolan’s goals.
Anyway I’m starting to waffle and I’m beginning to turn this into one of those “are we better off” articles. It was never intended to be that although obviously some comparisons had to be made.
Right now though it’s question time.
[poll id=”37″]
Wow, so far I’m the only one who voted out the top 10.
Had we got some depth in defense and a decent striker that knows about movement, to open space for teamates, I would have said top 10 for sure.
As it stands I think we’ll finish 13th to 8th…
JJ(Quote)
6-7th no probs…
asim(Quote)
Too many ifs buts and maybes for me there, toonsy.
We can only go off what we know and that’s Strolla won’t play a full season and won’t get 10 league goals, Lovenkrands isn’t good enough and Best (well the jury’s still out).
I see us in 10th come January and 12th at the end of the season – unless we bring a couple of players in, in January and then I can see us finishing maybe 7/8th.
Stuart79(Quote)
I see the Liverpool fans really rate Carroll 😆
http://www.liverpool-kop.com/2011/09/theres-only-one-andy-carroll-and-hes.html
toonsy(Quote)
Stuart – but there was also ifs and buts last season too remember.
IF Andy Carroll can cut it
IF Kevin Nolan hasn’t lost it
IF Joey Barton can keep injury free
IF those players who got us relegated could rise to the challenge.
toonsy(Quote)
Can’t see the top or bottom 6. Which means 7th – 15th. Looking at the competition I think we are as good as any of them. So 7 – 10 for me. However, we will need to strengthen in January to guarentee it.
premandup(Quote)
Think we’ll get a fairly decent amount of points in before the inevitable injuries and suspensions hit us. Because our squad is too light to cope with those,
I think around 13th will be the mark.
If we’d had a top striker bought in the window, I would have forecast 8-10th.
taken4mugs(Quote)
With so many CLASS players in our squad I’ll be shocked if we don’t qualify for the Champion’s League.
ps; if we don’t qualify for the Champion’s League that does not make the above statement a lie. It is merely what I believe to be true at the time posting.
Toon Chicken(Quote)
Agree with Premandup @ 6.
Although I did a full season on the PL forecast site and Newcastle came 4th. And I only had us with 5 points at this stage. 😛
I think more likely would be about 10th.
I really don’t expect a relegation struggle, but this is Newcastle – anything can happen.
Brisvegas(Quote)
between 08th and relegated is my best guess.
craig chisholm(Quote)
Agree with Brisvegas agreeing with me. 🙂
premandup(Quote)
I agree with Premandup agreeing with me agreeing with him
Brisvegas(Quote)
I am going with us finishing anywhere between 1st and 20th.. just to be safe.
I think we will do pretty well this season, I think if we can stay clear of injuries for at least another 2 weeks to our most important first team players we should be fine. Once Tiote and Ba finish with Ramadam, they will start to put in some top performances, and if Ben Arfa gets maybe.. 3 full weeks of training and first team action without getting injured due to a shocking tackle (again) I can safely say we will finish 9th-11th
Ameobi No.9(Quote)
I was spot on with my forecast last season. I said we’d be somewhere between 6th and 18th. Eat your heart out Troy Stavers and your crystal balls.
Brisvegas(Quote)
I will say 8th
Liam Southern Toon(Quote)
I hate these Monday night games. Up at 4am, bleary eyed, still a bit cold at this time of year, but a drop of whisky on my cornflakes usually perks me up 😆
Brisvegas(Quote)
if we sign a striker and defender in jan we could even finish 7th!
Liam Southern Toon(Quote)
9th.
Whumpie(Quote)
To be fair I’m less inerested in position, more interested in points. Last season we got 46 and we dropped a dozen more. I expect at least 50 points this season, maybe 55+
premandup(Quote)
We have a pretty solid defence, what looks like a dam good keeper, we have an excellent central midfield, with a bit more pace and guile out wide or further forward (in Ben Arfa), it’s just upfront, and Best and/or Ba may well come good.
Good management and decent squad integration, with youth let loose at the right times we really shouldn’t see anybody above us over and above the top 6. It won’t necessarily be so, Stoke and Fulham are solid teams now, but it really could and almost should be top 7 (to 9).
lionelspeed(Quote)
Who do people think have a really good chance of finishing above us apart from a so-called top 6?
lionelspeed(Quote)
http://yfrog.com/nwfvogj
Stuart79(Quote)
I think Liverpool will finish 3rd this year, with the two Mancs above them and Chelski in fourth. (Got a feeling it’s not their year.) Spuds and **** will fight for 5th.
Below that, it’s anyone’s game.
Whumpie(Quote)
Im going to say 8th.
johno toon(Quote)
@13……….ramadan finsihed on sept 29th mate.. near on two weeks ago.
craig chisholm(Quote)
I think we are going to be around 7-10th spot. Like premandup said @ 19, we dropped a fair few points last year. So far we look defensively good enough to maybe cut out mistakes like last year, eg scum and spurs games.
Anyone seen paul merson on skysports reckon we will lose on monday 2-1, doesnt he know we have class players????
AlanPardewProject(Quote)
man utd
man city
liverpool
chelski
spurs
arsenal
villa
bolton
stoke
fulham
newcastle
everton
sunderland
qpr
west brom
norwich
wolves
swansea
wigan
blackburn
craig chisholm(Quote)
I’ve been sensible and gone for 11-15 because this is a pretty new squad now that despite the good start, will have bad moments and it will be about how they respond after a couple of losses. Also I am not convinced about our depth in defence or quality up front. With that in mind, I reckon 11th or 12th.
Shamrock(Quote)
Think we will have one of the best midfields in the Premiership. Worth a punt at 6th.
Groucho(Quote)
Depends on injuries, without anything major think around 8th. Anything bad happens to our defence and we plummet.
Been reading the articles and comments here for a couple of months now, wasted many an hour at work. Keep up the good work!
Ryan(Quote)
Somewhere between 9th and 12th for me. A striker, CB cover, and quality RB would have made all the difference and put us in the top 8. Why not sack Llambias for his incompetence Ashley and we can get the team headed in the right direction?
GeordieTwo(Quote)
I chose 11th – 15th because 7th – 12th didn’t exist
Think top 6 is pretty much sewn up with Man City, Man U, Chelski, Liverpool, **** and Spurs after that we can compete with anyone on our day – depends how many ‘days’ we have
stevep(Quote)