How can you be lucky over 24 games?

A lucky 3-0 win over Manchester United
So here we are, sitting pretty in 5th in the table, just a point behind Chelsea in 4th with two of our next three games being at St James’ Park.

Naturally it’s all down to luck and good fortune, you know two commodities that Newcastle United always benefit from!

Sarcasm aside, that is the perception from some pundits, presenters, ex-professionals, and even from some, just a tiny minority, of our own fans who are waiting for this bubble to burst and for something to go wrong, presumably just so they can say how right they were all along.

Now we all know we are weak in terms of cover at the back. It’s been covered so many times now so I won’t go over it again. Suffice to say that pretty much everyone is in agreement that we could have done with an extra defender in January and know that an injury in the wrong position could have a bad effect on our season. However that is an if or a but, and for this one I want to look at what has happened already rather than what may or may not happen in the final 14 league games of what could be a fantastic season for us.

As I said earlier, we are 5th in the league which is down to luck apparently. Now I’m pretty sure that it’s impossible to be that lucky. Maybe over a run of a few games, but not over nigh on two thirds of the season. The premise of this ‘luck’ is because we aren’t really playing well or thumping teams and are instead grinding out the results.

I don’t see a problem with that. We’ve all been told for years that this is what “good” teams do so why is it any different for us? Look at the league, look at the usual suspects. None of them have been prolific yet they are all picking up the results in a very similar unspectacular fashion to ourselves. Of course teams have purple patches. Look at Manchester City at the start of the season. They pretty much thumped everyone put in front of them, but it didn’t last.

The fact is that three points are three points, and if you keep picking them up then the league table will reflect that. We’re fifth because we are the fifth best team in terms of getting results after 24 games. Not through luck, not through anything else in fact, other than our ability to get the job done!

Does anyone still think we’ve been lucky? Really? I mean on the odd occasion we’ve had a slice of luck, much in the same way that we’ve had luck desert us on occasion. It happens and it isn’t out of the ordinary.

We’re 5th because we deserve to be 5th!

About toonsy

A lifelong Newcastle fan and current webmaster of this very 'blog who has the sole aim of creating a place by Newcastle United fans, for Newcastle United fans.

96 thoughts on “How can you be lucky over 24 games?

  1. We are fifth becasue our boys play as a unit and scrap, whilst we have the 2nd most clinical striker in the PL – partly thanks to the service provided by his teammates.

    We have shown versatility tactically on many an occasion and have rarely folded after going behind. What we have is a proper team. Compare that to the likes of Nzogbia, Owen, Geremi et all who all conrinuted to our downfall with bad attitudes and you can see that money does not always buy class.

    Like Toonsy says, without dwelling on how weak we are defensively, we are in a great position now and no luck is involved – we could be on the verge of some great times ahead if our coaching/scouting team stay together and we continue in this direction. Happy days 😀

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  2. i think people speak about luck because we are not playing well as you said. But I think what people call luck is our great goalkeeper who for me is the most important player this year and our incredible Demba ba ba who scored almost every game. And no one was expecting that this 2 players have this level this year, so that seems luck for other i think.

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  3. We have ‘ridden our luck’ on a few ocassions but to say the season has been down to luck overall is weel wide of the mark – perhaps we’ve just managed to avoid the bad luck we’ve had in recent years!

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  4. Toonsy, Brilliant article!!! I’m glad this has been highlighted. I think this also highlights to a small minority of fans that think Pardew has been ‘lucky’ and it’s ‘just down to the players’ which in itself is a contradiction in terms.

    I hope some of these pundits (Lawro and Merson I’m looking at you) will eventually wake up. They obviously just go on last seasons form. If we finish in 5th this season just watch them fickely tout us for win after win next season.

    I’m so glad our lads prove them wrong week after week. :mrgreen:

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  5. HBA@2 If some people think that a keeper saving a shot should be classed as luck then i believe they’re wrong. Is Krul not a part of the team? He’s doing his job. If Ba shoots and scores that must be luck also as that is his job.

    It’s not luck, it’s skill. :mrgreen:

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  6. We HAVE ridden our luck on some occasions but we have also been unlucky in others, what with major injuries (again) in the season and key players out. You can’t tell me Cabaye’s ban was right so that comes under the unlucky section.

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  7. @Nobby6
    that is what i think 2. This guy are on fire this year but that’s skill and not luck. I just hope next season they will be there at the same level.

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  8. I think Tim Krul has been excellent this season and is already one of the best shot stoppers in the league. He still needs to work on his distribution, but he has plenty of time to work on that.

    He has grown up learning from Shay Given and Steve Harper, so we should expect him to demonstate similar abilities – however I am very impressed by his communication with his defenders, something Given and Harper lacked slightly.

    He has certainly been a key part of our success so far this season, as HBA39 points out. 😀

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  9. Like young Sean says we have ridden iur luck a few times. But more often than not the only luck we have had is bad luck.
    We are where we are due to real gritty performances and team spirit.

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  10. good article, we’re as lucky as any other team at the top, or prehap not as lucky due to the financial constraints we have…not complaining but some would say theyre lucky to have all that dosh to buy a ticket for the Champions league. we’ve done it the proper way 😀

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  11. It does feel though we’ve had some luck this season, but no more than any other teams, i think it’s just a weird sensation as over the past few years our luck has been non-existent!

    The boggest piece of luck this season to happen to us was actually against us, best defence in the league before that Chelsea game, one red card that wasn’t almost derailed our season.

    What we have got extremely good at is grinding out results, someone on here quoted Sir Bobby the other day with him saying that was our teams weakness when he was managing us, very true, and it’s a fantastic asset to have.

    Very excited for the second half, we have Cisse to play, hopefully Santon and HBA to feature more and hopefully a fully fit and buzzing Tiote. People forget how little Tiote has featured this season, he’s only played 14 games! And the first few he looked out of sorts.
    Those 4 players in the team can provide the boost needed to see us through to the end of the table at 6th.

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  12. @Big Dave

    good luck 2day m8 with your sons trials. Remember, Shearer did do too well as a kid..the rest is history 😀

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  13. Agree with Nobby, Krul making save after save isn’t luck, it’s him doing his job, is Ba scoring goal after goal luck or him doing his job? Is the opposition missing chance after chance luck? nope, it’s them failing to dop their job.
    Reet off hoose hunting again, wish me luck 😉

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  14. Its as much to do with canny scouting, good management to get some fairly average players playing above themselves, organisation and determination, Every team needs luck and weve had our fair share.

    To flip that i can think of some bad luck going against us, The david luiz incident, the fulham match turned by fat tefal man mason, The man city match where nowt went right, larrson in the derby, The norwich injury crisis, The free kick them scouse cunts scored from at 1-1, Even the 6 minutes villa managed to magic up by kicking **** through wor players…

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  15. Here we go again.

    Luck is just subjective perception. It’s when a series of events over which one has no direct control have an outcome which one finds suitable, or to have gone in ones favour.

    Ok, so, WHO is it that thinks we’ve JUST been lucky?

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  16. Mark cheers Lol he is only away to school 15 mins ago after going on all morning 😯 with me telling him 100 times to hurry up and eat your breakfast 😆

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  17. ” I love the fact that when we play poorly and win it’s described as ‘luck’, yet when M Utd do it they claim it to be a sign of champions.”

    That is fairly obviously because Man U win consistently at the top of the league and have done for many seasons.
    To outsiders we have only looked good for approximately one season recently.
    If we perform at the same level for the next two or three seasons then the perception of Newcastle will change accordingly.

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  18. Yeah agree with Pootle, it’s up to the team next season to show that this wasn’t a one enough fluke season, this is our ability and this is where we’re here to stay.

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  19. lucky??

    that’s not what i’m hearing oot my telly/radio or reading on the net – high praise for newcastle is all i’m getting.

    chill – it aint happening.

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  20. Sean 😀 well aslong as you feel young thats the main thing 😉
    Richie i’ll give you that one 😉 im just glad I still have hair on me heed 😆

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  21. richietoon

    good luck m8, terrible market atm, cheaper houses nu but the prices have dropped that much, ppl arent selling 😕

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  22. Losing Stesh Taylor for the season has cost us numerous points. He was the best defender in the league up to that point. I think we have been unlucky.

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  23. I think its quite a fair assessment to say we’ve been “lucky” this season if those same people are saying we have been “unlucky” in previous seasons.

    There really isn’t any such thing as luck. What is it exactly? Define the term?

    Personally, I think if we finish top seven this season, we would do very very well to repeat that the next season. Which is why, in the situation we are in, we need to push hard to get as high as possible.

    I remember Ipswich finishing 5th on season, and everybody said it was luck. The next season they got relegated 😯 .

    Pootle is right, until we can consistantly perform on this level, for a few seasons at least, we are simply going to be labelled as having one lucky season.

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  24. “Luck is just subjective perception. It’s when a series of events over which one has no direct control have an outcome which one finds suitable, or to have gone in ones favour.”

    OK, so you agree with me that it isn’t luck that’s got us to where we are…

    “If we perform at the same level for the next two or three seasons then the perception of Newcastle will change accordingly.”

    Does this then imply that you believe it’s OK for outsiders to call it luck simply down to the length of time we’ve been doing it?

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  25. :mrgreen: We’ve got a good chance of making 4th. We as fans need to belive this. Once our belief rubs off onto the players then anything is possible ……even beating man united 3-0

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  26. Taylors injury = bad luck. Early return of the Dembas = good luck (for us, not them)

    Not losing any more CB’s while woefully short of cover = very good luck (so far, keep your fingers crossed)

    Luck/bad luck is just a ‘broad brushstrokes’ way of describing events over which you can’t have full direct control.

    It is annoying we didn’t get the centreback, because it leaves us needing, events we can’t fully control to fall our way. Ie no injuries or dismissals between now and the end of the season.

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  27. ” Does this then imply that you believe it’s OK for outsiders to call it luck simply down to the length of time we’ve been doing it?”

    It’s a subjective perception, so of course its alright.
    Which means that disagreeing with outsiders about it is alright too.

    Read what JJ said. He sums it up.
    If next season we bomb, then it will look to any outsider that this season was fairly lucky.
    Why?
    Because we were unable to repeat i, which makes it look to outsiders that we don’t really have control.

    Remember lucky/unlucky is just away of describing if events you can’t directly control favour you or not.

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  28. all good dave & very busy.

    & if there’s any luck knocking aboot then i hope it’s all with your bairn the day m8.

    dave do everyone a favour – the next time chicken **** shows his face give it a good slapping with a wet kipper.

    see ya.

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  29. I think relying on luck as far as the defensive shortage goes is bad decision making.
    It could put a serious dent in what has been a far better season than anyone seriously expected.
    Hopefully it won’t. Hopefully we’ll be lucky. I don’t think its clever to leave something so important down to crossing your fingers when there are several measures that could have been taken to reduce the risk involved.

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  30. Cant believe some of the comments…… Man U, chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal, Man C, Liverpooll have all ridden their luck on many occasions this year …. no one goes a whole season being free from luck.

    Look at manu they never get any bad decisions against them.

    The table never lies 😀

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  31. Roy 😉 will do mate, don’t be a stranger.
    Pootle I have said many times we shouldn’t rely on ‘luck’ we often get some saying if this team wins it will help us, if that team lose, if the ref seen this or that, if we got a bit of luck, blah blah blah, we have our destiny in our own hands. Thats what we can control, and if we do that we will be ok we can’t rely on others to help us out, or refs because we can’t control all that so we shouldn’t rely on it either. 😉

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  32. Still not sure who the fans are that the article is having a tilt at.

    Are there really any Newcastle fans who think our whole season so far is down to luck?

    Pundits are more like bookies. They are basing their views on form and their opinions of players. If Newcastle sustain this season and start next season well the pundits views will begin to change accordingly.
    Unlike bookies the pundits do sometimes allow their personal preferences to affect their judgement.

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  33. Liam

    Gary Player, a South African and one of the best golfers in history said this…

    “The harder I practise, the luckier I get!”

    “Luck” doesn’t have to be defined as something negative. No doubt things have gone for us this season, an in certain regards we have been fortunate.

    Just because we have had the fortune we have been lacking in recent seasons, doesn’t mean people are saying we don’t deserve to be where we are.

    Yes, we have been lucky, but we have put in a lot of hard work earn a bit of luck. I think you’ll find, the better our team mentality and skill levels become, the luckier we’ll get! 😀

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  34. Are people still calling us lucky?!

    Pundits now are backing us to win games (which I’m not sure I’m happy about). Certainly, people were calling us lucky right up to Dec or the other on was “they still haven’t played anyone yet”. Then they all had our bubble burst after the Man C, Man U, Chelski games didnt they. But now I only hear praise for Pardew and the players.

    I’ll admit that I put it down to luck at the start of the season (after our pre season, what else could it be?!), I’ll even admit that that thought remained in the back of my head right up until the QPR game. It was that game when I realised that Newcastle aren’t lucky, they just work hard and win ugly!!
    Then the 2nd half of Fulham and the Brighton game made me doubt that. But I think the 2nd half at Fulham was just a freak where you get 11 players all switch off at the same time as the opposition up their game. Brighton, we could have won, afew bad decisions by Pardew but heavily depleated squad, then back to winning ways – the ugly way.
    The only game I can say I have been truly disappointed with this season was Liverpool. We set up negative and tried to play defensive rather than to our strengths, I’m not saying we could have won but certainly made a better game of it.
    However the games against Stoke and Man Utd more than make up for that game. We looked a really force against those 2 teams and I think the Man U game was the one that made the pundits sit up and realise this is luck.
    Stoke and Man Utd were comprehensive victories, but if we don’t get another like those for the rest of the season, I’ll take work hard, win ugly every game me.

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  35. Pootle you would be surprised. In fact there is a small amount of fans that i honestly believe sometimes want us to ‘trip up’ just so they can say I Told you so… The proof is on the net for all to read.

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  36. JJ – I have no problem with luck mate in fact i Love it … im saying the comments on here are suggesting we are only there for luck which is crazy as everyone needs luck (ie manu)

    Luck is such a boring word aswell 😎

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  37. Look at the Man United game for example…

    In year’s gone by, when we were denied that earlier stone wall penalty, fans would have said, “Ah ye we went on the lose, but had that penalty been given it would have been a different game, we were just unlucky again”

    Yet, this year we have the right mentality, and despite certain decisions not going our way, we keep fighting knowing that our hard work will eventually pay off…

    Against Man United we went on to thrash them, against Brighton it cost us our place in the FA Cup Fifth round.

    Football games are a bit like being a professional poker player. On the day, a lot of it comes down to luck, and we have certainly had our share of match days were luck has gone our way. Others it hasn’t.

    But if you keep your head and you play the right percentages, eventually the skill factor overides the luck element.

    What it has shown us perhaps, is that in previous years, were many fans kept saying Newcastle has been “cursed” or “devoid” or good fortune, perhaps we just havn’t been good enough, or as good as we thought we were… 🙁 😆

    It can’t work one way and not the other…

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  38. And on the ManU subject, we havent benefited from a dodgy decision since the game at their place and the subsequent **** storm caused by Ferguson, but we have had plenty against us, unbelievable the influence they have on the league and match officials.

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  39. No such thing as luck – it’s an attitude thing, people who go for things and have a glass half full attitude invariably get more than those who are negative and rarely look for opportunities as they think they’ll never win or get anything
    We’ve had as many bad decisions go against us as for us as well as injuries – wouldn’t call that luck

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  40. POOTLE –

    If I was asked to expain luck , I’d describe it as an uncontrollable change of fortune.

    Baring this in mind, when you say; “Not losing any more CB’s while woefully short of cover = very good luck (so far, keep your fingers crossed)”, I’d have to disagree.

    Keeping people fit isn’t luck. However, losing a player to an injury which was out of their control is down to luck.

    We may have taken a slight risk by not signing another CB, but to suggest that if we get by from now ’til the end of the season without an injury to one of our current CB’s would be lucky is wrong mate.

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  41. Gary

    So, if Coloccini stays fit, it would not be lucky for us. But if he gets injured, it WOULD be unlucky… 😕 🙄

    If you are going to talk about “luck” in the equation, its has to work both ways mate…

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  42. Luck? Not a chance! 😎

    We had a brilliant run for about a third of the season. That came down to amazing team spirit, brimming confidence and pure, straight hard-work. Later on we had some trouble along the way. There were some terrible decisions against us, we had some injuries to key players (they went down fighting), we lost a few games to better teams (we went down fighting as well) and we even lost our concentration and went balls-up against the run of play once or twice. Let’s not forget the ACON which has been scheduled in advance which cost us 2 iconic and influential players.

    Administratively, we got out of debt, Mr. Carr worked real hard to idenitify young and affordable talent. Since he did his job, they turned out to be actual talent. We didn’t waste money on oversized egos and we off-loaded some who wanted to leave the Club. Along the way Mr. Pardew made some great tactical decision, and perhaps he misread a couple of games. But we did manage snag a striker with a decent reputation, which was arguably under the radar of many (outside the Bundesliga). Oh and he scored on his debut. And we’re now 5th due to points amassed over the past 24 games (no magic points there).

    So, where in all of this is luck involved? 😆

    Don’t bite my head of guys, just a running commentary of my views so far…

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  43. Dont know about luck, but since relegation what we have seen is a marked improvement in work rate and player attitude. We have seen an improvement in player performance all over the pitch. We have a great team spirit now and work ethic.
    These things all contribute to making our own good luck. But generally I would say things even themselves out over the season with our very own slice of bad luck, ie poor ref decisions, injuries etc.
    The club is moving forwards on and off the pitch year on year. What more can we ask for?
    Is this down to luck? No.
    And if we only finish 7th this year, I still wont cry as it will still be progress from the previous season. Next year we will be in an even stronger position, to push on once again.
    I get a feeling lessons are being learnt (slowly) by owner, chairman, manager and players.
    Howay the Lads

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  44. JJ –

    That’s wrong mate.

    How can you justify a person staying fit as luck? Most people are fit 99% of their life. Would you therefore suggest they’ve been lucky every day that they haven’t had an injury?

    I think you’ll find that it’s much more down to the fact that they haven’t been unlucky.

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  45. Pootle – There was a comment yesterday from someone saying we’d been lucky. Two actually now I think about it. Although im on my phone at the moment and can’t be arsed to pick them out as it will drain my battery 🙄

    Thus why I said a tiny minority. They are still out there, just not many of them. Ask Army69 about his sister for example. That would be three just off the top of my head.

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  46. I see Lawro has predicted a 2-0 humping on saturday 😈
    He doesn’t think we will produce any oportunities for our strikers.
    Oh how I hope he is wrong AGAIN 😆

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  47. kna its not luck mind we have been unlucky with injurys,i dont need to name them everybody knows them,me ime unlucky i have to put up with
    RICHIE and JJ now that is real bad luck 😀

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  48. JJ @41 – you beat me to it! Classic quote, although apparently Player admits he took it from somewhere else and it goes back centuries. Cracking line, nevertheless.

    I must admit that I’ve noticed a change in tone recently. Up until the last couple of weeks, pundits would talk about whether Liverpool were still going to make the CL positions, while ignoring us being comfortably above them. With us, the talk was generally about ‘how long we can keep it up for’.

    That’s changed. TalkSport have definitely been clear about how we’re as much in that race as Chelski and the bindippers. I hate to say it, but I think the media have been very complimentary and balanced.

    Blimes. 😯

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  49. I don’t think we’ve done that badly with injuries. We’ve really missed Saylor, but remember a couple of years back when we had 11 major players out at once?

    AfCON and bans have hit us harder, I think.

    So far. 😯

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  50. Cant be lucky over 24 games simple as.A question for you fellas would any 1 be willing to let taylor go this summer if we got a 10 mil bid for him? 😯

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  51. Speaking of refereeing,our penalties awarded vs. conceded statistic is absolutely shocking and it has cost us points

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  52. Batty – perfect example there. I think we’ve had it pretty balanced this season compared to our usual.

    Who cares? Happy where we are, and excited about tomorrow’s game. It’ll be interesting to see how the ‘Arry for Ingerlund’ saga has effected their players.

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  53. ToonArmyElite – definitely wouldn’t want to sell Raylor (assuming it’s him and not Saylor you’re referring to.)
    He’s the perfect example of how we’ve managed to get to 5th on so little budget. To do that you need versatile, positive players who’ll give their all no matter where the manager puts them. Raylor’s put in great shifts for LB, RW and AM.
    I don’t think you’d get £10m for him because other clubs haven’t got our business model or strategy. But he’s worth it to us. I bet he’s on reasonable wages too.

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  54. Can’t believe Roy Crapper still has a ***** for me after all this time.

    I suppose I should be flattered! 😯

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  55. ” How can you justify a person staying fit as luck? Most people are fit 99% of their life. Would you therefore suggest they’ve been lucky every day that they haven’t had an injury?

    I think you’ll find that it’s much more down to the fact that they haven’t been unlucky.”

    If a person is playing a contact sport then it is ridiculous to suggest they have a 99% chance of staying fit most of the time.

    It is a risk to play our final games with no defensive cover. You said as much yourself. Therefore if we knowingly take a risk in which we can’t fully control the outcome, then if that risk works in our favour we have been lucky. If it doesn’t work we have been unlucky.
    We may also consider the risk taking needless or reckless if it could easily be avoided.
    I honestly didn’t think it was that hard to understand?

    Coloccini has already been injured this season. So assessing the risk of him getting injured as being less than 1% is plainly silly. He is playing a contact sport.

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  56. my team to play droopys 11

    —————–krul——————
    simpson—-colo-willo—-santon

    obertan–guthrie-perch–jonas

    ———-cisse——-ba————-

    subs
    elliott
    kadar
    ferguson
    gosling
    ben arfa
    lovenkrands
    shola

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  57. My personal feeling is that our luck has been fairly well balanced this year. In fact Taylors injury aside, I think we have had some pretty decent luck.
    I think it will turn out to be lucky for Newcastle that Senegal bombed at the ACON

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  58. TC don’t talk bad about wor Roy or you’ll get slapped about the head with a wet kipper.
    Now talk about luck I would say Batty is a very lucky man, in that he has Ice working for him, and doing all the work. 😆

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  59. Rednapper admits he would love to do the England Job but couldnt do both, this after yesterday saying, honestly.. I havent even given it a seconds thought 🙄

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  60. Because shola and best would have had us floundering until the Dembas returned.

    We have earned our position in the league, largely through Pardews efforts in motivating the team, it seems.

    We were also lucky that Cabaye and Ba managed to aclimatise after just three or four games because they have been huge for us this season

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  61. I think every team gets a bit of luck in a game , a bounce of a ball goes their way they get a ref decision which should not of their way and I do belive they even themselves out through the course of the season. But its not luck we are 5th its been down to hard work and having a good team. Its like the season we went down , we didnt go down casue we were unlucky , we went down casue we were **** and deserved it.

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