Taking the Positives – I have a dream

Premandup

I have a dream...
I have a dream…
It’s 50 years since Martin Luther King gave that momentous speech on the 28th August 1963, a mere eight years after we last won a major domestic competition – The FA Cup 1955 for the younger readers.

Since then the world has changed dramatically with the removal racial discrimination laws in most countries, except for Australian Aborigines and Native Americans. And of course the Geordie Nation is still waiting for a major honour.

I had thought of rewriting that speech but decided not even I am that pompous and presumptuous. However it did get me thinking because one thing is clear, the vision of the owner for the future of this club is not apparent. We are all guessing. Some look at the lack of spending and assume that as long as we clear relegation he will be happy. Whilst others look at the starting 11 and conclude that with a bit of luck it’s at least as good as any outside of the top six. Our finances are the 7th biggest in England, admittedly only just, but in the top 20 in Europe. It seems to me that a bit of analysis could reveal a bit more.

My starting point was the 2012 annual report for Sports Direct. Since this is the source of our owners wealth it seemed logical to see how much control he has. And a masterpiece of an annual report it is. However I could not get everything I wanted out of that so I had to resort to the press which given Mike Ashley’s notoriously private lifestyle is highly unreliable. However it would appear that Mike’s role in the company as Executive Deputy Chairman would indicate that he is not hands on day to day. It would also appear that that role is unpaid. So where does he get his money from? Well there is a bonus scheme which if the company grows he receives extra shares, but that has been scuppered, and he would not have got them until 2018.

However he does still own 70+% of the company shares and the dividends paid per share are zero, so no money there. He did sell £86.8m worth of property to Sports Direct, hopefully that will be enough to live on. What all this leads me to believe is that although Mike Ashley’s current worth is valued at £1.5bn most of that is asset rich and the degree of liquidity is not clear. Obviously plenty to live off but unlikely that he has a couple of hundred million in the bank waiting to spend on new players. Similarly I think his influence at Sports Direct whilst obviously not the absolute leader he was before floatation is still significant. Whether he could persuade the board to sponsor NUFC to the tune of tens of millions is debatable especially as they seem to be getting lots of coverage for free.

The first vision is to compete with the best. Now to do that with a level playing field we would need squad expenditure that is comparable with them. In other words our wage bill would have to double to compete with Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs, or treble to compete with the Manchester clubs and Chelsea. This means our turnover as a club would need to grow to about £200m from the less than £100m that it is now. Then we would need to buy the players. This means that we would be looking to Mike to spend maybe £200m or £300m up front and then subsidise us to the tune of £100m per annum. Now that is not going to happen because firstly I doubt that he wants to do it and secondly I doubt that he could afford to do it himself or persuade Sports Direct that it benefits them enough to do it. Perhaps we can sell out to somebody else who does want to do that, It won’t be some robbing barsteward like some of our previous owners who used the club as a cash cow. Something you can’t accuse Mike Ashley of doing.

The next vision would be to be best of the rest, finishing top ten every season and getting good cup runs. From a financial viewpoint that is actually where we are. Bit of strengthening here and there running the club soundly that is the reality for NUFC. Whether that is being achieved or not is open to debate. Our Manager may not be good enough for a top six club but he has proven himself to be a competent Premier League manager although some don’t like him. Our DoF is not up to the job as he proved this window. And our club structure could be improved. The danger with this vision is that there is not much margin for error. Last season QPR out spent us on every front, with wages at £86m (to our £68) and were still relegated. Realistically nobody outside the top six is safe.

The final vision, for which there is is no evidence in the accounts whatsoever, is to asset strip and sell. This means selling off our best players and highest earners and replacing with cheap imports and hoping to stay in the gravy train of the Premier League. The problem with this vision is that there are no monies disappearing from the club in to the owners’ pockets, unlike previous owners.

Also the disaster of relegation is so real that no businessman would risk it, especially having been burned once already. Those who believe in this vision will point to the January window as evidence of an owner desperate to avoid relegation as justification of this attitude. But the accounts don’t reflect that. Also despite reoccurring rumours which appear to be based more on optimism than reality, there do not appear to be any buyers. Why do you think that is, Surely NUFC must be the best option for any billionaire to buy? No it’s not, it’s just about the worst.

Why is that? Well there is no room for growth and no room to play. Any billionaire will want his team to play in the Champions League. Now the league is already stuffed with six clubs chasing four places and the cost of breaking into that and regularly snaffling a place is horrendous. See above. They are more likely to move to a league where there is room for a big club to move to the top. We have seen this already across Europe.

Alternatively they may see the prospects of a Championship club winning promotion as several have already. Southampton for example. Ah, but there is big money in the Premier League you say, massive profits, great return on investment. That’s not really the case either. The average out of town supermarket turns over £150m (More than NUFC) and makes significantly more profit. So buying a football club is not for profitable investment reasons. No the idea that some multi billionaire is going to ride to our rescue is highly unlikely.

So what sort of vision do I have. Taking the positives I would hope that Ashley and Sports Direct sort out their compensation plan so that Mike knows where he stands. Also I would hope that they recognise the benefits to themselves of having a vibrant NUFC. To that end I would like to see our finances improved so that we can move clear of the pack and consolidate our position as the best of the rest. I would also like to explore an idea whereby instead of having players not playing we utilise them as a worldwide touring team raising the Newcastle profile. This to me would be the ideal scenario as a better owner is unlikely. A dispirited hated owner is not going to invest and the hate poured in his direction is likely to stem any support he is minded to give. However, the fans have spoken. They hate him, his regime and everything about him. Mediocrity beckons.

The world may have moved on since 1963 but NUFC appears to be no nearer a major trophy.

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567 thoughts on “Taking the Positives – I have a dream”

  1. …in fact, I’m gona organise an anti ‘anti-protest march’ to kick off at the same time, meet them in the middle. That should sort it. 😎 Contain the equilibrium.

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  4. Negative press ?

    Wow! 😯

    What slant can the press put on the fans protesting? 🙄

    The press will love bashing Ashley with this one.

    And let’s be honest, if there are any potential buyers out there, I hope it scares them off if they are like Ashley.

    Anyone with real ambition need apply and they won’t need to worry about protests. 😆

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  5. …just to reiterate my stance in a nutshell.

    Ashley: Go
    Pardew: Go
    Kinnear: Go
    Current PL status: Dicey (given the above)
    PL status with even more **** kicked up: Dicier (given the above)

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  6. Troy, you know what I’m talking about. You ever gone into work and had to spend the whole day with someone who’s thinking about leaving? How secure that makes you feel? It’s about stability within your surroundings. At this point in time we need to be attracting PLAYERS to our club. Not putting all our new recruits off.

    Dunno about you mate, but when my dinghy starts making hissing sounds I jump off the ******. 😉

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  11. Dave@458, yeah sort of. Cabaye would’ve been pissed off when we didn’t sign Debuchy last summer, and a year on the owner is still scrimping, saving and quibbling. He’s a devious, manipulative ****** Fatboy. He’s full of ****.
    Full of eastern promise would be better; promise to Mrs Cheng that her 8yr old son, Hwang, will be paid 300 yen per day for organising all logistics involved in underground replica shirt production. Not to mention his 3yr old sister, Doreen, who installs all the electrical communication modules at FATBOY’s house. The fat *******. 👿

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  12. Santii 😆 …so that’s the infamous Graeme Cansdale then! He’s the bloke behind the forthcoming ‘Time for Change’ march.
    Attention-seeking tool.
    😆

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  14. The answer to how to remove Mike Ashley is simple, hit Sports Directs income. This solution I am about to propose will take down the Sports Direct website for as long as you want (money permitting). For a few hundred pounds you can take down the website for a couple of days. Now imagine 50,000 fans paying £1 each, you can take the website down for 1 year easily. This is completely anonymous and is done by skilled people, such as those who took down the FBI website.
    So the steps are;

    (this guide assumes a group of people have opened a digital Bitcoin account and deposited funds)

    1) Access the ‘Dark Web’ (can only be done using the ‘TOR’ web browser. The websites below are only accessible via the TOR browser.
    2) Create an account (or login if you have one already) at ‘The Silk Road’ (http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion) or ‘Atlantis'(http://atlantisrky4es5q.onion) or any other site selling such services.
    3) Find the appropriate section to do with website services etc, pick the highest rated seller you can find (some will have 100% quality feedback).
    4) Discuss with the seller the website you wish to take down (Sports Direct) and the amount of time you want to take it down for, 1 day, 3 days, 1 week, 1 month etc. Mention any other requests like replacing the site with a holding message saying “Ashley out!” etc, agree a price with the seller and finalise the deal. The good thing is the funds are held by escrow and so the seller isn’t paid until the goods or service has been delivered.
    5) Sit back and watch Sports Direct shares plummet!

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  18. All aboard, the fizzy wizzy, huffy, puffy reality train…. 😆 😆
    Troy, I see you are ignoring me now… wow, the second major hissy fit in under 12 months 😛

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  19. They’re a weird mob those train dwellers, Oz. They pay out on you for not supporting them and they pay out on me for supporting them.

    But nothing they do or say surprises me.

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  20. 😆 Vegas, I saw that and had a little chuckle to myself… They focused on one line from your post and disregarded everything that had proceded it 😯 FTSOTB!!! 😛

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  21. That’s how they operate – selective reading. They only see things that confirm their own prejudices.

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  25. Mike open your chequebook and sign us Titus Bramble and Charlton Cole before somebody else snaps them up. The fan’s would be happy with two descent signings and it shows ambition

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  31. Mike is sensible and is trying to reduce the clubs out standing debt of 111 million pounds. In order to do that he has to make sacrifices and not always popular by the fan’s but the long term stability of the club.

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  32. Nice one Vegas, you have gone and upset everyone and now they are staying away from the blog…. 👿

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  33. Vegas I think nufc will finish in the bottom half for 3 years and by that time we our debt free and can afford to buy some quality players. We need loan signings and free agents in the mean time. Boycotting the match will only damage the players morale. Its utter madness

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  34. Bramble is better than Taylor and free
    Charlton Cole is better than Campbell and free
    The debt gets paid off. 3 years of mediocre football and kinnear can do his magic in the transfer window. everyone’s a winner

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  36. Vegas and Aussie you just got to understand football is a business and although it’s a sport the financial side comes first.

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  38. Vegas have faith in Pardew, he might win a trophy this year and make us all proud. We have a strong chance of winning the capital one cup.

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  39. Firstly you sit back while the Nazi’s storm across Europe and now you’re pointing out the flaws of logic in the gravy train, honestly Aussie you sicken me.

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  40. Wahey my little Aussie friends. 🙂

    I would never ignore you Aussie. I have too much fun ridiculing you. 😀

    Begas

    I have read every post you have written over the past few years and know exactly how your mind ticks. 😉

    Oh that reminds me, I must wind up my clock. It’s stopped. 😀

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  42. Troy, you can’t ignore me because i constantly challenge you and it infuriates you that you keep coming up second best.. you seem like a good kid though 😛

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  43. is it just me or does Roy sound like Geordie2. He also seem to post at the same frequency and he also spouts a load of ****.

    @Newkie I liked that we subtle jab 😛

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  44. What’s all this Oz bashing going on? Have you lads been misbehaving while I’ve been away? Can’t blame you mind there’s been nothing interesting posted for about 24 hrs. Does that mean the protest’s over now?

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  45. Santii you seem to know so much about football and how to run a club. Write a letter to Mike Ashley basically telling him how to improve the club. You never know, you could end up being Chairman, Director of football or our new manager.

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  46. This article says it all… Might be the most the most combustible charity match in football – especially now that Paolo Di Canio is involved.

    😆 😆

    Not forgetting Barton, Lee Bowyer and Kieron Dyer… 😳

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  49. Roy/G2 with his terrible fishing technique 😳

    Elliot in instead of Krul and your sorted. 😎

    Thanks for the lovely compliment @495 as well

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  52. “If I had a message to Mike Ashley it would be to engage with the fans, to repair that relationship. It’s not totally broken, but it doesn’t just need a plaster on it, it needs to be fixed.

    “I’ve seen players chewed up and spat out by it. It’s not just those who go to the game, it’s the whole city.

    “Everybody knows what is happening at the football club and when things go badly, they let you know about it. If things go well, it’s the one of most amazing experiences you can have as a footballer playing in England.

    “When there is a good feeling, when the momentum builds, you swim with the tide and you feel unstoppable. But when things turn sour, when the club is divided, you’re in a rip tide and it’s incredibly hard.”

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  53. Some Harper quotes.
    He urges Ashley to be more amibitious, and believes we might have missed a trick after finishing 5th.
    But he also notes how awful it can be for the players when the fans turn.
    Any thoughts, protesters?

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  54. Santii I’m definitely not Roy mate. I only post under my own user name. One batch of my comments is enough for everyone I’m sure! 😆 Roy sounds like a sensible lad though. I’ve just come on after doing some jobs so I’ve only read a few of the recent comments.

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  55. Is there any links to watch Harper’s testimonial because it’s not on sky, bt or itv but sounds like a really good game

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  56. I think most if not all of the players will understand that the protest is against the owner for doing little if anything in the summer and for hiring Kinnear as DoF. I would hope so anyway. Everyone can see now that Ashley has no real football ambition for the club. The young supporters have plenty of time to wait for some silverware but us older sorts are getting impatient. I love the club and want to see us win something. Ashley doesn’t.

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  57. Reading further back I’m not so sure about Bramble Roy. I would definitely not take him back. As for Cole, not likely going to be brought in either. We’re thin but I hope we’re not that desperate mate. I would rather see some of the young’uns develop and be given a chance here and there. Our next striker signing must be a very good one, not somebody’s castoff.

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  60. As annoyed as I am with the lack of ambition, I actually think this is the best state the club has been in years.
    We have players that are going to be playing in the world cup, that are worth £10s of millions, half of our team are only going to get better.
    There’s a reason why we weren’t seen as a “selling club” under most of Shepherd’s reign – the majority of our players weren’t worth looking at for the top clubs.
    We think about past in rose tinted specs, but firstly – we have been mediocre through the last 50 years (apart from the odd year),
    secondly – a handful of worldclass players and a couple of world class managers hid what were non-existent foundations.
    You can see that we are building towards the Spurs/Arsenal model – that a sale funds transfers.
    We’re in good nick at the minute, for the first time in years I can see potential. We just may have to wait a little while to see that potential realised.

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  61. Salano I know the supporters are unhappy with Ashley for a number of reasons. I can see it doing more harm than good, only because the last time the fan’s protested the club was relegated. Pardew finishing 5th that year was the best thing since SBR days. The lack of signing’s in the summer and the extra 14 games, really cost us. Pardew is inexperienced when it comes to europe and it so nearly got the club relegated. Wonga, Kinnear, renaming SJP, blaming legends, Sold our best players over bonus’s and lack of transfer activity and JFK is to much for some and I respect that. He should talk to the fan’s instead of hiding in his castle.

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  62. Spot on STEM @511. I also think it’s important that the owner come out of hiding and speak up about the club. What he did this summer is ridiculous. No set of supporters would have been happy with it. Kinnear is not what we need as DoF. You can’t spend less than 2M pounds in a summer in the Prem anymore. It’s utter nonsense. Every other club knows that. We are doing well financially but the supporters are not going to be patient with this type of bollocks happening. Step up and speak for yourself Ashley. Thanks for the support about Bramble Kimtoon mate. 😀

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  63. I think Pardew will do better this season ( hopefully ).
    No europe and less excuses ( apart for Jonas being injured).
    Pardew, ” We struggled at times without Jonas in the side.”

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  64. He will have to do better or he’ll be out STEM mate. The owner can’t afford another bottom 5 finish. Things are bad enough for Ashley with us already (and it’s all his own fault).

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  65. G2 He owes the fan’s an explanation at least. He can’t be that shy getting his pictures taken at games and showing off about how fast he can drink a pint of larger on sky. He brings it on himself by letting. If he isn’t proud to own the club and has no passion in his heart for Newcastle then he should leave. It really bugs me when people defend him and say it’s not his fault. He hires them because there cheap and he cares about one thing profit. He will sale the club for more than he paid and get his loan back. Ranger fan’s you can have him with my blessings.

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  66. G2 Pardew can’t be that bad again surely. He might get better in time but I doubt it. I would like him to do well.

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  68. STEM I want the team to do well, so if Pardew is the manager when it happens so be it. I completely agree with you about Ashley. He has no passion for the club, no love of football and he should leave. He can make plenty of money selling sports tat etc. Leave us to enjoy our club with an owner who understands and shares our passion Ashley. Do the one decent thing you can for us. Leave.

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  70. I think owner’s will be put off after the 4 year Wonga deal. If he pockets every penny of that money and two years of t.v revenue then it will put potential buyers off. If somebody else owned 50 per cent of the club at least he would have to answer some questions ?

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  71. I’m sure Ranger’s supporters will enjoy Ashley’s insipid unambitious brand of profit making football STEM. They can find out the hard way as we did.

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  72. “Newcastle are bleeding. If that isn’t addressed, if the wound is not allowed to heal, whatever is special about the club is in danger of dying.
    “The fans make the club tick, but they feel detached from it. Whenever the club has done well over, the fans have been on board. They have been fully behind their team, their club.
    “I think their loyalty has been tested far too often in recent years. It’s one of the great clubs, but it should be competing amongst the very best in Europe.
    Steve Harper says it pretty well doesn’t he? Pay attention Mike and you might learn something. Then do something about it.

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  74. “Newcastle are bleeding. If that isn’t addressed, if the wound is not allowed to heal, whatever is special about the club is in danger of dying” 😯 😆

    Look, I like Steve Harper, and I know he has had some nice things to say about the supporters, the city, etc ahead of his testimonial, but enough with the melodrama already 🙄

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