As the new season draws ever closer, there has been a lot of pre-season predictions and comment on what Newcastle can or will achieve next year. As always, the media enjoy commenting on NUFC and we of course still need more new signings through the door. A large fan base and having a manager of Rafa’s stature naturally leads to higher expectations than a ‘typical’ newly promoted side. So where can we finish next year?
What does Rafa expect?
Rafa wants quality signings, like we all do. Merino arriving seems to have appeased things slightly but he knows we need further enforcements, particularly in attacking areas, to not be in a dog fight come spring. Rafa himself said recently of aims for the new season:
“If we are trying to avoid relegation we have to make sure we are stronger, then maybe we can go higher and higher.”
Rafa likes to keep expectations grounded and his view that avoiding relegation this year, with a view to then making further strides up in the table in coming season, would be echoed by most.
What do the bookmakers make of Newcastle?
Many bookies have released their title odds, which effectively is them predicting how the final table will finish. Newcastle are amazingly 10th favourite to win the title in May; suggesting bookmakers think we will sneak in the top half. This seems a little ambitious but with some quality signings and some good luck it could happen. After all, there is not a wealth of quality sides in the bottom half of the table.
Interestingly though, Bentiez is also the favourite manager to leave his post first from the twenty current top flight managers. A lot of that will be due to press speculation over transfers, the past actions of Mike Ashley and the fact of how much of a coup it was to get Rafa on board in the first place.
Pundits views on NUFC
Harry Redknapp has again surfaced after taking the full time managers role at Birmingham City and made the news last week by tipping Newcastle as one of seven sides to struggle. He claims we have not singed enough quality players to move away from the relegation bracket and he arguably has a point. We need a lot of investment still but even as it stands, you hope we have more quality than the likes of Brighton and Huddersfield.
Paul Merson has also waded in on Newcastle too this summer, claiming we are a big club but that he doesn’t think Bentiez would stay for the long term. Pundits who aren’t linked with the club feeling the need to comment on NUFC just confirms that we will always be a good story; let’s hope we can enjoy a solid season and avoid the usual press soap operas like we have in the past.
Where do Newcastle fans expect to finish?
This is an interesting one. The Chronicle punished a survey over the weekend and the average position Newcastle fans (in the survey) expect us to finish was actually 14th. This reflects the fact we are newly promoted, have not invested as hoped yet but do have a quality manager to see us through. 50,000 plus at home games will also hopefully earn us a few crucial home wins.
What are you expecting next season; where will we finish?
Old news. I saw a valuation of 400 mil after we were promoted. Could be complete **** but some Yanks paid 130 million for 36% of Crystal Palace a year ago so I think 400 mil in the PL might be right for NUFC in the PL.
I have a degree in economics, maths, physics and bionics. I’m my family’s pride and joy my Mammy’s little golden boy. even at the age of ten, smart boy Kevin was a smart boy then….
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I am going to try this again. If a farmer has a goat to sell in Greece and wants 100 Euros, you pay the 100 euros or 90 or whatever you decide. The fact he owes 50 euros to Stavros at the kebab shop makes no difference to the price apart from the fact he might be desperate to sell and you will get it at 90 rather than 100.
Supply and demand.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric, I think we understand exactly what you’re saying . From my point of view I just think that knowing 129m of the asking price is debt against club and not actual club value is off putting.
kimtoon(Quote)
Perez should of had a pen apparently
1.2 now
kimtoon(Quote)
You have to love The Undertones.
“My perfect cousin, what I like to do he doesn’t.
He’s got a fur lined sheep skin jacket, me Ma says it costs a packet.”
Best lyrics ever.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Got it back but now it’s 2-1… missed all goals, but saw ours on chronicle live
Dubai Toon(Quote)
Agree with Eric. The selling value of a business depends on its profit making ability. It is the present value of its future cash flows. It does not have much to do with the debt. Too much debt may be seen as a credit risk but it won’t have a huge impact on the valuation of a business.
funrafa(Quote)
Atsu scores. 3-1. Great pass from Shelvey
Dubai Toon(Quote)
Mitro is good but have him waiting on bench is too luxury for us. We should sell him and buy a cheaper one as a sub. After all, we need money desperately.
funrafa(Quote)
Atsu 1.3 up now
kimtoon(Quote)
If you sell a stock (share) for $100 you still get the $100 regardless of what the buyer knows about your debt on the stock (share).
Eric Sykes(Quote)
If you are desperate to sell, then people know that and will propose a discounted price. It really is simple. A business is worth x dollars, deduct the debt of y, and you arrive at a price of z.
With NUFC, if you start at a valuation of 400, then deduct the 130 that Mikey has in debt and he gets 270 net. Simple.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
a good win
kimtoon(Quote)
I do find it helps having the same figures in mind when debating things though. I’m looking at actual figures posted by Forbes albeit for April 16. But yeah, if I knew you were using the £400m figure (that I have genuinely not seen, and can’t find) then it wouldn’t have been much of a debate anyway.
Sharpy17(Quote)
I don’t know what team Wolfsburg put out today, but that’s a good win over there.
Another goal for Mitrovic ?? (Still makes me wonder whether we are right selling him). Cracking goal from Ritchie, and good confidence booster for Atsu getting a goal.
Not sure if Perez has scored yet, but that’s Gayle, Mitrovic, Ritchie, Murphy and Atsu all getting goals so far. I know they are friendlies but forwards gain confidence scoring goals regardless.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Rafa – thing is though, if we sell him, that money only goes to buying Lucas Perez & whilst he’s a good player, it could take him time to settle.
Mitrovic I think is desperate to be here and to prove he’s good enough. Is he though?, does he deserve a little longer to prove himself?.
Would we be selling a top 22 yr old about to start hitting his peak, for a top 28yr old in Perez who may only have 3-4yrs at the top left?.
Sharpy17(Quote)
We got relegated Sharpy. You get promoted, you make more money.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Mitro is a good player but he is not Rafa’s type. Rafa likes forwards who is good at running to tear down the opposite’s defence. The typical target forward has never been Rafa’s #1 choice. If our #1 forward is 30M something I won’t mind to have Mitro on bench. But the fact is our #1 forward is only 10M or so. Mitro can find a place where his type is favored and we can find a replacement which is cheaper. It will be more efficient for both.
funrafa(Quote)
•”Rafa Benitez remains ‘hopeful’ that a deal can be done to sign Arsenal striker Lucas Perez, however the player must reduce his wage demands and Arsenal must sell ‘at the right price’ if a deal is going to be done (Shields Gazette).”
It screams I have no money. Forget it.
funrafa(Quote)
This team has already build for 80%. We just need the cherry to be put on top. It is a pity we just stop here.
funrafa(Quote)
Lots of positive chat about Merino & Manquillo after today’s game too.
We might not know a great deal about these boys, and they might not carry a fee worth of City or Chelsea, but they certainly seem to be improving our squad.
I agree with Rafa. Maybe only 2 players away now. But we seem to have hit a brick wall.
Sharpy17(Quote)
A decent front man is always the holy grail but we really do need to speculate to accumulate here.
kimtoon(Quote)
i would take this lad 😯
http://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2017/08/02/newcastle-united-target-angel-correa-once-lined-up-as-lionel-mes/
icedog(Quote)
KIM hate to be a bearer of bad news but Virgin are putting their TV and broadband prices up 🙁 🙁
icedog(Quote)
yeah looks good Ice
kimtoon(Quote)
Ice – I’ve not seen him play to be honest but he has decent stats & Athletico may be looking to raise funds to buy Costa back (once they’re allowed).
Craic is we can buy that Merino for only £6.5m if we choose to make the move permanent. Loan deal is about £2.5m so a £9m outlay for him could be another good deal by the club.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Yeah I know ice, thinking of ringing and asking for a better deal or I leave them.
kimtoon(Quote)
i would mate,good idea
icedog(Quote)
Ice , it’ll have to wait as lads poorly at mo, another cold so he’s drowning in snot on and off and puking up mucus and his epilepsy drugs poor thing. 🙁
kimtoon(Quote)
Poor Branson must be on his **** is he?! ??
Sharpy17(Quote)
Aye more important things to do mate hope Lewis picks up very quick for you
Icedog(Quote)
https://youtu.be/I0niGC4hve0
Highlights of today incase nobody has seen them.
I am honestly loving our wing play!!. Wide men getting balls into the box is great football to watch IMO.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of Shelveys passing abilities too and the balls he plays through the middle. But it’s really good to see this new threat from the wings.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Sorry too kimtoon. There are much more things than football finances to think about. Epilepsy is a ******. I had a girlfriend a long time ago who had it. Grand mal seizures. If I wasn’t there people would want to put spoons between her teeth.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Yes Sharpy I have always loved teams that use the full width of the pitch. Far more pleasing on the eye and more captivating for the neutral fans.
shamrock(Quote)
Cheers for the link. Couple of questions and observations;
1) Who conceded the penalty? Poor defending in the left back area and then poor challenge.
2) Ritchie scored a cracker.
3) Maybe Mitro just needs good wingers and traditional wing play in order to thrive.
4) I liked how selfless Shelvey was setting Atsu up.
5) Did Atsu actually score from a bad touch when set up by Shelvey? It did not look like a deliberate placement of the ball. Seriously I think he intended to get into position to score, but had a bad touch and scored by fluke in the end!
shamrock(Quote)
Seriously, there seems to be a myth that if someone is having a seizure that spoons have to be used to make sure they do not swallow their tongue. I am sure you know about this. You cradle their head so they don’t hurt themselves. There is nothing else you can do until it is over.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Hit the Nelson. If anybody doesn’t know it is 111. One eye, one leg, one arm.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And then… I got divorced on the number of the beast. 6-6-06. It is not really bad because I didn’t have a bad marriage, but it is still funny that it is the number of the beast.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I got married on D-Day 🙂
Easy stuff to remember.
Thankfully, I wasn’t born on Christmas Day because that would be just too weird.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric, it may not be as simple as you seem to think – re the debt.
Let’s say Ashley owns 100% of the shares. He sells 100% to you. You are now the proud owner of NUFC and inherit all the assets and encumbrances of NUFC … including a debt to Ashley.
Ashley and NUFC are separate entities.
It isn’t the same as buying a house, or even buying livestock from a Greek farmer.
Brisvegas(Quote)
Sham
1. It was Dummett mate, and I’m still a little concerned for LB.
2. Agree.
3. Totally agree.
4. Me too. I’m hoping Shelvey has turned a bit of a corner. He’s mentioned England in pre-season and I think he’s got a target to work towards. I think Rafa has been in his lug coz Shelvey looks fitter & really focused.
5. That was definitely the case mate. He should have just hit it first time anyway, but he defo tried to control it & ****** up. I think he was worried about the defender blocking it but it came off for him. I had a little chuckle at his reaction too though mate.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Hope Dummett doesn’t become this seasons scape goat. I sometimes think the local lads get more stick than their foreign counter parts. He’ll do a good enough job for us, he’s solid enough just not the fastest. If we upgrade then fine but I’m not too concerned if we go with him, he played well last season albeit a lower league and he can cover CB too.
kimtoon(Quote)
Yes he did well last season Kim..Yesterday was awful defending though. I could.not tell who it was, so its interesting that he caught my eye for being rubbish out of everybody else, even though I did not k ow it was him. It was only a highlight reel reel and he may have otherwise done well, but he still cost us a goal pretty needlessly.
Fingers crossed he has a good season. The PL is a step up though and he struggled last time we were there. Bit older and wiser now of course. He will be judged by me on performances and nothing else..
shamrock(Quote)
Let’s hope Manquillo copes against spurs at RB, it’s apparently his specialist position, Yedlin expected to miss first month of the season with a hamstring injury. Rafa could slot Mbemba in at RB, but more likely manquillo. See I liked Anita at RB, clever player , should of kept him, telling that he got snapped up so quickly .
kimtoon(Quote)
Sham, I hope Dummy does well too, not too worried about yesterday, it’s only a friendly and lots of changes to team and all that . More worried about no new Striker and creative MF player arrival tbh.
Too few goals = relegation, ask Boro
kimtoon(Quote)
Dummett is my little cult hero at the moment. I love to see a local lad in the team, so I’m probably more forgiving of his mistakes. He reminds me of my style of defending – not outstanding at any aspect but a decent all rounder (at a much higher standard of course).
I loved it when he was seen in the crowd with the away fans when he was out injured. Can’t remember who it was against now – but you usually see these players in the exec boxes on their phones – there but not really there. Young Dummett was stood singing the Blaydon Races – respect bonnylad ???
Sharpy17(Quote)
Kim I am hoping for a free transfer as good as Demba Ba to turn up 😀
Stem(Quote)
Also getting a replacement for Icedog’s golden nugget shouldn’t be to expensive
Stem(Quote)
Perez in Turkey talking over a move,another one missed then ffs
icedog(Quote)
Nowt like hope Stem.
These talks on Correa persist but seem very unlikely to me. I wrote on here about 3 years ago that he was the next big thing coming out of Argentina and we should get him. The Argies are always looking for the next Maradona or Messi and that was him 3 years ago. Would he swap CL finalists for a newly promoted team in England? Money talks but it seems we don’t have much of that either.
georgio(Quote)
not overly gutted by not getting Perez, wasn’t expecting us to given how skint we are. We need to try and loan a good forward if we can’t buy.
kimtoon(Quote)
Problems seem to be we cannot shift players out,three deals have broken down because clubs cannot match the wages they get at the toon,Hanley is latest deal to break down with Brum and Derby
Icedog(Quote)
I see no one has tried to sign wearside jack,don’t want to be stuck with the ginger nugget,please please someone come for him
Icedog(Quote)
Ice, it’s a worry that the wages and long contracts are now coming back to haunt us.
kimtoon(Quote)
How much does a kebab cost now? Not your dog meat donner, a lamb or shish? A tenner?
So, for the cost of Neymar I could have a kebab every day for 54,784 years. Yes, years.
The Guardian are saying his Dad and Agents will be paid 39 million Euros for “facilitating” the deal.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
players not wanted but happy to sit back and collect their wage, I suppose that’s their right but personally I would want to play.
kimtoon(Quote)
I despair of football, it’s ability to consume itself looms large .
kimtoon(Quote)
And Neymar is only the 3rd best player on that team, although Messi and Suarez are older. Maybe 4th, Iniesta is getting on a bit now but in his prime he was probably as good as Neymar.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
What would a round the world ticket and some reasonable hotels to stay in cost? 50k? So, me and 4,000 of my closest friends could take that trip for the price of one Neymar.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
It is 40,000 Rolexes. or 3 ex-council flats in Islington ( I know I have used that joke before).
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Sorry if I am boring anyone but I bet you could buy the whole of the Scottish Premier League, including Celtic for less than Neymar. I am trying to put it into context for me, what this fee really means. It is fcking insane.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Icedog(Quote)
Eric, Roy of the Rovers it ain’t mate.
kimtoon(Quote)
It’s just making a joke out of footy,how do some of these clubs get round the fair play rules,a few little clubs have been hit with it how come some clubs get away with it,M/city have spent to date more than 200 mil this window,I just cannot understand how it works for some and not others
Icedog(Quote)
Ice, that’s what we had to do to entice a lot of players here, loads of money for a long time. Jabba thought he was so clever. Get them young with sell on value, with an offer that can’t be refused and plenty of time left on contract so we call the shots when clubs come asking. It’s worked with a few like Sissy, Gini , Cabaye and of course home grown Carroll but you won’t strike gold all the time and more often than not you won’t. On that basis it’s a very risky strategy and one that an astute business man like him should of foreseen really. It’s been a cocky attitude to take and if it wasn’t us fans suffering I would be laughing at his ineptitude . Chickens home to roost now.
kimtoon(Quote)
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11820/10972051/la-liga-refuse-to-accept-psg-payment-for-neymar
Strange going on’s
Icedog(Quote)
Aye Ice, mentions FFP rules
kimtoon(Quote)
PSG funded by Qatari money, you know the worthy 2022 World Cup destination. Might just give that one a miss. Money just makes a big mess of everything.
georgio(Quote)
me too, don’t think I can stomach watching a tournament in a place where the stadia were built on the backs of slave labour conditions where an estimated 1400 workers have died and rapidly rising. How Qatar have not been stripped of the right to host and been made accountable for the conditions and deaths is beyond me.
kimtoon(Quote)
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/tragedy-qatar-world-cup-2022-9657054
this is one world cup I hope we don’t win, in truth I wish we would boycott the thing
kimtoon(Quote)
In fact I would go as far as to say that all countries who participate in the **** thing are complicit in what’s happening there.
Time to put human lives before a chance of glory , monetary reward and a world ranking position.
kimtoon(Quote)
Well said Kim! What are the Qataris going to do with those stadiums after the WC. They don’t even play football there FFS! It’s just sand and gas. Whole thing stinks! Another Blatter masterstroke.
georgio(Quote)
Maybe they can bury the dead in them. 👿 🙁
kimtoon(Quote)
No new development in tsf mkt? oh mannnnnnnnnnnnn!
funrafa(Quote)
Ice: the financial fair play rules are just smoke and mirrors. A club is in violation if they make a loss of a certain amount over a 3 year period, I think it is 30 million. This means that they can make a loss of a very large amount in any one year and hopefully make it up in subsequent years with transfers out/increased revenue etc. The problem is that they also game the system by having state run airlines etc pay stupid amounts of money for sponsorship deals.
Look at Man City. Their revenue is almost as much as Man U’s now. Of course revenue will increase when you have great players and win things but you can’t tell me that City became United in a short few years when Man U had won everything in sight for 20 odd years and you see their shirts everywhere. And that was before Pep and the latest splurge. It’s fixed.
Eric Sykes(Quote)