A fan written piece by one of our very own, Roy Frankland (Dubai Toon). This one seems particularly relevant after today’s claims from the Chronicle that we are now in talks with a striker who could smash our club record fee. We’ll believe that when we see it, mind..
I’m old enough to remember the very first £1 million transfer in what was then the old first division. Trevor Francis transferred to Nottingham Forest in 1979 for £1.15 Million (including some fees and taxes!) and suddenly the world took notice. It was big news! That season, Trevor Francis scored 14 goals for Forest and helped them to win the European cup. The following season he only scored 6 goals and then he moved on, but the era of the £1 million player was here to stay. The barrier was breached and the flood gates opened.
Almost 40 years on from that first £1 million deal, fast forward to where we are today, with the huge revenues from TV around the world and the unbelievable barrier of the £100 million player now breached, and not just once!
What should teams expect to pay for a qualified, proven goal scorer and in effect, what is the cost of a goal in the premiership today?
Listening to Rafa speak about striker a short while ago, it occurred to me that in effect what you need to spend today, as a minimum, is around £1 million per goal. This is a very simplistic viewpoint, I know, but I think to get a good 20 goal a season player, you must be looking at a transfer price of around £20 million, without even considering the astronomical wages this level of player would demand. If you can only pay £5 million, you can expect a return of roughly 4 – 7 goals a season at best from that player. There is another dimension to this too, I feel, and that is consistency. If you want a player that can consistently score 20 or more goals in a season, then this will multiply the number. There are very few players that will score 20+ goals in a season, but if that player has some consistency over say, 2 seasons or 3 seasons then we are into the realms of the £40 million or 60 million or more as we see today. I guess there is also an age factor as well, younger means more potential to be consistent over several seasons, and then of course, they need to stay injury free.
Of course, there are always exceptions to every rule. Neymar is not going to score 20 goals plus for another 10 years! Neither is Messi, or Coutinho, but for sure they will command silly money as we have seen, so there is a bracket of player with the X factor that will cost ridiculous amounts, however, on average in today’s market, I think we could safely say, the cost per goal is around £1 million and for consistency it is 2-3 times that figure.
So, how about NUFC and our strikers? What can we expect realistically?
We paid around £5 million for Joselu and I think the best we can expect from him is going to be 5-7 goals this season. Any more is a plus and any less is underperformance.
Gayle we paid I think around £12 million but that was in the Championship, and he will most likely fall short of providing 12 goals this season. He proved himself very well in the Championship, and I think he is at that level.
Mitrovic was, I think, around £13-14 million or so, and following the argument, he should be able to provide a good 13-15 goals in a season, (assuming he plays!), but he is not getting the game time to do that for whatever reason.
Perez around £1 million, so whilst we criticise him sometimes, he is consistently giving us more than his worth back in goals, albeit only 5 this season so far. This could be why Rafa keeps him in the team.
As we look to find a new striker, (I hope!), capable of keeping us in the premiership this season we must have realistic expectations and pay the going rate to get a consistent, 15-20 goal a season striker and I do not see this happening in this window. Every team with expectations of being in the top half should have at least 1 striker capable of 15-20 goals regularly season after season. We don’t have that right now, and under Ashley, sadly, I just don’t see us getting it unless, by accident, we discover a gem like Mahrez or Vardy for little money and big reward. This is also very unlikely.
Where does this leave us? Struggling in the bottom half and super reliant on a manager that must try to get all our strikers to over achieve. The message should be clear to our owner, whoever that ends up being. Pay what it takes!
Pay at least £15-20 million and get us that rarity – a striker that will return 15-20 goals in a season and keep us up where we belong, in the premiership.
Thanks Olly!
Dubai Toon(Quote)
Dubai – nice one mate ?.
I guess when you highlight the fact our entire strikeforce combined costs little over £30m. 4 players for what 1 decent forward would cost.
If we had a £30m forward this season I’m sure we would be up in the top 10 and not a thought of relegation.
Here’s the thing though. Of the 4, I’m probably only keep Perez (the cheapest of the 4). The rest can be sold for better for me like.
Sharpy17(Quote)
There seems to be an accepted wisdom that our squad is full of Championship level players. Is this true though? I think it was when we played Swansea much was made of the fact that our starting 11 played in The Championship, but they were all not bought in the Championship and many have PL experience or were bought when we were in the PL.
Darlow, Yedlin, Lascelles, Dummett, Shelvey, Diame, Ritchie and Perez all were bought in the PL or had PL experience. On the bench were Elliot, Haidara and Hayden. In the stands were Mitro and MBemba both bought for good money when we were in the PL. You could argue the only reason Atsu only had a few starts in the PL was that he was at Chelsea. Look who else couldn’t get in their team – De Bruyne and Lukaku as well as Schurrle.
I still think Rafa is doing a good job but as Dubai Toon says we sorely lack a double digit a year striker or Rafa at least has to **** or get off the pot with Mitro.
So is this a Championship level squad? Maybe, but most were bought for the PL.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
well done mate good right up lot of fans along with Rafa that strike force is not a PL standard and a long way from it,Gayle couldnt get in a poor Palace strike force
icedog(Quote)
And what of Rafa’s buys when we are in the PL? I know he was pissed about but it is still worth looking at what we got. They were perhaps his 2nd or 3rd choices but the bottom line is that he bought them and they are on our books. So what grades would they get?
Manquillo – C
Mereno – C+ as he has gone off the boil/is injured or is not played recently
Atsu – B minus
Joselu – C minus
Murphy – C still adjusting but looks more promising
I know there was a lot of pissing about and bickering but we got what we paid for – average players, none of whom would get in a top 6 team. Is it any wonder that we are in the bottom half and maybe I am stating the obvious.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
DT: I think you might be a bit under on your million pound per goal estimate mate. You say so yourself, it is a million a goal, unless it is not 🙂 You also bring up wages and that has gone mental. Even with TV riches could you ever see us paying Sanchez or Rooney money? The estimate for Kane as well is that he could triple his money if he went to Madrid or Man U. FFS, even City blinked and then baulked at Sanchez’s demands.
Another thing I would like to know is who you think are realistic targets within our price range? I have thought about it and it comes back to a few usual suspects in the PL such as loans for Ings or Carroll. Any known quantity in the PL costs a fortune and is out of our price range. The other options are from other leagues. Brighton just broke their transfer record on a Dutchman but will he get any goals? For every Argen Robben or Ruud van Nistlerooy there seems to be a Ricky van Wolfswinkel or Luuk de Jong.
DT, I don’t know what the answer is either and am not criticizing you it is just really difficult to see any value in this market where known quantities cost a fortune and all of the others are a crapshoot depending on luck as much as judgement it seems.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Swans parking the bus at home to Liverpool. Do you think we will hear a dickybird from Carra or GNev? Surely they should be accused of a lack of ambition as well?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – I think we have some Championship players, but I disagree with those who say we have a Championship squad.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Swans one up
Icedog(Quote)
Ice – I think pool will come back though mate.
I like that Ayew for Swansea though, he’s a decent player isn’t he.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Sharpy: about the supposed Championship quality of our squad I think it is one of those times when if something is said often enough it becomes a FACT. As I said, a lot of our squad have PL experience or were bought when we were/are in the PL.
What we lack is a cutting edge. We play the odd **** game but so do most teams. And we are hardly the only team failing to compete against the top 6.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
If Swansea hold on it is going to be a masterstroke according to the usual suspects. When we used exactly the same tactics we lacked ambition and it was an insult to the Premier League.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
He’s canny but not a 15goal striker,would change for Perez
Icedog(Quote)
Eric – Leicester has a load of ragtags & rejects before they went on to win the league. I believe they have still only got rid of 2 of that team and the rest are still managing to hold their own. That’s the extreme example of how much a squad of players can change.
I think a large portion of our first team are more than capable of holding there own in the PL. We just need to add that quality edge to them to raise us from a relegation battling squad to a mid table plus squad .. but that costs money.
Sharpy17(Quote)
No mate he’s not that productive as a forward, more of a creative forward. Yeah I think he’s more effective than Perez & more robust – Perez spends more time on his **** complaining he’s not getting a freekick. I think he’s better than that like, but he’s not producing it this season imo.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Eric – this is the worst I’ve seen Lpool play all season. So sloppy in the final third. Swansea aren’t even having to try and keep them out – they are doing that themselves ?
Sharpy17(Quote)
Ings on and Carroll out for 3 months. That’s 2 to strike off the possible loan list.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
See Olly is breaking in his other article that Kenedy is on his way up for a medical.
I’d be happy with that like. I’ve liked our 3 at the back set up coz it allows Yedlin to get forward – which he’s better at. I haven’t been blown away by Manquillo on the left though and think Kenedy would be a much better LWB.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Commentators over here saying Swans have given a “magnificent performance”. I would agree which is why I get so mad when the **** pundits are so biased when we try the same thing. Liverpool have been lumping in high balls which is not what they have done all season.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Whey give owa man!! ??♂️
Liverpool were horse ***** tonight. Fair play to Swansea, they did what they had to, but that wasn’t the same Lpool that beat Man City like.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Alfie Mawson will be worth £60m now I suppose
Sharpy17(Quote)
Of course it is different. Not like MC, Swansea does not leave Liverpool much space to run. Liverpool always struggle when they don’t have space, especially now they lost coutinho.
funrafa(Quote)
Dubai, nice article mate. We always seemed to be a club known for our number 9’s and even under Jabba we’ve had a couple , Carroll, Ba and Cisse all good forwards but slowly but surely our potency up front has been eroded under this owner, I hardly recognise the club anymore, we have lost our identity.
Are we a yo yo club now, a mid table safety club, a bottom feeder ? What happened to ambition and pride ?
Shearer is spot on, there is no value for money for us long suffering fans and if all there is to look forward to is a seasonal relegation scrap, well not sure I’ve the stomach for it in truth.
Will we see a record breaking bid for a forward like they are suggesting ? Who knows but I very much doubt it , that would go totally against Jabbas remit.
I do think our lads are working their socks off and we are creating chances, we just need a bit of quality up front .
And what the hell , Swansea beat Liverpool !, that’s not in the script is it. 🙄
kimtoon(Quote)
Rafa they created 21 chances mate, but only 4 on target. Wasn’t that they could break them down, they just couldn’t hit a barn door
Sharpy17(Quote)
that’s 2 wins and a draw for Swans now since changing manager .
kimtoon(Quote)
It is easy for them to shoot because Swansea sit so deep, but really they didn’t have a good way to break them down.
funrafa(Quote)
I am still not getting this Kenedy transfer. Maybe if we play with 3 centre backs, but I think Dummett has done well on his return and we have cover there. We also have Atsu and Aarons as traditional left wingers and Ritchie and Murphy can also play there. We should also convert Yedlin to a right winger as that seems to be where he is most comfortable anyway.
6 points separate Watford in 10th from Swansea bottom. 4 points between Watford and Southampton in 17th. None of the teams in the bottom half can feel comfortable and that includes West Ham, Stoke and Palace who probably have the best squads.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – aye it’s gonna be an interesting run in like. Maybe it will need more than 40pts this season?!.
I think Kenedy means 3 at the back mate. Him and Yedlin as wing backs.
Sharpy17(Quote)
If Kenedy comes in I’d line up like this –
—————— Darlow ———————-
—- Lascelles – Clark – Dummett —-
—————— Hayden ———————
Yedlin —————————— Kenedy
——— Shelvey —— Merino ————
—— Perez——————— Murphy —-
————— New Forward —————-
With everyone fit and ready to go. With the 3 centre halves and Hayden sitting, I’d expect the wing backs and 2 central midfielders to switch between attack & defence. That at times could mean as many as 8 defending so the 3 up front can concentrate on attack and support each other on counter attacks – with the pace of Yedlin & Kenedy quickly making that 5 hopefully.
Sharpy17(Quote)
But that’s 12 players ?. I left Merino in ??♂️. It was either the 3 midfielders or 3 forwards and he can switch between the 2 systems with subs or depending on who his playing.
Sharpy17(Quote)
I’d quite like to see us playing a 5-5-3 for the next game. More potential to create chances and get numbers back when under attack. 2 goalkeepers as well, or maybe for home games just make the Toon goal a bit smaller and the oppo’s a bit bigger.
shamrock(Quote)
Cheers Dubai. Hopefully Benitez has been educating Ashley around these facts!
We know Rafa likes a fact.
shamrock(Quote)
Sham – the wife distracted me as I was writing, I didn’t check what I put as I went back to it ??♂️.
I’d love to say it was worth it, but she totally discarded my advice and done it her way anyway ??
Sharpy17(Quote)
😆 😆
It’s rare to see a Sharpy slip up mate, so had to get in on it 😀
shamrock(Quote)
Sure I was reading somewhere that back in Brazil Kenedy played up front in a number 10 role and that that is his best position. Anyone know, I don’t know an awful lot about him before Chelsea and had assumed he’d be given the Atsu slot.
kimtoon(Quote)
I feel like a kid on a long road trip – “are we there yet, are we there yet”. If we just get that top class striker I think we will survive. We need a player who raises everybody else’s game, someone who creates space for others. You watch City and they have at least 3 of them – Aguero, Silva and De Bruyne.
Gayle is a decent finisher and I think he will thrive with more space. He’ll probably be sold though to fund the new buy. But Perez would be better if half his job was not to constantly track the other teams’ midfielders.
This is a minimum along with Kenedy (although as I said I don’t really know why Dummett would be sacrificed).
As a final wish how about a midfielder? We have Shelvey who blows hot and cold and has a suspect temperament. Mereno has looked good but he is young and I think he still has a bad back. Can we really go into the final 14 games with just Hatden and Diame?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I knew it !!! Just read the interview with Mereno in the Chronic and he said he is still recovering from his bad back. Anybody that has thrown their back out knows it takes more than a couple of weeks to heal, especially if you have to do some running around and tackling.
I had a herniated disc a few years ago and after an MRI asked the Specialist Dr, if there was anything I could do. Yoga, stretching, pilates etc. He said no, no exercise no strenuous activity for at least a couple of months.
Hopefully Mereno will be available because we need him even though Diame has improved a bit.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Second that mate
kimtoon(Quote)
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/business/business-news/newcastle-united-count-cost-relegation-14189269
So, he HAS to invest really, if he doesn’t and we go down then snubbing Mandy’s £250m with no strings will looked very foolish.
kimtoon(Quote)
Eric – you were right about Merino mate. He actually has a hairline fracture that’s slow healing.
Kim – Kenedy does have a reputation as an No 10. We’ll see. Certainly skilful enough for it.
£20m striker from La liga but apparently not Gameiro? Any ideas?
georgio(Quote)
Probably not Gemiero because of age, not skill. I think he turns 31 soon and I am still sure that Ashley would not spend 20 million with no sell on value. It is short-termism because he would certainly save more by avoiding relegation and thereby keep PCP interested. They may not have a written rule that they will not buy a player over 26 but Fatman will still be looking for value as we contemplate players in their late 20s. A leopard not changing its spots and all that!
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I bet they had Mereno on the weight machines or those long heavy ropes that they swing up and down because judging by his pictures he does not have much upper body strength. On the plus side he is still young and should heal much quicker than an old fart like me.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Steve Wallwork @stevewallwork · 32m
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Replying to @lee_ryder
Any idea how close the deal is to being done for the striker Lee?
“Bid” is said to be 20 million, but it’ll be interesting to see what the valuation is on said player. We have history in bidding below market value.
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Lee RyderVerified account @lee_ryder · 30m
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The player is valued at £20m but they haven’t bid that high – yet.
😆 of course they haven’t it’s newcastle
kimtoon(Quote)
not a Scooby mate, as you say Gammy is a bit too old and not what Jabba would sanction going off past windows and structures .
kimtoon(Quote)
I think it could well be Willian Jose of Real Sociadad
http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/willian-jose/profil/spieler/122155
I’m sure the lad was with the Madrid B team when Rafa was at Real.
Sharpy17(Quote)
He’s a lot cheaper than the supposed £20M though mate ?
kimtoon(Quote)
On there he is Kim, but this is the Jan window, I’m not sure there valuations count for anything these days either though.
I could be completely wrong of course, it could be someone different altogether
Sharpy17(Quote)
Thought it was strange WH not selling Ayew or Sakho after decent bids this week.
SSN saying Carroll, Lanzini and Arnautovic are missing for at least a month – that’s good news.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Sharpy, I’m pretty certain we won’t be breaking our transfer record no matter what Bishop tries leaking to the press. Sick of all the lies coming out the club, it will be a couple of loans and a cheap value for money forward if we are lucky.
I predict
Loan Kenedy, in place
loan goal keeper
cheap forward with supposed potential
And
Shelvey- west ham too late to replace
Mitro- West Brom and he’ll bag a few goals for them .
Can’t help feel the fatman will try to get in as much as possible to offset spending and be able to accept less for club should he sell in summer.
kimtoon(Quote)
Them three are a huge loss mate, most of all their goals and good play comes through them 3 like. Wonder if they will try to get Mitro or Gayle off us ?
kimtoon(Quote)
Kim – personally I don’t give a ***** whether we break transfer records or not – as long as we get the players in we need.
The addition of Kenedy will be a good one, and clearly a player Rafa wants. But it’s goals we need. Whether that’s £20m or a loan move, I’m not bothered as long as we get quality in.
Sharpy17(Quote)
No way I’d let Mitro go to WBA, unless Rondon comes the other way.
We would be mad to strengthen a rival with a player we refused the chance with us.
Sharpy17(Quote)
I read a bit on WH mainly because I dislike them so much. I keep forgetting there is a third stooge Karen Brady, who is a total manipulating cow.
Anyway, Carroll is out for 3 months after ankle surgery so that is pretty much the rest of the season.
They seemed to have successfully converted Arnautivic into more of a striker and he was enjoying himself. Always had talent but was a bit of a sulk and likely to leave his foot in. Glad he is out though. Cost them 25 mil.
Lanzini: the commentators always refer to him over here as their most creative player and the one that makes them tick. Is a bit of a sicknote though and he was just fully recovering so glad he is out as well.
A slump in form for West Ham would be very much appreciated 🙂 Of course the London press were acting like there was a full on redemption of Moyes even after Sociedad and the Mackems. You know why. Half are closet WH supporters and they won England the World Cup 50 years ago. Well, not really but that’s the way the Southern Press act.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Would it really be so bad to let Shelvey go to a relegation rival? Would he help or sabotage them?
Pros: he can really ping a pass and is useful to have if you have quick forward on the shoulder of the last defender.
I don’t mean to slight the guy too much but there are also quite a few Cons:
1. He is slow and the other teams attackers sometimes leave him in the dust.
2. Disciplinary problems. If you go down to 10 men you are almost guaranteed a loss.
3. Plays well about 1 in 3 games.
4. His accuracy. His Hollywood passes rarely come off.
5. His set pieces. When was the last time he scored from a free kick? He wasn’t even taking the corners, Ritchie was.
6. Lack of goals. We can’t really have Hayden and him in the same midfield we would probably get about 4 a season combined.
I might just have talked myself into getting rid of Shelvey in order to sabotage West Ham 🙂
Eric Sykes(Quote)
The Swansea fans weren’t sad to see him go either when we bought him.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I remember reading comments on Eds I think. The Swans fans saying you can have Shelvey, no big loss, he has issues, he is a showboater, a defensive liability, is slow.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – if he’s replaced then I don’t mind selling Shelvey mate. I was a big fan when he came in and defended a lot of his stupidity – but this season I’ve become tired of it.
Yes the lad has talent but it’s not used often enough for me. We end up talking more about stupid tackles or petulant lashings out then the unreal pass or man of the match performances.
If you compare him with Cabaye for example – which would you take (not now, I mean their Newcastle spells).
Sharpy17(Quote)
Sharpy: I know I am being a bit harsh on Shelvey but those things were said by the Swans fans. He definitely has talent if he can channel it.
And, we have gone 116 games without an opposition player being sent off. Only Burnley have longer with 126 I think. Add that to the lack of penalties and I still think there is a conspiracy against us. Would we have been awarded that penalty that City got? No way.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And the Manure game has also gotten a lot tougher now they have Sanchez on board, our luck is endless.
kimtoon(Quote)
Storey Kane has asked to leave Spurs cannot see that like
Icedog(Quote)
Kenedy signed. Finally have a signing.
shamrock(Quote)
Eric if we could get a replacement then I would have no qualms getting rid of Shelvey. He thinks he is better than he is and as a result does not put the effort in on anywhere near a conistent basis.
shamrock(Quote)
Thanks all for the comments on the article. Just got in from work and catching up on comments. Happy to see we ha e finally got a signing over the line. I think Kenedy will be a useful addition.
Dubai Toon(Quote)
Prediction. Kenedy and a keeper (if we’re lucky) will be our transfer work.
Stuart79(Quote)
Sky reporting striker deal is getting hard to get done,now why is that a surprise
Icedog(Quote)
The sticker deal is fake imo
Icedog(Quote)
Striker
Icedog(Quote)
I wondered with the splurge of publicity in MASh apologist rags and media about a high profile signing if there would be any scepticism about the (fake?) news.
Wasn’t it highlighted last week that the season ticket deal is up soon ?
Is this the latest attempt to generate ticket sales or genuinely a change in approach from the summer. History suggests the former?
I guess the intriguing aspect is that NUFC sympathetic media seem to think the news is credible
We haven’t got long to wait .. which is good
GlosMag(Quote)
So Brighton have bid for Mitro and we are after Slimani. Mmmmm…I certainly wouldn’t be selling anyone to Brighton.
Stuart79(Quote)
Defo a sale for me. Sell him for 15M. Adding 5M we get Slimani, assuming Ashley allow Rafa to spend the income from sales.
funrafa(Quote)
Stu – you sell him or play him mate. If Rafa doesn’t want to play him he must cash in on a £15m forward who’s getting 60k pw.
If the worry is that if he goes to Brighton he could keep them up – then play him & he can keep us up.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Too big a risk. It’s just bizarre the thought that anybody would be happy to sell a player to our main rivals. He might have a complete mare at Brighton but score the winning goal in one match that kept them up and sent us down. Why risk that when he could be sold at the end of he season or abroad in Jan…
Stuart79(Quote)
Ime with STU sell abroad or keep till season end
Icedog(Quote)
We’re in for Nicolai Jorgensen whoever he is. Dutch striker apparently.
Stuart79(Quote)
* Danish
Stuart79(Quote)