The FOUR scenarios facing NUFC – & one of them is imminent..

We’re now over a month on from that brilliant final day win at Fulham, yet uncertainty has taken over on Tyneside once again.

In the Mike Ashley era, and especially over the past few seasons, we have an uncanny knack of ending the season on a high, but being quickly brought back down to earth as poor communication and painfully slow decision making sees our summer start into limbo.

We’re now in mid-June, Rafa’s current contract expires in two weeks time, the BZG ‘takeover’ remains somewhat of a mystery and the club are staying silent, but there’s one of FOUR possible outcomes set to take place one way or another this summer.

One of the following four is going to happen:

  1. New owners arrive & Rafa stays
  2. New owners arrive & Rafa leaves
  3. Mike Ashley stays & Rafa stays
  4. Mike Ashley stays & Rafa leaves

1. New owners arrive & Rafa stays

This is the scenario we’re all dreaming of.

Seeing the Bin Zayed Group buy the club would not only mean the end of Mike Ashley, but their arrival would also give Rafa Benitez every chance of actually fulfilling the club’s potential for the first time since he arrived three years ago.

We still don’t know a great deal about Sheikh Khaled and the BZG, however their ethos sounds like a perfect fit to both Newcastle United and Rafa Benitez: “We believe nothing should be left to chance when it comes to our pursuit of excellence. Our interests are best served – when we serve the interest of the public. Continuous Improvement is essential to our success.”

The combination of ambitious owners, a world class manager, a playing squad with potential and a bouncing 52,000 crowd is a tantalising prospect and real remedy for success.

2. New owners arrive & Rafa leaves

This would be one of the most bittersweet moments in the club’s history should this happen.

In one sense we’d be absolutely delighted and relieved to see the back of Ashley, but should they arrive AFTER Rafa’s contract expires (June 30th) and then choose to pursue a different manager, it would be a tough one to take.

There’s been talk that they’d want either Mourinho or Wenger should they complete a takeover, however it’s hard to know if that’s genuine or just the national press seeing two high-profile managers out of work, knowing some new owners like their own man in charge and deciding to write a flimsy story on it to get inevitable views from Newcastle fans desperate for ‘news’.

It’s sad to say, but if someone offered me ‘option 3’ (Mike Ashley staying and Rafa staying) or ‘option 2’ (BZG arrive and a new manager replaces Rafa), I feel I’d have to take the latter. The dream scenario is option 1, however you can’t help but feel things are always destined to end in tears if Benitez is left working under Mike Ashley. After all, he’s been putting up an admirable fight, but it’s a losing battle when he’s trying to get a club tied to chains back competing with big spending contenders (Wolves, Everton, West Ham) and back into Europe.

Mike Ashley clearly isn’t going to change, so bright and ambitious new owners along with a new manager of their choice (who is likely to be more than capable should it come to that) would be the second best scenario for me – even if I’d be devastated to see Rafa Benitez leave just as the one thing he’s been waiting for arrives.

3. Mike Ashley stays & Rafa stays

I’m sure some fans would take this given so many refuse to believe a takeover is happening – and I don’t blame them based on recent failed ‘attempts’ to buy the club from Staveley and Kenyon.

It’s a far from the ideal scenario, meaning Ashley would be still at the helm following a THIRD successive failed takeover approach, but while Benitez is hear we at least have hope – and a world class who’s proved over the last three seasons that he can still manage to make the best out of a very bad situation.

That said, you have to question whether Rafa will actually commit to a new deal under Ashley given he seems unwilling to compromise. If a takeover fell through, Rafa would be faced with another rushed summer and uphill battle ahead of the new season. This is EXACTLY what he didn’t want, so he’d have every right to walk away.

Who knows though. He’s never given up on this club over the past few years and is gradually building a decent side – albeit on limited resources – so maybe he’d like to continue working with the likes of Longstaff, Schar, Dubravka, Lascelles and Lejeune. Then again, he may feel like it’s a case of one step forward and two steps back if we go into the new season without Perez and Rondon and a lack of quality replacements (see Ki in for Merino last summer!).

I don’t see us competing properly for 7th and knocking on the door of Europe if Rafa was forced to work under Mike Ashley’s constraints, however there is at least a feeling that we could push towards the top 10 and would NOT go down. Small dreams I know, but it seems OK when compared to the fourth and final scenario – an option which would have us all fearing relegation immediately.

4. Mike Ashley stays & Rafa leaves

It goes without saying that this is the nightmare scenario.

Seeing a takeover ‘fall through’ would be frustrating enough as it is, but then losing Rafa Benitez as a result would be devastating.

It’s not even worth thinking about who would replace the Spaniard this summer if it came to that, with any top manager likely to be reluctant to work under Mike Ashley.

Not only that, you’d have to question just how many of our start players would push for moves if Rafa left. After all, Benitez is the one man who’s given us hope over the past few years, and without him it would feel like we’re only going to go one way.

We all know Mike Ashley is happy to spend the bare minimum if he believes we’ll do just about enough to stay up, but relegation fears would go through the roof if Rafa left – especially when some of our top players and several fans would follow him out the exit door at St James’ Park.

The club is reaching a huge crossroads, with the next few weeks having the potential to be some of the biggest in the club’s recent history.

After a painful and uncertain start to the summer, let’s hope we’re left with a positive conclusion.

(Fancy writing for us? Send any articles/ideas over to us at [email protected] & we’ll get back to you!)

About Olly Hawkins

As a Junior Magpie since birth and season ticket holder, I eat, sleep and breathe all things NUFC! Here at the blog, I aim to bring you news, views, match reports and transfer exclusives as and when I get them.

201 thoughts on “The FOUR scenarios facing NUFC – & one of them is imminent..

  1. Ice , i don’t that often either but was bored. It was a post from one of their regulars about something Andrew Musgrove wrote about more than one bidder .

    Still don’t think a takeover will happen unless Stavely or Kenyon have found some investors, just don’t think this Sheikhover is real deal somehow.
    Have the sinking feeling that we will go into august with Jabba, no Rafa and having lost some of our better talent and a no mark manager.
    Really hope i’m wrong obviously.

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  2. Kimtoon: I didn’t understand that Andrew Musgrove article. He said other groups had made INDIRECT CONTACT. What does that mean? Are they waiting in the wings to see if the BZG bid falls through or if it is as far along as people have said? Supposedly, papers were submitted to the league a while ago.

    Does Ashley want a bidding war? In the past he has said he does not but it would not surprise me if he moved the goalposts again.

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  3. The one thing that is keeping me hoping that there is something to this proposed take-over is the silence.

    I suspect much of the initial media statements was because this was the way the BZG have done business in the past, with open info and showing their hand. I think they have quickly realised (or been told directly) that Ashley does not work this way and have backed off with the media “up-frontness” to keep Ashley on side.

    The other thing is Rafa’s silence. We know he has no qualms about using the media to push his agendas when he feels things are not going his way, he uses that has his little leverage arm on the owner to get what he wants…or at least a slight change in where the compromise middle ground is located. The fact Rafa is keeping quiet tells me that there is more to this than just him seeing out his contract or he would have been off looking for new positions by now or at least seen his name linked with far more than he currently has been. If the deal is going on in the background and he’s had reassurances then it explains why he is just biding his time.

    While Ashley is in charge of negotiations there is still always the potential for a monumental foot-in-mouth outbreak to scupper the whole deal, but the longer this goes without Ashley, Rafa or the BZG making a negative statement the more it feels like we may finally be getting the news we long to hear. My only worry is the length of time taken may seriously effect out pre-season preparations and therefore give us yet another slow start to the new campaign.

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  4. You can scroll as many websites as you like – there is no news at all anywhere regarding NUFC. There’s a few made up pieces from the usual suspects. But nothing really. At a time when usually there’s rumours flying about everything there’s nothing. Sick of the lot of them!

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  5. If Rafa goes I have no idea who would be the next Manager. I don’t think Ashley or BZG have many football contacts.

    Ashley would probably call up Graham Carr, but that is how we ended up with Schteve and Ugly John.

    BZG without Rafa might be equally a disaster.

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  6. The Sun gave 5 possibilities. 4 were total nonsense but they mentioned Arteta which might be a good call.

    If Ashley stays I could see John Terry. More likely to be Moyes.

    John Terry would be the ultimate 2 fingers to NUFC fans.

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  7. If Rafa leaves i’ll be sad to see him go but understand that there’s always a fake over or sell before you buy reason. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pardew’s or Pulis or even Mark Hughes will be candidates for the job.

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  8. The Sky story of Rafa to China is most likely a negotiating ploy. Rafa wouldn’t need to make that decision immediately. He can sit at home and wait for someone to get sacked. There is always a big European club opening as there are always underachievers. Most likely in Italy.

    Even in the PL if West Ham, Leicester or even Everton get off to a bad start? Wolves? There will be an opening sooner rather than later.

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  9. You’re probably right Eric. There will be vacancies sooner or later.
    The wall of silence continues. Club, MA, Rafa, BZG all silent. Eerie.
    Who’ll be at the club when the players return?

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  10. Well I’m officially worried now. 10 days of Rafas current contract to run and it doesn’t look promising.
    Equally, the takeover was hoped to be concluded by the end of June and there’s not much noise on that front either.

    Disaster looms I fear.

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  11. Nothing going on. Nothing of note in the papers. Joke player links. And regurgitated stories in The Chronic.

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  12. So few peeps saying that Rafas name has been taken off door of his office !
    lets hope it’s just for redecorating reasons.

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  13. Also if he was staying you would expect him to be active in the transfer market or saying stuff by now surely .
    The wall of silence from everywhere is astonishing .

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  14. I have been saying for a while I just didn’t think it was possible for Rafa to sign a new contract while Ashley is here.

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  15. kimtoon:
    Ice, what’s your gut feeling on Rafa AND takeover ?

    i will never trust jabba ime 50-50 on takeover, i think ime sorry to sat i think Rafa will walk,jabba wont give in to Rafa over over age players which i think is the problem it stinks

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  16. Why would a former cricket player have been given direct access to takeover documents? Sounds like bull to me. Still condident its happening.

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  17. Shamrock:
    Why would a former cricket player have been given direct access to takeover documents? Sounds like bull to me. Still condident its happening.

    We don’t know who he knows Sham,I have my doubts we know he’s a right greedy git

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  18. I think Rafa runs down his contract but his other options are very limited if Lampard gets the Chelsea job. He may as well just sit on his hand a see what happens with the takeover.

    With all the p!ssing around I doubt he would return if Fatty is owner.

    So that leaves us in limbo when training starts and Rafa has taken all of the coaches with him.

    Redfearn will take training probably and lead the trip to China. He has at least been a Manager. Failed? Rotherham and Leeds?

    Anyway, transfers will be on hold so there will be a lot of stamping of feet and gnashing of teeth come a week on Monday. And I will be joining in because this is a farce as it currently sits.

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  19. Ice, that’s quite something for Darren to come out and state like. It would not surprise me at all that he keeps bumping up the price, he is incredibly greedy. They will likely walk, i know i would. Had the same thing happen to me on those two bungalows i was wanting, price agreed and both buyers upped the price by £10,000 after weeks of work and lots of cash laid out by me. I said no and backed out, i was gutted and angry at their opportunism ( they knew i was desperate for bungalow ) but i don’t regret walking away . It’s a matter of principle and morality, they suggested i ask my buyer for the extra but we had an agreement and i wouldn’t go back on it . I suspect the Sheikh will take a very dim view of his business practice.

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  20. Mohamed Moallim

    @iammoallim
    24h24 hours ago
    More
    Fernando Torres: “I remember that I was playing phenomenally, I’d just scored a hat-trick and everyone signed the ball. They put ‘you’re the best’ or ‘congratulations’. Rafael Benítez put ‘today you lost the ball eight times’, it was his way of motivating you to improve.”
    😆
    How to pop someones balloon .

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  21. Rafa’s just about to pop 100,000 balloons! The situation is now beyond ridiculous. What do they think they’re doing to our club. Idiots the lot of them!

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  22. Is it going too far to suggest that next week is possibly the biggest week in the clubs history – off field at least.

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  23. Papers now on the Rafa story. Still surprised some are shocked he will be leaving. Luke Edwards even saying Rafa must take responsibility for not seeing what he has and carrying on and shouldn’t go to China. Jesus Christ! Why should anybody do a job which makes them miserable?

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  24. Stu, I agree, it’s the impossible job really under Ashleys constraints , Rafa can walk with his head held high imo, i don’t blame him one bit. Ashley is the biggest loser here not Rafa, we will surely lose our best talent now or next window and we will drop and he’ll have a pretty worthless club to flog .

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  25. kimtoon: Fernando Torres: “I remember that I was playing phenomenally, I’d just scored a hat-trick and everyone signed the ball. They put ‘you’re the best’ or ‘congratulations’. Rafael Benítez put ‘today you lost the ball eight times’, it was his way of motivating you to improve.”

    And only at that time he is willing to sell. Greedy makes a person looks real stupid.

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  26. Kim – the fans are the biggest losers, not Ashley – he’ll still get his millions.

    Caulkin is also wrong. It’s not the ‘club’ that’s allergic to it’s potential … the owner does not personify the club.

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  27. Sharpy, while he owns the club whether we like it or not he will be the most important part of it because nothing changes until he goes. While he’s here we are a club without any ambitions whatsoever. Anybody who continues to go, pay their money are complicit.

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  28. kimtoon:
    Ice, that’s quite something for Darren to come out and state like. It would not surprise me at all that he keeps bumping up the price, he is incredibly greedy.They will likely walk, i know i would. Had the same thing happen to me on those two bungalows i was wanting, price agreed and both buyers upped the price by £10,000 after weeks of work and lots of cash laid out by me. I said no and backed out, i was gutted and angry at their opportunism( they knew i was desperate for bungalow ) but i don’t regret walking away . It’s a matter of principle and morality, they suggested i ask my buyer for the extra but we had an agreement and i wouldn’t go back on it . I suspect the Sheikh will take a very dim view of his business practice.

    i remember that well you went through hell but pleased you stood your ground,the club is a nightmare i wont blame Rafa one bit if he goes,shocked hes stuck it this long but jabba is a master at lying

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  29. It still could be that the all round silence is because a takeover really is happening and Ashley has warned all parties keep quiet or it’s off.
    Optimistic I know, but everything else borders on madness and we mustn’t forget Ashley’s only interest is, and always has been, getting his SD signs on millions of screens every week.

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  30. Stuart79:
    Sharpy, while he owns the club whether we like it or not he will be the most important part of it because nothing changes until he goes. While he’s here we are a club without any ambitions whatsoever. Anybody who continues to go, pay their money are complicit.

    Stu – he’s the most influential part – certainly not the most important. But sadly you are absolutely right about the rest.

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  31. georgio:
    It still could be that the all round silence is because a takeover really is happening and Ashley has warned all parties keep quiet or it’s off.
    Optimistic I know, but everything else borders on madness and we mustn’t forget Ashley’s only interest is, and always has been, getting his SD signs on millions of screens every week.

    Georgio – there is a tiny thread of me that still has hope too mate. I don’t forget that Ashley done what was needed to keep Rafa when we were relegated – so I hope that same sense prevails. However, there is only a week to go, and I can well imagine that Ashley is stubborn enough to not back down on some of his transfer policies.

    My other fear is he’s stupid enough to look at the fact Shef Utd and Norwich have come up and him think – well they’ll go straight back down, do we really need Rafa next season to stay up?!.
    The owner doesn’t have the ambition of the current manager – he’d happily settle for a manager that can just keep us in the league – and be paid half what Rafa is now ??‍♂️

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  32. There is also a real possibility that a Championship club will spend more on one of our forwards (Gayle £20m) than we a premier League club will spend on a player this summer

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  33. (Quote)

    Sharpy17
    June 22, 2019 at 15:42
    There is also a real possibility that a Championship club will spend more on one of our forwards (Gayle £20m) than we a premier League club will spend on a player this summer

    I would say that’s a cert Sharpy.

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  34. Ice, I’m still looking for a bungalow, 9 years of looking, almost as long as fat Ash has so say been trying to sell the club 🙄
    They are rarer than hens teeth in my area, hence the greedy sellers.
    Supply and demand as they say.

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  35. Any manager coming in after Rafa has an uphill task. Has to hit the ground running to have ANY chance of getting the fans onside. He’ll need one hell of an ego to think he can better Rafa.

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  36. All managers think they’re the best particularly if they’re desperate for a job. £2m a year? I’ll bite your hand off! Still praying a takeover is happening and we rid ourselves of this parasite.

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  37. Without doubt this is the biggest week in the clubs recent history. The decisions fat Mike makes this week will have long term effects. No Rafa = chaos going into the new season, there is NO manager that we can attract that will measure up tactically to Rafa. Pep, Klopp, Wenger, Poch, Sari ,none could of done what Rafa did with that squad imo, they are money managers.

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  38. georgio
    June 23, 2019 at 09:55
    All managers think they’re the best particularly if they’re desperate for a job. £2m a year? I’ll bite your hand off! Still praying a takeover is happening and we rid ourselves of this parasite.

    Save yourself the stress mate, it isn’t happening, i don’t doubt an offer has gone in and some considerable work and expense to the would be buyers, note i said buyers there. The thing is though you need a willing seller and and an honest negotiator. He will be dicking off the buyers and moving the price and in the end they will all walk away which i believe is what he wants as it’s the perfect foil each window to do **** all .
    It’s impossible to not of sold the amount of times he is supposed to of been in talks. I have a feeling that there is a bidder who he prefers because they are willing to accept his signs and letting him keep hold of merchandising but they are struggling to raise funds. Kenyon perhaps ?
    Also i still don’t think Stavely is out the picture somehow.

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  39. In the end we are stuck with the leech and Rafa is all but gone if we are honest with ourselves. If that’s the situation at seasons start i’m seriously thinking i’m done until he’s gone.
    Got more than enough stress in my life than going through another season of angst with him owning us.
    In all sports, what ever it be, you start each campaign with the aim of achieving something, a cup, title , medal , top 6, top 10 . In our case it’s survival every season, that’s pretty pointless really.

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  40. Pete Graves
    @PeteGravesSky
    Can only go on what I’ve been TOLD, which is – #nufc IS defo for sale, at least 2 interested parties in talks, BZG claim they’re “close”. But so many mixed messages both here and abroad. Tough for Journalists trying to pick between the facts. When I find out more, I’ll tell you.

    Jesus wept

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  41. kimtoon:
    Pete Graves
    @PeteGravesSky
    Can only go on what I’ve been TOLD, which is – #nufc IS defo for sale, at least 2 interested parties in talks, BZG claim they’re “close”. But so many mixed messages both here and abroad. Tough for Journalists trying to pick between the facts. When I find out more, I’ll tell you.

    Jesus wept

    Pick between the facts?!?!?!! Pick between the rumours more like!!
    But at least he’s honest, and essentially saying he knows nowt for certain – that’s a big step up from so many others who write as if they are in the know.

    Oh and as for cricketers on talksport ? whey give owa man ???

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  42. kimtoon:
    Without doubt this is the biggest week in the clubs recent history. The decisions fat Mike makes this week will have long term effects. No Rafa = chaos going into the new season, there is NO manager that we can attract that will measure up tactically to Rafa. Pep, Klopp, Wenger, Poch, Sari ,none could of done what Rafa did with that squad imo, they are money managers.

    I dont know about that Kim. Poch and Pep I think could hold their own anywhere. Same for Klopp

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  43. Last contract Rafa signed he was dealing with Charnley and the Fat Man signed off. Remember Ashley had let Charnley and Carr run things for a while. Now Rafa has had 3 years of Ashley’s lies so he is gone. He might be back if there is a takeover though.

    We are screwed though as Rafa takes his coaches and the whole recruitment machinery with him. We are left with a head scout of one year standing and that’s about it. And Neil Redfearn to take training.

    We’re setting up for a bit of a shambles. At least temporarily.

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  44. I just can’t see the cause of Rafa not signing already being resolved in the final week of his contract.

    If he hasn’t signed because of the takeover – what are the realistic chances of that being completed by the end of this week?!.

    If it is the terms of his contract offer, what are the chances of either party backing down now?!.

    If Rafa finds himself out of work, I have a feeling he’ll have a little nest egg tucked away somewhere to keep him going til one of the other PL managers get the bullet.

    Equally I see Ashley thinking someone like Moyes would jump at the chance of managing NUFC – would accept the restrictions and would be half the wages of Rafa.

    Let’s face it, when has Ashley prioritised quality over a bargain.

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  45. Never Sharpy . . . Monk’s now the bookies favourite to replace Rafa. How is that even mentioned as being possible. Ludicrous but so Ashley.

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  46. georgio:
    Never Sharpy . . . Monk’s now the bookies favourite to replace Rafa. How is that even mentioned as being possible. Ludicrous but so Ashley.

    Sounds about right mate. A failed championship manager sacked by Birmingham. He’d defo be a fraction of Rafas wages and could quickly learn the dance routine to Ashley’s tune – got a bit of a Pardew look to him too.

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  47. Sorry I thought it was obvious. Rafa leaves when his contract runs out. Neil Redfern is named caretaker manger. This gives til the end of July to sort out the takeover. If it goes through Then Rafa returns with 10 days to sort things out, if not then Neil continues .

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  48. Eric Sykes:
    Last contract Rafa signed he was dealing with Charnley and the Fat Man signed off. Remember Ashley had let Charnley and Carr run things for a while. Now Rafa has had 3 years of Ashley’s lies so he is gone. He might be back if there is a takeover though.

    We are screwed though as Rafa takes his coaches and the whole recruitment machinery with him. We are left with a head scout of one year standing and that’s about it. And Neil Redfearn to take training.

    We’re setting up for a bit of a shambles. At least temporarily.

    Par for the course isn’t it?

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  49. Gary effin Monk
    ye gods 😆
    Yep, I can see that, that’s straight up Jabba, that like. 👿

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  50. If the outcome of this summer is Ashley still the owner and Monk in the dug out – and people still renew their season tickets (paying more than last season as well!!), they need their bloody heads testing!!.

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  51. Sharpy, very true and don’t forget they ‘ll still buy the most expensive shirt in the league too, and fat Mike knows it.

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