Opta stats simulate NUFC’s final position, points total, 3 relegated sides & top 10 for 2019/20

It may seem trivial given the current crisis we find ourselves in, but Opta Stats have predicted how the final 2019/20 Premier League table would’ve panned out – whether the season is finished or not.

They have us down to finish 13th on 46 points, meaning they are backing us to pick up a total of 11 points in our final 9 games.

At the bottom they back Bournemouth (18th), Aston Villa (19th) and Norwich (20th) to go down, Liverpool to break the 100-point mark and win the title, with Man City (2nd) , Leicester (3rd) and Chelsea (4th) to be in the top 4.

Here’s their predicted table:

  1. Liverpool (101 points)
  2. Man City (80 points)
  3. Leicester City (67 points)
  4. Chelsea (63 points)
  5. Man Utd (61 points)
  6. Tottenham (58 points)
  7. Wolves (56 points)
  8. Arsenal (56 points)
  9. Sheffield Utd (55 points)
  10. Everton (50 points)
  11. Burnley (49 points)
  12. Crystal Palace (49 points)
  13. Newcastle Utd (46 points)
  14. Southampton (44 points)
  15. West Ham (39 points)
  16. Brighton (37 points)
  17. Watford (36 points)
  18. Bournemouth (36 points)
  19. Aston Villa (32 points)
  20. Norwich (29 points)

Here’s how Opta Stats claim to have crunched the numbers:

  • An estimation of each match outcome based off each team’s attacking and defensive quality
  • Those qualities are based on four years of historic restyle but more weighting is given to more recent games
  • It also takes into account the quality of opposition that a team scores or concedes against and rewards them accordingly
  • They used goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs
  • The simulation was run 10,000 times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.

Let’s hope football can return once it’s safe and appropriate to do so for all involved – even if attending games looks likely to be out of the question!

(Fancy writing for us? Get in touch at NUFCblogsubmissions@gmail.com & we’ll get back to you!)

About Olly Hawkins

Olly has been a Junior Magpie from birth. As a season ticket holder and avid Newcastle United fan - he eats, sleeps and breathes all things NUFC.

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