Some fascinating work by Chris Holt recently brought up one of the most terrifying and saddening pieces of evidence that Newcastle are in an awful state currently.
Up until recently, a majority of pundits have been shrugging at the plight of Newcastle fans and have claimed that Steve Bruce is doing a good job.
The fact of the matter is, even if we somehow survive relegation this season, Steve Bruce has to be considered one of the worst, if not the worst, Premier League manager Newcastle have had the displeasure of employing.
Some previous managers may have been saved from this damning statistic by losing their jobs early, and there has been a humongous loss record during Ashley’s reign, but Chris’s statistical analysis for Steve Bruce is damning.
Our loss rate for this season is currently 56%.
43 years have gone by since our loss rate has been this bad.
Back in 1977/78 our loss percentage was 61.9% as we lost 26 games of a 42 games season.
Now I’ve looked back at all seasons and unless I’m missing something, which I don’t think I am, that is the very worst Newcastle has performed in a season in all of our history.
Currently, we have lost 14 of 25 games and we have 13 games remaining. Even the most optimistic of Newcastle fans would admit that we’re not going to go on an undefeated streak for those next 13 games so it remains to be seen whether Bruce will actually top the worst Newcastle record of all time…
Of the remaining 13 games, our current form could easily lead to at least 7 more losses from here until the end of the season. I’ve predicted that we will lose to: Aston Villa, Tottenham, West Ham, Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester City and Manchester City.
If we were to lose just those games and none else then we would have a total loss percentage of 55.26%, just one percent under our current loss rate.
The scary thing to consider, however, is that this current team is not a team that tends to draw matches. We have drawn 4 matches out of 25 this season which is 16%.
Also, what needs to be considered is that Callum Wilson has scored in 7 of our 11 games in which we have not lost. That means that we have relied on Wilson to contribute to a non-loss for 66.63% of our matches. Flip that around and it means that we have managed to gain a result without Wilson being directly involved 33.37% of the times.
What this boils down to is that we can expect, without Wilson’s efforts, to get a result from roughly 4 of our 13 matches…
If the rest of the season works out like this then we could be losing 9 of our 13 matches if Wilson isn’t playing or firing right. If we go on to lose 9 matches then our loss percentage would be 60.52% for a season.
60.52% isn’t as bad as 61.9% but sure isn’t something to be proud of!
So, if Steve Bruce wants another lame excuse to lean upon, then he can start arguing that he’s unlikely to be the very worst manager of all time… just second worst.