According to the statisticians at FiveThirtyEight, Newcastle will stay up by TWO points this season – even with a defeat at Fulham on the final day.
Factoring in remaining fixtures and a complex series of odds, they have produced a final Premier League table – predicting points totals, league positions and the probability of relegation as things stand.
They expect us to finish in 17th on 38 points – meaning they back us to pick up another 12 points between now and May 23rd – and have Fulham going down in third bottom on 36 points.
Here’s their predicted table in full, which currently estimates that we have a 32% chance of relegation compared to Fulham at 45%:
The question is, are we capable of picking up the three points at West Brom this weekend on the back of a training ground bust-up and WITHOUT star attackers Wilson, ASM and Almiron?
If we want to survive, we’d better hope for a good result on Sunday and a favour from Spurs – who play Fulham tonight at Craven Cottage.
It’s interesting that they have Burnley and Brighton comfortably clear of the drop zone, believing the Clarets have a 13% chance of going down and the Seagulls a 7% chance. They may be in and around us at present, but in truth I think many believe they’ve got the fixtures and capabilities to win enough games over the comings months.
Here are our remaining fixtures compared to Fulham’s:
Newcastle – West Brom (A), Aston Villa (H), Brighton (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), West Ham (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Leicester (A), Man City (H), Sheffield United (H), Fulham (A).
Fulham – Tottenham (H), Liverpool (A), Man City (H), Leeds (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A), Burnley (H), Southampton (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H).