According to the statisticians at Opta, Newcastle will not only survive this season but end the campaign FIVE points clear of relegation rivals Fulham.
They believe we will pick up eight points in our final eight games to end 2021/22 on 37 points, and back Fulham to end the season on 32 – meaning they’d pick up just six from their final seven games.
Opta also rate our chances of finishing third bottom at 10.7% – believing we are 49.3% to stay where we are (17th) and at 23.8% to end in 16th – while Scott Parker’s side are currently deemed 75.4% likely to go down in 18th place and rated at 11.3% to survive in 17th.
Here’s their forecasted final standings in full, along with detailed statistics on their predicted points tallies and probabilities regarding ourselves and Fulham:
Opta’s predicted Premier League table
- Man City – TITLE
- Man Utd – UCL
- Leicester – UCL
- Liverpool – UCL
- Chelsea – EUROPA
- Tottenham – EUROPA
- West Ham
- Aston Villa
- Crystal Palace
- Newcastle United
- Fulham – RELEGATED
- West Brom – RELEGATED
- Sheffield United – RELEGATED
Newcastle United vs Fulham – detailed predictions:
Predicted points total – 37 | 32
Predicted finish in the table: 17th | 18th
Likelihood of 18th: 10.7% | 75.4%
Likelihood of 17th: 49.3% | 11.3%
Likelihood of 16th: 23.8% |
An ambitious set of results – I don’t think anyone expects us to finish FIVE clear of Fulham as things stand – however it seems a fair few have altered their stance on the relegation battle since we performed well in a 2-2 draw with Spurs and Fulham collapsed a few hours later in a 3-1 defeat at Aston Villa.
Here’s our remaining fixtures compared to Fulham’s:
Newcastle (8 games) – Burnley (A), West Ham (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Leicester (A), Man City (H), Sheffield United (H), Fulham (A).
Fulham (7 games) – Wolves (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A), Burnley (H), Southampton (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H).