According to the statisticians at FiveThirtyEight, Newcastle United will be a Premier League club next season – but only just!
They believe we will finish the 2021/22 campaign in 17th place on 35 points, backing us to end up two clear of Burnley (33 points in 18th), six ahead of Watford (29 points in 19th) and seven clear of Norwich (28 points in 20th).
Their end-of-season probabilities also have us down as a 38% chance of relegation as things stand, with Burnley at 50%, Watford 80% and Norwich 87% as things stand.
As for the other three sides currently in this seven-club battle to beat the drop, they back Brentford and Everton to reach 40 points, with Leeds projected to finish 16th on 39 points come May 22nd.
Here’s their predicted table in full:
Top half:
Bottom half:
There’s still a long, long way to go, with many twists and turns still possible, but their projections suggest our trip to Burnley on the final day of the season could be one hell of a nail-biter at the bottom!
Hopefully they are right and we avoid the drop – even if it’s by just two points – however it would be nice for our blood pressure if it didn’t come down to the last day.
How do you see things panning out between now and the close of play? Personally, I can see Brentford being dragged into it a little more than the statisticians currently expect…
The “super”computer doesnt take into account Jan signings or injuries. It is based on the form table and past stats. The fact it changes every 2 weeks should tell us it is meaningless and just some other stupid stat-based nonsense. It is sort of like Xg, which is also totally meaningless for individual players as they all go on streaks.
If it is so SUPER then why does it not stick with its predictions from the beginning of the season? The answer is that things change but all the “super”-computer’s algorithm takes into account is form and the past stats.
Eric+Sykes(Quote)
Paddy Power’s Super Computer says we’re 9 to 1 ON to stay up….
Headless(Quote)