The statisticians at FiveThirtyEight have produced their latest Premier League predictions, backing us to pick up two draws in our remaining games and finish the season in 14th on 45 points.
Their results also highlight what a turnaround we’ve seen over the past dew months. On December 9th, FiveThirtyEight estimated we still had a 68% chance of going down after recording our first victory of the season over Burnley, believing we’d end the season in 19th on 31 points at that point.
While we did improve massively in January, nobody could have predicted the run of form we would go on, with 10 wins since the turn of the year leaving us nine clear of danger and all but safe with a few weeks to spare.
Elsewhere, the prediction model thinks Man City will win the title by three points, backs Arsenal to pip Tottenham to fourth, Crystal Palace to sneak a top 10 finish and for Burnley to slip back into the bottom three – suggesting we will have a BIG part to play in the relegation battle on the final day!
Here’s how they see the final Premier League table panning out come 6pm on Sunday 22nd May:
In comparison, here’s how FiveThirtyEight saw it after our first win of the season back in December:
It is not really a very good “SUPER” computer. It had us finishing 19th at Xmas. Then the results change and it alters its predictions every 2 weeks.
I could have predicted us finishing 13th or 14th when we were 9th with Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal to play and I wouldnt have needed a fcn “SUPER” computer.
I predicted 12th at the start of the season based purely on alphabetical order of teams. I think I might end up right and didnt need a “SUPER” computer.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I also predicted 2 of the promoted teams to go down plus either Burnley or Leeds. I was leaning towards Burnley and didnt need a “SUPER” computer, just a bit of common sense.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Every season is decided on 38 games last season 45 points 12th
John Robert Carr(Quote)