With the dust now beginning to settle on the 2021/22 Premier League season, Newcastle fans can look back on a transformative campaign with great fondness – a sentence I certainly wouldn’t have expected to be writing back in September! Harking back to those dark days, our beloved Black & Whites seemed to be sinking inevitably towards the Championship, with the odds on relegation on the top new betting apps seemingly shortening by the day.
But no more! Gone – at long last – is the lack of progress which characterized the Mike Ashley era, and so disillusioned the most loyal of fanbases. Backed by riches only imaginable to the majority of football clubs and inspired by “the fella from Bournemouth” who “got a team relegated”, the crack of a bright new dawn is finally upon us. Magpies’ fans can dare to dream once more.
Title challenges and European campaigns are the ultimate goals now that ambition is the byword echoing around the corridors of St. James’ Park. And whilst both may hopefully come in time, here we attempt to predict how Eddie Howe’s, once again magnificent, Magpies may fare in 2022/23. What can toon fans reasonably expect the next step towards football’s top table to look like?
Europa League a Realistic Goal?
Remembering that this club had failed to win any of their first 14 Premier League fixtures – a position no side had ever recovered from – to finish the season in the
heady heights of eleventh position was a phenomenal achievement and an upturn in fortunes which fully vindicated the new hierarchy’s decision to assign the task of turning the club around to Eddie Howe.
First taking charge for the home game against Brentford – although not actually in attendance due to Covid – Howe inspired his troops to pick up a total of 44 points from 27 fixtures, for an average of 1.63 points per game. A solid return, and one which spread over a 38-game season equates to a tally of just a shade under 62 points (61.93 to be exact). To put this projected tally into context, we took a look back at the past five Premier League seasons to see where a side with a 62-point total would have finished in the standings:
- 2021/22 – 6th – Europa League Group Stage
- 2020/21 – 7th – Europa Conference League Play-Off Round
- 2019/20 – 5th – Europa League Group Stage
- 2018/19 – 7th – Europa League Qualifiers
- 2017/18 – 7th – Europa League Qualifiers
On that basis, qualification for European football of some description would certainly seem a realistic aim for the 2022/23 campaign. A target which, if met, would represent a huge step forward for the club.
Or Perhaps Even Better?
Encouraging as the above analysis is, there are grounds for believing that things may be even brighter than that. For whilst Howe took charge for the first time back in November, it was only from the 1st February 2022 that he was able to work with the current squad of players, following the arrivals of Kieran Trippier, Chris Wood, Dan Burn, Bruno Guimarães and Matt Targett on loan.
So how did Howe fare with this upgraded squad? Very well indeed is the answer, with a total of 17 fixtures from the beginning of February yielding 34 points, for an average of exactly two points per game. Again translating that total to a full 38-game season would have resulted in the following finishing positions over the past five seasons….deep breath Magpies fans….
- 2021/22 – 3rd – Champions’ League Group Stage
- 2020/21 – 2nd – Champions’ League Group Stage
- 2019/20 – 3rd – Champions’ League Group Stage
- 2018/19 – 3rd – Champions’ League Group Stage
- 2017/18 – 4th – Champions’ League Group Stage
And there you have it, if able to consistently match their form from the second half of last season, Newcastle will almost certainly be being playing Champion’s League football in 2024! That is of course said with tongue in cheek, but perhaps only a little given the remarkable resurgence so far, and the prospect of further additions to the squad over the summer. Whatever way you look at it, it all makes a welcome change from discussing what Newcastle need to do just to stay up!
