Let’s start with a fun fact. Set pieces (corners and free kicks) account for around 25-30% of goals scored in ‘elite football.’
It will come as no surprise that Manchester City (21) and Liverpool (19) topped the Premier League
table this season from set pieces.
Newcastle are by no means bereft in this department, finishing 7 th this season. With set piece goals
making up 32% of total goals scored for Newcastle this season.
James Ward-Prowse (JWP) widely impressed this season, with 4 goals direct from free kicks. Signing
JWP would enhance Newcastle greatly in a key attacking area for next season.
With Newcastle looking to add further creativity in midfield, JWP fits the bill. Labelled as the ‘best
free kick tacker in the world’ by Pep Guardiola.
What would JWP bring to Tyneside and would he be a good fit in an already powerful Newcastle Midfield?
Body:
James Michael Edward Ward-Prowse, 5 foot 8 and 66kgs, plays for Southampton in centre midfield.
Joining Southampton’s youth team at just 8 years old. JWP has played more than 300 games for the
south coast club.
JWP made his first team debut in 2011 at 16 years old in the league cup against Crystal Palace.
Showing promise, in just his second first team start, JWP scored in a 2-1 win over Coventry city in the
FA cup.
It did not take long for JWP to make his Premier League debut in the 2012/13 season against
Manchester City. In a performance described as “Outstanding” by Nigel Adkins the Southampton
Manager at the time. His stellar play led to a 5-year contract; however he was used mostly as a
substitute with the inconsistent play you would expect from most 18 year olds.
It wasn’t until the 2013/14 season, under new manager Mauricio Pochettino, where JWP truly began
to shine and make his mark in the league. Scoring free kicks, taking most set pieces, JWP became a
dead ball specialist for Southampton. Providing reliability and consistency over the next eight years
at the club.
In March 2017, he made his debut for England in a friendly against Germany. Since then, he has had
11 caps with 2 goals for the 3 lions. Playing well under Gareth Southgate’s steady stewardship (until
recently).
JWP became captain of Southampton in 2020 and in January 2022, after a free kick goal against
Wolves, he became joint second in the list of most free-kick goals in Premier League history with a
total of 12, only trailing the legendary David Beckham (18).
JWP plays mostly as an attacking midfielder and would sit in front of Joelinton and Bruno, he can
also be deployed on the right wing or as an emergency right back. We have covered his deal ball
ability and has the best free-kick conversion rate in the Premier League since 2003 (Opta).
Further, JWP is known for his exceptional fitness he adds a layer of creativity from set pieces and
midfield that Newcastle could strongly benefit from. Let’s take a look at whether he addresses the
deficiencies we need to strengthen in the centre of the park – progressive passes, creativity, pass
completion rate and goals scored.
Analysis
Basic stats and creativity: A
James had a terrific 21/22 season at 27 years old he is right in the middle of his prime as a
midfielder and it has shown. He is a terrific penalty taker and goal scorer. Further analysis uncovers
his “Prowess” creatively, James is in the 83 rd percentile for expected goals and 88 th percentile for
Xa(A pass that assists a shot).
However, a lot of the creative and goal scoring threat JWP possesses comes from dead ball
situations. Which is not necessarily a bad thing, seeing as more than 25% of goals come from set
pieces in the Premier League.
This is further highlighted by his 3.16 shot creating actions per game and astronomical 0.11 Goal
creating actions from dead balls. JWP is no slouch in open play slightly above average in ‘passing that
leads to a shot’, with Southampton (like Newcastle) not having a top tier goal scoring striker up
front. You would expect this stat to improve if he were in a more talented side.
James adds a creative threat from set pieces as well as in open play and most importantly scores
goals. He was Southampton’s top scorer in the league this season with 10 goals and would add more
of an attacking threat to Newcastle United.
Basic stats and Creativity: A
Passing
Firstly, I do like the number of passes played per game and I love the progressive passing distance in
JWP’s game. An eye sore is the pass completion rate of 78.4% for midfielders, this can be explained
by comparing JWP to attacking midfielders rather than traditional ‘midfielders’ which would bump
his ranking up a fair bit.
On the other hand, JWP has poor accuracy with long distance passes with a dismal 44.5% completion
rate, this is not good enough especially considering 23% of all passes per game were long. There is
either something tactically wrong at Southampton or he needs to eliminate it from his game.
Two area’s Newcastle need a stark improvement in are crosses into the penalty area and progressive
passing, James addresses the former indefinitely, providing crosses from an attacking midfield
position and is slightly above average in progressive passes which would be a modest improvement.
Finally, JWP clearly adds creativity from both a dead ball and live situation with his passing range.
1.96 key passes per game (pass leading to a shot) would be a welcome addition at Newcastle and
passing into the final third. Whilst he isn’t the greatest in the league, it would be a clear
Passing: B
Defence
dismal 20% of dribblers tackled. JWP adds little value without the ball. Something that is an eye sore
in the modern game.
Whilst being touted as fit and energetic, James offers little pressure. However, likely due to the
experience he has playing in the Premier League, when he does pressure, he is relatively successful.
A big positive is the 11.59 ball recoveries JWP wins per game, which ranks him in the 85 th percentile a
clear bonus.
The few advantages he does have are unsurprisingly during and post defensive set pieces, where he
has a nous for blocking shots and passes. He is decent at intercepting the ball. In summary James
wouldn’t be signed because of his defensive prowess.
Defense: C+
Possession:
We have covered here how dire Newcastle were this season with touches per game, particularly in the final third. JWP addresses this and will provided an outlet in this area of the pitch with 22.14 touches per game in the opposition final third.
Don’t expect JWP to dribble often, in these positions. When he does, he seems to make the right
decision and is rarely dispossessed. JWP does not carry the ball into the opposition area and to be
fair that isn’t really his game, as he rightly opts to cross the ball from the wing position.
JWP possesses terrific control, rarely miscontrolling the ball, in the 98 th percentile at 0.28 per 90.
While he gets into good positions, he doesn’t receive enough progressive passes which is a slight
concern, as this is an area that needs addressing for Newcastle United this off season.
Possession: B
Conclusion
James Ward-Prowse is someone we clearly have an interest in signing and rightly so. He would bring
another desperately needed goal scoring dimension to the team and would sharpen our strong goal-
scoring capability from set pieces.
Adding creativity, assists and shot creation is another clear area James improves. Additionally, if he
cut a few of those errand long passes out of his game, he would vastly improve our pass completion
rate in the centre of the park.
Throw in an added bonus of additional crosses and subtract a lack of defensive nous and you have
an interesting recipe for this transfer window.
James is not getting any younger and at 27 is approaching the age that Dan Ashworth may prefer to
avoid, this is somewhat mitigated by the Premier League experience James possesses.
Lastly, the price reported is a ridiculous £75m, if that is to be believed there are much better players
(like Paqueta) I would rather see coming to Tyneside this window.
How many Bruno’s out of 5?
What do you think? Is James worth £75 million or would you rather Newcastle prioritise the striker
and wing positions?
No no and no.
Average we don’t need.
Bryan(Quote)
More rubbish being talked up. If NUFC were willing to pay such a large fee, then better going for Lucas Pacqueta (Bruno’s mate). We still can’t sign players, it always takes so long to get deals done, then we miss out.
Mark Cator(Quote)
Without his set pieces, he’s an average mid premier league midfielder and nowhere near his £75 million price tag. Howe wants a high energy/high press team which isn’t JWPs game. If we have £75m to spend on a player it would be better spent on Moussa Diaby. JWP not for me ?
Obi 2 kanobi(Quote)
Tripper can deliver crosses from corners , free kicks and is proven direct shots from free kicks , so why do we need JWP.
Keith wilson(Quote)
Bit of a one trick Pony. Great at it, but it’s an area we have just improved. Need more guile. Paquets or Eriksen type figure
PremAndUp(Quote)
We finished 7th in the set piece table & our best taker didn’t join til Jan & only played 4 or 5 games – Trippier.
I like JWP and probably rate him higher than some of the other comments. But no way is he in the region of £75m.
A midfielder who could still take a freekick, but also gets goals from open player I’d take is James Maddison.
I don’t imagine Leicester would be too keen, but I don’t think Saints would want to get rid of JWP either.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Oh dear on two counts.
When I put together my “richest club in the world shopping list” I had Ward-Prowse down as my 753rd choice. Then I remembered I hadn’t included Ivan Toney. So 754th. Oh, and Sol Campbell, so that’s 755th. Then I remembered all of the players relegated with Burnley, Watford and Norwich, so he stays at 755.
Then I thought “not another blogger who thinks that totally pointless stats actually mean something.”
BykerBill(Quote)
Not good enough to take the team to the next level, Pacqueta or Maddison?
Perhaps we need a clever dangerous forward who can score goals and fall over to get a penalty without being touched like Salah or Jota!
Joseph(Quote)
Yes I agree, there are better midfielders out there and he is too expensive.
Paqueta is a far far better option.
Still Set pieces are underrated in terms of what they provide a team.
The biggest problem is his decline in the next 3 years and whether he is worth that level of investment right now
Ilkka Howard(Quote)