Three reasons I’m still confident about a top four finish after Spurs close gap to a point

It is difficult to readjust to our new position in the Premier League. We are in the top four and have reached the Carabao Cup final. The club is ahead of schedule, but that doesn’t mean that we should be happy to drop out of the Champions League places. 

Fears were raised over the weekend when we drew again in the Premier League. Tottenham’s win over Manchester City saw the North London club move within one point of us, albeit, we do have a game in hand over the side in 5th place. Rather than looking over our shoulders, we should still be confident of causing a surprise and qualifying for next season’s Champions League. There are three main reasons for this:

Our performances since the World Cup

Results haven’t been great, although they are far from disastrous as we are unbeaten since the restart. The first performance against Leicester was excellent and we were clinical on that day. Since, we have struggled to take our chances. When you also consider the Carabao Cup matches, it should be agreed that we are playing well.

In terms of points, we are 8th in the table since the World Cup. However, two of the sides above us have played an extra game. Our ‘biggest’ rivals for the top four are Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool. All of these teams are below us in the form table. 

Based on Understat’s expected points (xPTS) metric, we are fourth in the league table. This metric takes in the expected goals (xG) data from each match and xPTS are awarded to each team based on the chances created. We have taken 10 points from our six matches, but our xPTS is 12.42. This suggests we have been a little unlucky in matches, which will back up what we have seen with our eyes. 

The biggest issue has been our finishing, as we have scored five Premier League goals from 10.15 xG, underperforming it by roughly five. Only Chelsea and Liverpool have had a bigger underperformance during this time. Finishing slumps like this don’t often last for long. If we keep creating these chances, more goals will come.

The return of European football

In future seasons, we hope to be in European competition and be facing the same challenges as our rivals. However, this season, it is a benefit that we aren’t playing in Europe, as we have yet to build a deep enough squad to cope with the extra matches. 

Since the return to action, we have been playing a lot of matches in a short space of time, due to our involvement in the Carabao Cup. In some of our Premier League draws, it is clear that we have faded in matches. In the coming weeks, we have full weeks on the training ground, offering time for the players to work on new patterns and avoid major match loads. This should be hugely beneficial. 

Meanwhile, Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool will all have Champions League ties to contend with. It will benefit us if all three teams progress deeper into the competition, as they would be more liable to dropping points in the league. 

It will be a worry for those sides if we are in the top four, when European football restarts. 

Confidence

One loss in the Premier League is an incredible record for a team fighting for survival just 12 months ago. There will be few squads with more confidence than Newcastle United at the moment. That can be seen on the pitch and in interviews.

There is a winning mentality at the club and that has been built for well over a year. We haven’t lost many matches at all since the beginning of 2022. This isn’t a flash in the pan, rather it is a long period of sustained form that is likely to lead to a top four finish. If Tottenham, Chelsea or Liverpool were showing our form, there would be few doubts about them qualifying for the Champions League. 

It is becoming a difficult task just to score against us, let alone beat us. Maybe, we feel the pressure and begin to lose matches. It is a possibility, but based on what we have watched for a long time now, we should be confident of finishing in the top four.

Stats taken from Understat