Newcastle summer special – Who signs, who goes and Eddie Howe’s top priorities

With the summer window set to officially open on Friday and run until 11pm on August 30th, it’s time to take a deep dive into transfers. Where will we strengthen? Who could sign? Who’s leaving? Will Bruno stay? How much might we spend?

Before we go through the potential ins and outs, it’s been widely reported that the club are prioritising moves for a new right-winger, two centre-backs, another striker and a goalkeeper.

Four priorities

A right-winger just makes sense – a first-team upgrade on Miguel Almiron and Jacob Murphy is thought to be the top priority after an £80m spend on our left wing over the past 18 months – while two centre-backs are also needed. One will be the left-sided Lloyd Kelly to cover for the injured Sven Botman (ACL) and offer another option at left-back, and a right-sided centre-back will also arrive to compete with the ageing Fabian Schar and bolster our squad now Jamaal Lascelles is also out with an ACL and out of contract next summer. We don’t just need more bodies at the back, we need an injection of pace and athleticism to offer our slightly one-paced defence something different.

Another striker is needed, whether Callum Wilson stays or not. If he leaves – which is very possible now he’s 32 and out of contract in 12 months time – we need a more robust option to battle Alexander Isak. If Wilson stays, there’s every chance we look to sign a young, versatile forward who can give us another option, as the former Bournemouth striker can’t be the only option behind Isak based on his injury history.

In goal, we have a capable No 1 in Nick Pope. But we’ll be wary of the 32-year-olds second serious shoulder injury in the space of a few seasons and appear to want a younger goalkeeper to compete with him now and replace him in the future, with it no coincidence that recent links (Trafford, Mamardashvili, Jorgensen, Ramsdale, Lunin and Bulka) are all aged from 21-26. Loris Karius has been released and Martin Dubravka is expected to leave, so it’s likely we sign at least one goalkeeper, whether that’s a young shot-stopper or experienced option to arrive as back-up.

We need an injection of quality to improve our first-team, but it’s also been noted that Howe is eager to recruit players with tactical and positional versatility, with athleticism also desired to bring additional speed, strength and running power to the squad.

It’s worth noting that this could change if we see certain sales. For example, I’d expect another right-back to sign if we decided to sell Kieran Trippier and our search for a new No 6 would take off if Bruno Guimaraes’ £100m clause was activated – but let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. We were heavily linked with another midfielder in January, but Joelinton signing a new deal, Sandro Tonali’s return and the progress of Lewis Miley and Elliot Anderson gives us a different outlook in that department heading into 2024/25.

So, based on the four positions mentioned above, the sort of profiles we are likely to target and the names we’ve been linked with so far, here’s some realistic signings in each position.

Possible signings

GK- James Trafford (Burnley), Giorgi Mamardashvili (Valencia), Filip Jörgensen (Villarreal)

Based on FFP (tedious I know) and the simple fact we are highly unlikely to have the freedom to spend £30m-40m on all four of the priority positions mentioned above, I think a move for Trafford or Jorgensen – a 22-year-old impressing at Villarreal – is more likely than Mamardashvili. It’s clear we like the latter, but also reported that the Georgian could cost over £35m; almost double what we’d likely have to pay for Trafford or Jorgensen.

Based on Howe’s love of domestic options and our chance to buy him while his stock as dropped slightly, I’d put money on our young goalkeeper signing being Trafford; who we launched a bid to sign over the weekend and have already agreed personal terms with, according to Fabrizio Romano.

He had a tough season at Burnley and is not the finished article, but no goalkeeper will be at 21. What he is, however, is a highly-rated England youth international who has real experience for his age, the confidence to play with his feet and the time to learn from  a proven operator in Nick Pope. If he lives up to his potential, we’ll have a future England regular – much like Livramento and Hall – at a very reasonable price that could push Pope and free up funds to spend big elsewhere.

CB – Ousmane Diomande (Sporting Lisbon),  Jean-Clair Todibo (OGC Nice), Mohamed Simakan (RB Leipzig),  Malick Thiaw (AC Milan), Dean Huijsen (Juventus) 

Two are needed, but one deal is already agreed with Lloyd Kelly the left-sided centre-back set to sign a five-year deal on a free transfer. That leaves a right-sided option needed after Tosin Adarabioyo picked Stamford Bridge over St James’ Park following a late offer from Chelsea.

Tosin would’ve been a cheap upgrade on Jamaal Lascelles who could’ve improved under Howe, competed with Schar and freed up funds to spend big elsewhere, so it’ll be interesting to see if we pursue other cut-price options on the market – of which there are few – or push forward our plans to sign a quality young RCB with pace, quality in possession and the ability to be Schar’s long-term replacement.

Three previously linked centre-backs who are right-sided, athletic and out of contract next summer include Maxence Lacroix (Wolfsburg, 24 y/o), Omar Soulet (RB Salzburg, 24 y/o) and Ben Godfrey (Everton, 26 y/o). Given their contractual situations, they could be available for £10-20m.

If we wanted to push the boat out a little more, there’s OGC Nice’s Jean-Clair Todibo and RB Leipzig’s Mohamed Simakan; two 24-year-olds eyeing Premier League moves who are likely to cost in excess of £30m. AC Milan’s Malick Thiaw has also been watched by Newcastle scouts, as has Ousmane Diomande; the 20-year-old Ivorian who is expected to leave Sporting Lisbon this summer. After constant links, he might just be one to watch if we go big after missing out on Tosin.

Dean Huijsen is another name to watch out for after regular mentions via the Italian media. The 6ft 5′ talent is two-footed, very mobile for his height, only 19 and has bags of ability on the ball. If Juventus need to sell for financial reasons, the Dutch-born Spanish U21 star could be ideal.

RW – Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford), Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao), Johan Bakayoko (PSV), Dejan Kulusevski (Spurs)

Michael Olise may be the dream signing, but it feels like a fantasy right now with so many Champions League clubs competing for one of the most in-demand right wingers in world football right now. Without European football and with so much competition, I can’t see him signing.

I think there’ll be too many concerns over the hamstrings of Wolves’ Pedro Neto – who would cost big money considering the injury risk – and believe we may decide that Jarrod Bowen could cost a little too much for his age (27), seeing us go for a younger and slightly cheaper option with the potential to be just as good.

That brings me to Bryan Mbeumo. He ticks so many boxes as a 24-year-old who offers pace, versatility – he performed well up front in Ivan Toney’s absence – intelligent movement, proven quality in the Premier League (15 goal involvements last season in just 26 outings) and the potential to get even better under Eddie Howe.

Athletic Bilbao’s Nico Williams is an intriguing one. It was reportedly a toss up between him and Anthony Gordon 18 months ago after extensive scouting from Newcastle. Since then, he’s taken his game to new heights and has a €50m (£42m) clause in his contract. He can play down both flanks, has pace to burn and is only 21, although I suspect we may target a left-footed right winger instead. 

PSV’s Johan Bakayoko looks a huge talent made for the Premier League, although we may see it as a big risk if our most important summer signing comes from the Eredivisie. I wouldn’t rule out links with Tottenham’s Dejan Kulusevski or Chelsea’s Noni Madueke if either get pushed down the pecking order at their respective clubs over the coming weeks and months. Raphinha would be an incredible signing and has unfinished business in the Premier League after that spell at Leeds, but he may fall into the same category as Bowen as a 27-year-old likely to cost too much?

As a side note, Morgan Gibbs-White is another to keep an eye on. He ticks plenty boxes for Howe as a versatile attacker with plenty of potential, energy and fight, coupled with the fact Forest must sell for PSR reasons, although I’m not entirely sure where he’d fit as a right-footed attacking midfielder. I just think he’s one we may look at if he became available at the right price.

ST – Evan Ferguson (Brighton), Tammy Abraham (Roma), Serhou Guirassy (Stuttgart), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton)

This is a very tricky one. Even if Callum Wilson leaves, it will be tough to attract a quality, proven striker who is happy to compete with one of the best forwards in world football, knowing he’ll spend most of his time on the bench and have no European football (yet) to enjoy guaranteed starts. For that reason, moves for the likes of Benjamin Sesko feel like a non-starter now we’ve missed out on Europe, with Joshua Zirkzee of Bologna another quality but unlikely option. Ivan Toney is a similar example; he’d be a great option alongside Isak, but the former Mag will want to be the main man wherever he goes next.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been linked once again and it appears Howe is a long-term admirer after reports of our interest in the summer of 2022. If he’s cheap and arrives alongside another young striker who can cover for the fact he too has a troubling injury record, it might not be such a bad signing. Dominic Solanke is another player Eddie Howe likes. He may feel now is his time to leave Bournemouth after a brilliant season, but he will cost big money and may not fancy playing second fiddle to Isak now he’s almost 27 and looking to build on 19 goals last term.

I think it’s a long shot if Brighton continue to ask for mega money, but Evan Ferguson could come into our thinking if he hasn’t already. Only 19 and likened to a young Alan Shearer. He may benefit from being Isak’s understudy, given he is anything but a regular starter at the Amex. He’d give us something different, like Livramento and Hall, would be a superb investment for both now and the future. However, Howe has warned that it will cost big money to replace Wilson and Ferguson’s likely price tag would be a good example of that.

Tammy Abraham is someone I can see us looking at. After overcoming a knee injury and spending a few years in Italy with Roma, the 26-year-old may fancy a return to England. He has Premier League experience and could be a shrewd Wilson replacement if available at the right price.

Last but not least comes Serhou Guirassy; the Stuttgart sensation who scored 30 goals in 30 games last season and enters the summer with a €17.5m (£15m) release clause. He’s 28, but that’s peanuts for a striker based on his recent form and he might just fancy a crack at the Premier League. It’s not a long-term signing, but in the world of FFP it’s value for money as an in-form striker four years younger than Wilson.

From the above, a realistic window could see us sign James Trafford, Lloyd Kelly, Ousmane Diomande, Bryan Mbeumo and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, where there’s a mixture of bargains and big-money moves, youth and experience, a signing or two from overseas and plenty with Premier League pedigree.

Who is leaving?

To make a four to six incomings possible, a number of outgoings are also on the cards to raise funds in our fight against FFP, reduce the wage bill and create space in Eddie Howe’s squad.

It’s worth noting that Paul Dummett and Matt Ritchie have already been released along with Loris Karius, Jeff Hendrick and Kell Watts. Below, I categorise some current players in two sections; ‘likely to leave’ and ‘could leave’, with the latter more unlikely.

Likely to leave 

• Ryan Fraser
• Isaac Hayden
• Jamal Lewis
• Harrison Ashby (loan)
• Garang Kuol (loan)
• Martin Dubravka
• Matt Targett
• Joe White (loan)
• Miguel Almiron
• Callum Wilson

Fraser, Hayden and Lewis have completed Championship loans but are not in Howe’s plans. Whether they leave permanently or we only manage to secure another loan, they will almost certainly go. Southampton’s return to the Premier League has paved the way for Fraser to sign permanently, cutting over £60,000-per-week from our wage bill.

Ashby and Kuol are likely to leave on loan again, although we’ll be hoping the latter finds a much better home this time after barely featuring for Volendam over the second half of 2023/24. Joe White could join them in leaving on loan, but this could be the last chance for the Geordie to impress as a 21-year-old who is out of contract in 2025.

I expect Dubravka to leave following interest from Saudi Arabia and Celtic. He’s 35, out of contract next summer and will slip further down the pecking order if he stays, while Matt Targett will be our fourth choice option at left-back once Kelly signs. He is on huge wages, which could cause problems regarding any exit, but needs a move for the sake of his career after an injury-riddled spell.

Then to Almiron and Wilson. The former is set to lose his first team spot to a new right winger, he’s now 30-years-old and was heavily linked with a move in January. For FFP reasons it’s surely time to sell, coupled with the fact Jacob Murphy has proven to be a solid squad option that would allow for Miggy’s exit. The question is, where does he go? It’s rumoured he would fancy a return to the MLS and isn’t keen on Saudi, but the latter are far more likely to pay a decent fee.

Wilson won’t be easy to replace. He’s a proven goalscorer when fit, but he missed 18 games last season via hamstring, calf and chest injuries. The fact he’s out of contract next summer means this is our last chance to land a fee and there’ll still be plenty of takers after 28 goals over the last two seasons.

Could leave?

• Kieran Trippier
• Bruno Guimaraes
• Sean Longstaff
• Yankuba Minteh

Starting at the back, I don’t think we can rule out a move for Trippier. He’s almost 34, he’s out of contract next summer – this could be our last chance to get a fee – and he suffered noticeable dips in form last season and had a couple of injuries. Bayern Munich may not reignite their interest, but Saudi Pro League sides are said to be keen.

With Bruno Guimaraes, it’s believed his £100m release clause will expire on June 24th. He’s regularly said how happy he is on Tyneside and clearly loves life in the Premier League, but no European football may leave us vulnerable. Recent reports suggests Arsenal can’t afford the £100m and that PSG have no plans to sign him, leaving Man City as the big worry, especially now Lucas Paqueta will no longer be targeted following his betting scandal. I’m increasingly hopeful he stays, but he’ll have a massive decision to make if Pep Guardiola does come calling. If the worst happened and he did depart, I’d expect Atalanta’s Ederson to be high on our wishlist.

Sean Longstaff would be sold for ‘pure profit’ as a homegrown player, boosting our balance sheet. He’s another who is out of contract next summer, he’ll lose his first-team spot to Sandro Tonali before long and many believe Lewis Miley is a ready-made replacement. Howe clearly likes him a lot – he’s a solid squad player living his Geordie dream – but FFP could force the boss to lose players he’d ideally keep and Longstaff may be one of them if a decent bid comes in.

As for Minteh, it seems we have three options if he doesn’t return to Feyenoord on loan. Find a Premier League loan that allows him to experience English football, use him next season if he impresses over pre-season or sell him for an immediate profit if a big offer arrives, with the latter a growing possibility after The Telegraph reported that we’ll ‘reluctantly consider’ bids in the region of £40m after a lot of early interest.

Selling Minteh seems like an increasingly possible out come to help with PSR, but it creates a huge dilemma for the club. It may make more sense, sadly, to cash in if that means keeping Bruno and releasing money to sign quality players in other positions, but there’d be a horrible irony about it all if Minteh goes on to become a better winger than the RW we end up signing!

Summer budget?

With FFP limiting the level of funds the Saudi PIF can invest, it’s tough to say nowadays, as the landscape has changed and continues to be fairly unpredictable.

However, with Champions League revenue to play with and lucrative deals secured such as Sela (front-of-the-shirt sponsor worth £25m-per-season) and Adidas (kit supplier worth £40m-per-season), we are growing off the pitch and building commercial revenues, even if they are still some way off certain members of the ‘big six.’

This line from The Athletic was interesting, suggesting a summer budget of around ‘£70-£100m’ plus player sales?

“Howe claims Newcastle no longer operate with conventional budgets, given the complications of PSR, but a level of investment similar to each of the past two summers — somewhere between £70m-£100m — is probable. That is partly dependent on how much Newcastle generate from player sales, however.”

Whatever happens and however much we have to spend, it promises to be a busy summer on Tyneside, where we’ll not only see outgoings before the PSR deadline on June 30th, the Bruno saga play out, the potential arrival of a new sporting director (and performance director) and several first-team signings, but also major investment in our ever-improving academy after a host of U18 and U21 talents were released.

Let the chaos commence.