Newcastle’s next five – A defining month?

Following the second international break of the season Newcastle United will enter a set of five fixtures (before the third international break in early November!!) that will give a clear indication of how the 2024/25 season could ultimately shape up.

The relatively kind opening seven games of the season will give way to a series of five tough looking fixtures that will certainly set the tone for the remainder of the season.

For context: after a tough start to the 2022/23 Champion’s League qualification campaign United had taken just seven points from their first seven league games. In the subsequent run, that the took us right up to that season’s winter World Cup in Qatar, Newcastle won 22 points from the next eight league games to really ignite the fuse on a fabulous run that culminated in the League Cup final and the 4^th place finish.

So, let’s examine the next five games:

Brighton (H) – St. James’ Park, 19 October

Brighton have had good start to the season. They have the exact same record as Newcastle, are playing some pleasing football on the eye, and have beaten Man Utd and Spurs, and drawn with Arsenal.

They’ve scored 13 goals and conceded ten (the only side in the top half to concede double figures) and they took Yankuba Minteh off us in the summer and he has looked decent so far this season.

In 32 league and cup matches Newcastle have won 11 and lost 12 against the Seagulls and have taken some bad beatings against them, one as recently as last year at the Amex.

However, for all their passing fluidity, Fabian Hürzeler’s side have looked vulnerable at the back as they play an incredibly high defensive line, which Chelsea really showed up in their only defeat of the season. That game finished 4-2 but it really could’ve been anything that afternoon.

A tough fixture for sure but certainly not unwinnable. If Isak is fit and Brighton continue to play with the high line (which they will) then we’ve seen what the lad can do against that tactical setup over the last two campaigns.

Chelsea (A) – Stamford Bridge, 27 October

The site of one of last season’s most disappointing outings – the League Cup QF defeat. Normally this would be earmarked for revenge, but the quirks of the Cup draw have meant that angle will be reserved for the game just three days later.

Chelsea are on a decent run, unbeaten in six, and have scored 16 goals in those games, picking up 14 points (just two ahead of United). Again, they have played some pleasing-on-the-eye football with big wins against Wolves, West Ham and Brighton.

Chelsea have shown themselves to be flaky and despite having some exceptional talents in the squad, (you’d still expect more for the amount of money they’ve spent mind) they play the same high defensive line as Brighton and have one of the worse shot saving ‘keepers in the league, who often gives the ball away at the back.

Unfortunately, United have a terrible record at Stamford Bridge and haven’t won there in 11 attempts since Papiss Cisse’s outrageous brace bagging performance in May 2012. But records are there to be broken.

Chelsea (H) (League Cup), St. James’ Park, 30 October

If this was sports entertainment, this fixture would be billed as the NUFC Revenge Tour 2024. If I had to choose one game to win out of the back-to-back Chelsea fixtures this would be it.

Getting the cup-monkey off our backs has the potential to really fire this new era into the stratosphere for United, so if I had to choose just one victory, I’d want it to be in this game.

Playing the same team in consecutive fixtures is one of my footballing pet peeves as I think one game tends to inform the other, but the vital factor is that the match is at home, and I’d back us to beat anyone at home. The teams will probably be rotated so it will probably come down to who wants it more on the evening.

Arsenal (H) – St. James’ Park, 2 November

The 12:30 game just three days after a midweek fixture, if Eddie Howe was Mikel Arteta, you’d never hear the end of it. To be fair, Arsenal do have a fixture the same night, but it is against Preston North End, so expect them to be vastly more heavily rotated than United will have been against Chelsea.

I feel like this is the right moment to put the last two seasons’ home record below:

2022/23: 39 points from 19 matches
(11 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, 36 goals scored)
2023/24: 40 points from 19 matches
(12 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, 49 goals scored)

Of course, one of those 12 wins last year was against Arsenal, in a victory which kicked off a near year of Arsenal fans crying and moaning on social media about the shape of a sphere. The record shows United are excellent value on Barrack Road.

The North Londoners are now the 2^nd best team in the league although you’ve always got the feeling that they haven’t really gotten close to overturning Man City’s dominance, despite the relatively small points differentials between the two sides over the last two seasons.

Arsenal play good, incise football and are a constant danger from set pieces. Add in the 12:30 kick off, which always tend to feel flat, and it will be another examination of Newcastle’s heart and determination. A good performance required, whatever the result, in what should be a spikey affair.

Nottingham Forest (A) – City Ground, 10 November

Too early for a must win. But these are the sorts of fixtures you must pick up three points in if you want to finish in the top four. Will be a game massively informed by what comes before it.

Forest have been much better than pundits and fans thought they would be this year taking ten points from their first seven games, including a win at Anfield. Elliot Anderson is playing well for them, in another painful transfer for United, but we have won there on each occasion since their promotion two seasons ago.

If United have done well and have picked up anywhere between 4-7 points (and progressed in the Cup) in the last 3 league games, then a draw at the City Ground would be an excellent point to round out the little run unbeaten.

If it has gone poorly then it really will feel like United have to take all three on the day.