As thoughts turn to the January transfer window, here are some of the numbers behind Newcastle’s transfer activity since the takeover.
Firstly, a look at the squad the owners inherited:
Goalkeepers – Martin Dubravka, Karl Darlow, Mark Gillespie, Freddie Woodman
Defenders – Ciaran Clark, Paul Dummett, Fabian Schar, Jamaal Lascelles, Jamal Lewis, Emil Krafth, Federico Fernandez, Javier Manquillo.
Midfielders – Matty Longstaff, Jonjo Shelvey, Isaac Hayden, Jeff Hendrick, Joe Willock, Elliott Anderson, Sean Longstaff.
Wingers – Allan Saint-Maximin, Matt Ritchie, Ryan Fraser, Jacob Murphy, Miguel Almiron.
Strikers – Joelinton, Callum Wilson, Dwight Gayle.
This was a poor Premier League squad, and was before players like Schar, Sean Longstaff, Almiron and Joelinton were coached into key players for a team that would go on to qualify for the Champions League less than two years post-takeover. Only a couple of this squad would have been worth anything close to the £20m mark if Newcastle cashed in at that time. It bore all the signs of Mike Ashley’s disinterest in turning his regretful purchase into anything resembling a functioning Premier League club.
However, what Ashley’s parsimony did was make this sleeping giant football club appeal to potential investors and left the new owners with significant Profit and Sustainability (PSR) wiggle room when they took over. Across six transfer windows starting with January 2022, Newcastle have spent around £440m on transfer fees. This is the seventh highest spend in the Premier League in that period with Chelsea (£1.2b), Manchester United (£665m), Arsenal (£577m), Spurs (£576m), Manchester City (£479m) and West Ham (£464m) all outspending Newcastle. Aston Villa (£428m), Brighton (£390m) and Liverpool (£373m) make up the rest of the top ten.
Newcastle’s net spend over that period of £330m is the fifth highest. While the other non-‘big 6’ clubs Aston Villa, West Ham and Brighton sold homegrown players or systematically sold a number of players at a huge profit, Newcastle brought in only £110m in transfer fees. The bulk of this was the depressing PSR enforced sales of Elliott Anderson and Yankuba Minteh in June 2024 with only Saint-Maximin and Chris Wood sold for notable figures before then.
While the net spend since 2021 has been significant, investment was required initially stave off the threat of relegation, and subsequently to progress as quickly as possible. The squad had been neglected for years with only the odd random burst of uncharacteristic spending (Joelinton) balancing out the bargain basement buys and policy of handing long contracts to ageing players, which Ashley deemed cheaper than replacing them.
Since the start of the 2023 summer transfer window (when Newcastle did pay significant fees for Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento) they are only the eleventh highest spenders in the Premier League, coming in behind Brighton, West Ham, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. A net spend of £80m in that time is low for a club who had to prepare an already overachieving squad for a Champions League campaign, and then with ambitions to get back into Europe this season. Eddie Howe and the Newcastle hierarchy are not deceiving supporters or making excuses when they talk about PSR restrictions. The proof is in the scaling back of the spending since 2023 and the mad dash to sacrifice the club’s best young players to avoid sanctions in 2024.
Meanwhile, at almost £99m per year, Newcastle have the eighth highest wage bill (usually a more reliable indicator of finishing position than transfer spend) in the Premier League. Whichever way you look at it, Newcastle overachieved with the 4th placed finish in 2021/22 and there is also an argument that the 7th placed finish in 2022/23 was an overachievement, particularly given the mitigation of the injury crisis for the bulk of that season.
Compare Newcastle’s current squad to that above and the answer to the question of whether Newcastle have spent their £440m wisely would be a resounding YES. Due to a combination of effective recruitment and excellent coaching, the squad now has around ten players that would fetch upwards of £30m if sold in today’s market, and a couple would go for at least double that. Unlike previously when the club could not countenance selling any of its few valuable players, there should now be more palatable options for player trading than selling a Bruno or an Isak, although eventually it is a sad reality that one of the big stars may move on.
Tied in with selling the right players at the right times is the scouting and recruitment departments working efficiently, which is where Paul Mitchell comes in. When there is limited money available (or at least little leeway within the current regulations) it is critical that resources are maximised. Mitchell had a difficult start due to the timing of his appointment and the PSR situation, but he would not have taken the job if he wasn’t convinced of the club’s ambition and potential. It is now up to Mitchell and Howe to align in their thinking and work together for the benefit of Newcastle United. There can be no repeat of summer 2023, whether the friction between the two was real or perceived.
So, what does this mean for the January window? It is not now lost on anybody within the club that events in the transfer market can shape the narrative. A signing can galvanise the fanbase as well as improving the team, but the Newcastle hierarchy have proven that they will only act if it is in the long-term interests of the club, and they will not risk a PSR breach again. If offers are made and if targets become available at a fair price, expect some movement, although other Premier League clubs remain mindful of PSR and overseas clubs don’t have the finances to compete with Premier League transfer fees and wages. Newcastle are impacted by the wider marker, and this could result in a quieter window than we would hope for as we aim to push for Europe.
Whatever happens in January, evidence from the last three years points to progress over time.
HWTL!
