Not so long ago, Nottingham Forest, Man City and Chelsea were considered the favourites to seal a spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League.
However, with four Premier League wins on the spin, seven goals in our last two games and a second-half hammering of Man Utd on Sunday, Newcastle United are absolutely flying.
We’re up to fourth, have a game in hand on our rivals and there is genuine belief we’ve hit form at the right time as we push towards a return to Europe’s elite competition.
But what do data experts Opta think after a weekend full of twists and turns in the race for a top five finish?
Opta update predictions
According to Opta, Newcastle United are now on track to finish third in the Premier League in what would be an emphatic end to the 2024/25 campaign.
Opta’s projections show an ‘expected points’ of 67.47, giving us an 83.67% chance of making the top five and securing a spot in next season’s Champions League.
Here are their latest predictions below following a weekend of football that saw Nottingham Forest lose, Chelsea drop points at home to Ipswich and both Aston Villa (3-0) and Man City (5-2) win comfortably:
This would see Newcastle finish above Man City and both Aston Villa (6th) and Chelsea (7th) fail to make the Champions League, with Nottingham Forest hanging on in 5th.
How many points from our final seven fixtures?
Based on their projections, Newcastle are currently expected to get 11-12 points from our final seven games, which are:
- Crystal Palace (H)
- Aston Villa (A)
- Ipswich (H)
- Brighton (A)
- Chelsea (H)
- Arsenal (A)
- Everton (H)
Should we pick up another 11 points and end the season on 67, that could mean three wins, two draws and two defeats?
Perhaps wins over Ipswich, Chelsea and Everton, draws against Palace and Brighton, along with defeats at Aston Villa and Arsenal; although that is perhaps being a little harsh given our recent run of five straight wins.
Either way, Opta think 67 points would be enough to seal third, highlighting what a huge chance we now have of securing top five football and that vitally important return to the Champions League.
