Early window worries at Newcastle United

Death, taxes and Newcastle United fans getting agitated about a transfer window.

It is just over two weeks since the Magpies confirmed their second Champions League campaign in three years, but the relief and satisfaction of that achievement has now given way to anxiety about the squad not being equiped for the season ahead.

Although it is a shame that there is no time afforded to reflect and bask in the glow of a cup win and a top five finish, there are a few good reasons for the feelings of unease currently permeating the fanbase.

Newcastle’s business for the last two years has been restricted and limited due to PSR, which evidently remains a challenge even if the inactivity of the previous three windows means the purse strings should be able to be loosened a bit. Ambition continues to be checked on non-‘big six’ clubs throughout the Premier League and it means clubs like Newcastle can ill afford transfer mistakes. They need to recruit well.

Related to this is the continuing free spending of rival clubs such as Manchester United and Chelsea, who have both agreed deals for attacking reinforcements early in the window, albeit Matheus Cunha and Liam Delap had release clauses which made those transfers more straightforward. Just because clubs are spending though doesn’t necessarily mean they are doing so effectively, and neither of those clubs should be looked upon with envy given the scant returns on their investment over the last few years. Liverpool are another club spending big, although last summer they too did very little in the way of incoming transfers.

Back on Tyneside, Paul Mitchell’s untimely departure raises questions about the executive structure at Newcastle and, most pressingly, about the direction of this current transfer window. Even if Mitchell was never a good fit and was too abrasive a character to work well with Eddie Howe, the optics of the most senior figure in the recruitment department leaving less than 12 months into the job and in the middle of a transfer window are not good.

Mitchell was heavily involved in last summer’s upheaval and the embarrassing failed pursuit for Marc Guehi. With those events still fresh in the minds of the Newcastle fanbase it adds more cause for concern this time around.

Howe himself actually fanned the flames of expectation and anticipation after the Everton game by saying the club needed to act quickly and emphasizing the size of the task this summer. It isn’t often he is so unequivocal and perhaps reflecting on that interview he may have chosen not to be so assertive, knowing that this is a fanbase that devours any morsel of information. Conversely, Howe is acutely aware that he is the man in the firing line if things go wrong next season, and he is under no illusions that to compete on four fronts again the squad needs injections of both quality and depth.

Underpinning all of this, and despite the success of the last three years, is some residual Mike Ashley PTSD. It is still hard to get away from the sense that Newcastle United and transfer windows just don’t get along. Miserable memories of Sky Sports News crossing to a lonely Keith Downie reporting from outside Darsley Park that Newcastle are ‘closed for business’ after failing to sign Hamza Choudhury on loan. Even going back to the summers of Lee Bowyer and Vurnon Anita where the Magpies should have kicked on from a position of strength and instead stood still to go backwards.

The event that appeared to tip an already fretful online fanbase into a full-blown panic attack was the retained list, which indicated that the Magpies had re-signed Mark Gillespie for a year and are negotiating new deals with John Ruddy and Callum Wilson. Predictable tropes that Howe is too sentimental and not ruthless enough were supplemented by wilder and demonstrably false takes that Howe only wants to sign British players and that PIF have lost interest. That the hierarchy lack ambition.

Taking the goalkeepers first, clearly neither of them are going to play first-team football for Newcastle, but they are valued by Howe for their professionalism and role within the squad. It is entirely probable (and arguably desirable) that Dubravka and Vlachodimos both leave, which would make Ruddy third choice assuming the club sign a new goalkeeper as appears likely. There is no risk attached to giving Ruddy and Gillespie extensions.

Nobody would argue that Callum Wilson’s last two seasons have gone to plan, and this would appear to be a logical time for him to continue his career elsewhere, but there are a few reasons why Newcastle might want to retain him (on a contract with a reduced wage on an appearance incentivised contract).

Strikers are enormously expensive, and Newcastle have the additional complication that signing one good enough to deputise for Isak but who is content to start most games on the bench is not an easy task. It’s clear that priority positions are right-wing / forward and centre-back. To buy players good enough to enhance the first team is going to cost a lot of money. Wilson signing for another year could kick the striker can down the road for 12 months and allow funds to be diverted, particularly if Howe thinks Osula is ready for more game time next season. It could also be the case that the club and Wilson know he is going, but he asked them not to announce it now while he negotiates with other prospective employers. His emotional goodbye on the pitch after the Everton game would certainly indicate that a parting of the ways is on the cards.

This ultimately boils down to trust and faith in Eddie Howe and his decision making. He won’t get everything right all the time, but if he sees value in retaining some senior squad players on deals with negligible risk then his judgement can surely be respected in the knowledge that he will have weighed up the pros and cons with the full context in mind (context which is not always readily apparent to supporters).

The obvious counter to all of the above concerns about the current direction of Newcastle United is that the transfer window opened less than two weeks ago. There are still almost four weeks until pre-season training starts, another six weeks on top of that until the season starts, and two more weeks after the first ball is kicked until the window closes. Admittedly the same was said throughout last summer, but there were the mitigating financial and staffing factors which contributed to what was undeniably a bad transfer window in summer 2024. None of that stopped the greatest season in living memory for most fans.

Most of Newcastle’s big transfers over the last three years have come between late June and August, and generally news of those transfers has only broken in the media when the deal was all but signed, sealed and delivered. It is beyond doubt that the club are working hard behind the scenes to strengthen the squad, and they are likely waiting for some other moves to kick-start the market. One of the unintended consequences of PSR and the wealth of the Premier League is that most clubs are under no pressure to sell their key assets and can name their price. This means negotiations are likely to be more protracted and drawn out, particularly while there is still months of the window to go and it is in clubs’ and agents’ interests to drive for the highest price possible.

We live in a world of instant gratification, and football fans are not good at patience, but we have no choice for now but to trust our manager and have faith that the ownership that has transformed our club will do what needs to be done and get it right in the transfer market again as they have before.

HWTL!