Why major Newcastle signings may come in July after Marc Guehi blow

It’s a tale as old as time, or at least as old as our renewed ambitions on Tyneside. You log onto your preferred news outlet, grab a cuppa, and there it is: another long-term Newcastle United target seemingly slipping through our grasp.

This time, according to The Telegraph, it's Marc Guehi, with Liverpool now reportedly leading the race and a "major bid imminent." A familiar sting, isn't it folks?

For those of us who followed the transfer sagas last summer, Guehi's name was practically etched into our minds. Eddie Howe was clearly a huge admirer, and it felt like we spent the entire window trying to prise him away from Crystal Palace.

Reports suggested we even tabled as many as four bids, with the final one reportedly reaching a substantial £65 million. Palace, however, held firm, reportedly wanting closer to £70 million, and the deal never materialised. Now, with just a year left on his contract, it appears #Liverpool are poised to swoop in.

Naturally, it's frustrating. Guehi is a top-class defender, an England international, and precisely the kind of player who would undoubtedly strengthen our backline. He's got the pace, the composure, and the leadership qualities that Howe values so highly. To see him potentially heading to Anfield, especially after our protracted pursuit, is a bitter pill to swallow.

However, before we all descend into a collective meltdown, it's crucial to understand the intricate dance Newcastle United is performing in this summer's transfer window. It's not simply a case of opening the Saudi coffers and splashing the cash.

As many of you will know, July 1st marks a crucial date in the financial calendar for Premier League clubs. This is when the PSR cycle "renews," meaning a big year of losses (for us, the £73 million loss from the 2021/22 season, the first under PIF ownership) drops off our three-year reporting period.

This essentially frees up significant headroom within the £105 million allowable loss over a three-year period, giving us significant headroom to then spend big after three windows without a major signing.

So, while the news about Guehi to Liverpool stings, we have to consider the possibility of waiting until July, alongside the possibility he himself may not have committed to an early move to Newcastle if he knew reigning champions Liverpool were lining up a bid?

Missing out on Guehi now might be disappointing, but we'll have to hope another top centre-back option is being lined up instead.