Currently we have 27 points on the board meaning that we need to find another 13 before the end of the season of we are to hit the magical 40 point barrier that is generally required for survival.
Wins for Aston Villa and Southampton over the weekend mean that the gap between us and the bottom three has been reduced to just four points, but with games coming up involving ourselves and teams in and around us there is scope for us to dig ourselves out of trouble providing we get back to winning ways in our next league game at home to Southampton in just under a fortnight.
Looking at the bottom three, starting with 18th placed Reading, they need to pick up 1.4 points per game if they are to hit the 40 point safety net. They basically have to win just under half of their games. Wigan in 19th need nearly 1.6 points per game, or to win just over half of their remaining fixtures whilst rock bottom QPR (1.9 points per game) need to win just under two thirds of their remaining games.
That kind of form has been elusive for all three teams all season long and with time running out one of them has to find a bit of form if they are to avoid the drop. Usually, one of them does though so we need to look at teams outside of the bottom three just in case.
First up we have Aston Villa in 17th. They need to pick up 1.3 points per game whilst we need to pick up marginally over one point per game, or four wins and a draw if you like. A win against Southampton would ease that somewhat but they are in form and will be full of confidence after beating Manchester City at the weekend.
This is of course assuming 40 points is the actual safety net and not just a figure plucked from thin air because it’s roughly right. Since the Premier League dropped to a 20 team format back in 1995 only three teams (Sunderland – 1997, Bolton – 1998 and West Ham – 2003) have been relegated with 40 points or above. Adding the numbers up for those who finish in 18th place taking the final relegation place the average points haul required is 37 (it’s actually 36 but I’ve added an extra point to avoid any goal difference issues) which is only ten points away from us currently.
So looking at our fixtures can we identify the game where three points could be on the cards?
Southampton (h)
Swansea (a)
Stoke (h)
Wigan (a)
Man City (a)
Fulham (h)
Sunderland (h)
West Brom (a)
Liverpool (h)
West Ham (a)
QPR (a)
Arsenal (h)
Surely there is scope for ten points from those fixtures? Even 13 points if you want to make sure? Of course this is all very logical and as we all know football isn’t logical too often. Anyone can beat anyone on their day but I’m quietly confident we can grab the points needed to survive, put this season to bed and look forward to next season.
Famous last words?
My tuppence:
Southampton (W)
Swansea (L)
Stoke (D)
Wigan (D)
Man City (L)
Fulham (W)
Sunderland (W)
West Brom (D)
Liverpool (D)
West Ham (W)
QPR (W)
Arsenal (L)
I make that 19 points which will be enough to stay up. We have seen some new-found resolve which has been lacking over the first half of the season, in fact until Chelsea. The Spuds game wasn’t beyond us either.
Three wins and three draws will see us through. If you think that HBA is also due to come back we will have enough firepower even if the defence can still be porous.
Susan Boyle(Quote)
Good read Toonsy I can see us getting atleast 5 wins, and if we play as good as we have been I really don’t see why we can’t get wins from the next 4 games, or maybe i’m deluded 😀
Big Dave(Quote)
At worst I see 11 points which would be enough to stay up.
Because it means both Reading and Aston Villa will have to get 15 points from their final 12 games. (Don’t see them BOTH doing that).
Wigan and QPR are gone… QPR would need 21 points from 12 games to even give themselves half a chance.
I think we’ll get around 17 points which would see us climb to 44 points and we’ll finish around 14th-15th.
JJ(Quote)
Good one Big Dave, now you have just jinxed us mate 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Also, I know they are looking ok right now, but I see Norwich as one of the teams in serious serious trouble. They have some tough fixtures coming up and I think they’ll be in the bottom four within a month.
JJ(Quote)
36
Stuart79(Quote)
On our day we can beat anyone on that list..
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
If we could get through this tie with Metalist, then pick up three quick wins in the league. Which is possible given the fixture list. Then I see no reason why the Europa League couldn’t become a priority.
A trophy would be massive for this club. I really hope they don’t just put the competition on the back burner.
JJ(Quote)
Dave 😯 Has your negger fuse exploded? 😆
Surely we can win at least 3 though…Southampton game is crucial imo.
Newkie(Quote)
ime sticking with needing 40 points,one of the most important games in the next one got to get that winning feeling back othewise your thinking can these french lads handle the panic thats bound to happen if we dont 😐 😐 😐
icedog(Quote)
Newkie 🙂 🙂 🙂 I must admit that nearly spilt my beer when I read Dave’s post.. 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Also think if we can keep the basic squad together for next season, we finally have the depth to attack one of the domestic cups!
Can you imagine what a decent league performance and a Wembly appearance would do for this club!
JJ(Quote)
JJ-That’s the thing though, we need safety first and I dont’ blame them. If we’d beaten Spurs we’d have been sailing and I would have been happy with sending a top side out against Metalist, now I’m not so sure again..obviously if we won our next 2/3 league games it could be made a priority but I don’t think that will happen….
Newkie(Quote)
Ice, where have you been hiding mate? I thought you may have been trapped in Subway because Richie was stuck in the entrance again 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Aussie 😆
Newkie(Quote)
Other than city we can pick up results in all of those games. I’m not saying we will but I would be confident enough. The main thing is we are in control of our own destiny. We keep picking up results we will be fine.Think there is even an opportunity to finish higher up the table but I think top 10 is gone. 12th and to win Europa league and I’ll be happy 😆
Johno toon(Quote)
AMF ive been trying to “talk”richie out mate before they send swat team in 😆 wigan always seem to kick start in the last 8/10 games so would not rule them out,the thing you have to look at is who are the teams down there playing because if they have nothing to play for it makes it that tad more easy we have to play some teams going for euro places so its a bit harder imo
icedog(Quote)
when you look at it from the last time we went down we are one point worse off at this stage
icedog(Quote)
Aussie do you not think we can win the next 4 if we play like we have been and the fact Benny will be in the mix ?
Big Dave(Quote)
I wouldn’t worry about where we were 5 seasons ago ice. Much better side now. Not just in terms of ability but also character. Southampton is going to be a massive game. They are the games we need to win
Johno toon(Quote)
Ice-But there’s less of a circus and a much much better side, imo 😉
Newkie(Quote)
Johno-Do think Saints will be the game of the season, if they beat us on our own patch thats 6 points (I’m not going to mention the theoretical 12 pointers!) they’ll have taken from us and they’ll be flying, with confidence in their new manager who many had ruled out. If we can win it’ll put the pressure back on them and will give us a platform for winnable games at Swansea and Stoke. Hopefully benny will be back and fit for Wigan.
Newkie(Quote)
NEWKIE that was my point @ 10 mate
icedog(Quote)
Great minds Ice 😎
Newkie(Quote)
Reckon on 14 min.
5 pts away & 9 at home.
2 wins & 8 draws.
Premandup(Quote)
We will win every game apart from the City game. No doubt about it 😀
Santii(Quote)
probably need a minimum of 38, predict (if no major injuries) we’ll get 45-50 and finish 9th or 10th
M(Quote)
I calculated worst case scenerio being about 12pts similar to JJs reasoning. Reading are currently in that fearful bottom third place and are 4 points behind us, with obviously Wigan and QPR fewer again. But if we can notch at least 12points, I can’t see Reading getting 17 more points or Wigan getting 19 more points or QPR getting 23 more points.
Being optimistic I see 7-9points from our next 4 games. If we get less than 6 then I’d be disappointed and alittle worried to be honest.
Sharpy17(Quote)
I would like to think 14-15 points should be enough. Tough ask really but with our squad should be more than manageable.
Interesting quotes from pards in journal today and he basically confirmed his preferred front six;
Tiote———-Cabaye————Sissoko
——-Hba——————-Gouffran——-
——————Cisse————————-
Liam Southern Toon(Quote)
Dave – regarding the question you put to Aussie, I reckon with Benny in the mix we have to be looking at 7-9 points from the next 4 games. He’s a good player but he won’t correct all our wrongs and transform our season IMO. Personally I’d like to see us set up this way for Saints and Swans:
——————– Krul —————-
Debuchy – Saylor – Colo – Santon
———- Cabaye —- Anita ———-
— Gouffran – Sissoko – Benny —
—————— Cisse —————–
I think Anita would move the ball quicker and pass it better than Perch or Tiote and Saints seem to press the ball alot more aggressively now and I think Anita may handle that pressure a bit better than those 2 as well. However, I believe Pardew will more likely go with Tiote in place of Anita.
I also think that if Gouffran is not fit, he’ll go with Jonas on the left of the 3 and move Benny right.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Liam thats the same as my front 6
Big Dave(Quote)
Big dave – Aye all these people saying jonas and ameobi are his fave need to get real. When he gets his best players back and fit he will play them.
Thats with players like anita, marv, obertan, perch on the bench if needed.
Wheres BB and his love for marv after sats performance? 😆
Liam Southern Toon(Quote)
Liam – I hadn’t seen your post before I wrote my line up, so my preferred was nearly right. But I did go in to say Pardew would go with Tiote – oh and I haven’t read the Journo today either 😉
Sharpy17(Quote)
The Saints biggest threat will come from Lallana. If we nullify him then we should overcome them easily.
They may have beat Man City but I have never seen City play so poorly.
JJ(Quote)
Big Dave, of course I think we can win those games mate, we have the cattle and a little momentum to go with it. I just didn’t want to be the only one jinxing the team 🙂 🙂
Ice 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
I hope Pardz is taking note of JJ’s posts on here.. tactical genius 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Looks like Gouffran is going to be o.k… just a bit bruised… bit of a soft **** effort if that’s the case.. the game was on the line and he needed carting off. At the time I was struggling to see where all the damage was done, I thought he had been cut maybe. It is pretty hard to break a leg when it is not planted on the ground.. he will need to harden up if he is going to want to play 90 mins week in week out in the PL. He looks very promising tho, don’t get me wrong. 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
JJ – for some reason Lallana has started the last 2-3 games on the bench :shock:. The new gaffer has went with Steven Davis instead. Rodriguez and Puncheon will be my concern. Both will attack our full backs with pace and direct runs.
I’m sure Puncheon is out of contract at the end of the season, I’d still take him on a free like.
Sharpy17(Quote)
JJ – I’d agree with that although they are an organised team and work hard.
Im convinced if we go all out in first 15mins to get early goal will knock their confidence and the crowd will take over.
First up metalist…..
Liam Southern Toon(Quote)
Sharpy, at least we won’t have to neutralize lallana 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Sharpy-I agree, decent squad player scores some great goals, completely dicked us over last time out as well
Newkie(Quote)
Wonder what we’ll do with the Europa as far as the defence goes…Will Mapou partner Willo I wonder? 😕
Newkie(Quote)
Least Gouffran has shown he can find the net, albeit a huge deflection. Start him over Cisse when Ben Arfa gets back. Or Shola. Or anyone really. In training just get each player to have 10 chances from 8 yards away and whoever gets the most replaces Cisse
Moreno(Quote)
Might be a safe bet that one Newkie…
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
How are the hammy’s Moreno?? 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
AMF,
Both my calves. Can barely walk 😆
First half my left calf went after about 30 mins but there was no way I was coming off half an hour into my debut, I might have not been picked again so I didn’t mention it and just tried to ‘run it off’
Second half my right went in a sliding tackle and again I lied and said it was cramp to see how I went but after 10 more minutes that was me. Lasted an hour, 2 pulled muscles which unsurprisingly I couldn’t ‘run off’
We lost 3-0
Moreno(Quote)
Moreno 🙂 🙂 that’s exactly why I have never pulled the boots on again. 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Moreno 😆
Newkie(Quote)
Aussie – looks like Perch may mark him after all 😉
Newkie – I reckon he’s a much better option than Overtan and if Benny is injured or missing for whatever reason, he’d be an adequate stand in, and for nowt we’d be mad to look past him. I’m sure we will tho 🙁
Sharpy17(Quote)
Sharpy, true mate 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
A debut to remember Moreno 😀
Santii(Quote)
Moreno, Did you need oxygen like Gouff? 🙂 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Moreno – good one ya for seeing it thro to the end mate. What position were you in like mate?
Sharpy17(Quote)
Sharpy-He was in goals the whole time I heard 😉
Newkie(Quote)
Sharpy, pre match warm up I showed some great touches, control and passing. Surprised myself and gave a completely false representation of my ability. Manager must of thought he had some player on his hands so put me in the number 10 role behind the striker 😆 😆 😆
When my initial enthusiasm of running round like a headless chicken for 15 minutes had worn off and I was knackered I think it hit home that I didn’t have the energy or the ability. So second half got shifted to left wing where I played the Jonas role and didn’t even get it the opposition half!
Looking forward to next week anyway if I can walk again by then 🙄
Moreno(Quote)
Newkie – he was playing?! – sorry I thought they had him running the line 😳 😛
Sharpy17(Quote)
To be fair though, for that 15 minutes I was the best player on the park. It was the rest of the time I was a liability 😆
Moreno(Quote)
Sharpy, the linesman covered more distance than I did, glad I wasn’t running the line
Moreno(Quote)
Moreno-You sound just like your hero 😀
Newkie(Quote)
Newkie,
His greatest achievement is doing it so consistently for so many years 😆
Moreno(Quote)
Moreno – 😆 😆 at least you got a good 15mins out of it.
I hung my boots up at about 27. Busted my knee up playing rugby on a Sat and footy on a Sun from about 17. Gave footy another go to help a mate out when I was 30. Played CB and similarly had a cracking 15-20mins. Had the CF in my back pocket, then stupidly went chasing after him, got nee where near him and he realized how to play me. I clattered him and got a yellow card before being replaced at half time – by the kid who was running the bloody line 🙁
Needless to say it was a short lived comeback 🙄 loved the banter of Sunday league footy tho.
Sharpy17(Quote)
SHARPY/MORENO,bloody soft shites,try playing in your 40s in 70c with only a damp rag to wipe down with, thought you were players 😆 😆 😆 AUSSIE will tell how tough games oot there,and nee grass either 😉
icedog(Quote)
lack of fitness if you ask me,keep oot the pub it might help 😀 😀
icedog(Quote)
Ice 🙂 🙂 the water for our magic sponge would evaporate in the heat before we got to bloody use it 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
Ice, Moreno was spotted by his teams talent scout in a pub mate 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
AMF your reet mate they dont know how easy they have it,just need a bit more skill and guile,and remember they cannot limp fast 😆 bring them down to your level if your stuggleing 😉
icedog(Quote)
Ice do you mean “try playing in your 40s” or “try playing in the ’40s”… 😉
JJ(Quote)
Bloody oath mate, when a cocky young fella would come on the park and show some flair, one “well timed” crunching tackle would keep em quiet for the rest of the game 🙂 I remember playing with a pommie fella and he asked a young fella playing for the opposition if had private health insurance in case of a bad injury. The young fella was not seen near the ball from then on 🙂 🙂
Aussie Magpie Fan(Quote)
JJ to quote batty, knob rot 😆 😆 😆 😆
icedog(Quote)
when i was over in bowen you had to watch out for getting tackled my the drain on the pitch
alanthedog363(Quote)
AMF 😆 😆 😆 any way they are playing “penny floaters” now not a proper casey 😀
icedog(Quote)
Aussie…
You can leave out the “tactical” part… Just “genius” will suffice.
In fact I think Pards has been taking notes lately. He just needs to carry an iPad for help with his substitutes. He clearly pays no attention during games.
JJ(Quote)
ALAN T D,its your wallet you had to watch owr there mate 😉
icedog(Quote)
Ice – To be fair I was know as the Geordie Jan Molby in my playing days. I was never much of an athletic sportsman, but I was great at finding space and pinging the ball about, and on a rugby field, well I was the cracker that would put the big tackles in, win the ball and give it to the speed demons behind. Looking at my sons build I reckon he’s gonna be a chip off the old block 😉
Sharpy17(Quote)
SHARPY good on yer mate hope the son sticks to the footy like 😆 to be honest being built like a greyhound it was speed and good crosser was my forte put them on a tanner as they used to say,didnt mind putting the foot in like (but fairly 😉 ) by the way hows the pup coming on?
icedog(Quote)