After a busy midweek of Premier League fixtures, the top five race is starting to take shape, with the Premier League top 10 looking like this:
- Liverpool – 73 points
- Arsenal – 61 points
- Nottingham Forest – 57 points
- Chelsea – 52 points
- Man City – 51 points
- Newcastle – 50 points (played one game less)
- Aston Villa – 48 points
- Brighton – 47 points
- Fulham – 45 points
- Bournemouth – 44 points
It’s tight, but the race for a top five finish is starting to heat up as defeats for Bournemouth (10th), Fulham (9th) and Brighton (8th) were met with wins for Aston Villa (7th), Newcastle (6th), Man City (5th), Chelsea (4th) and Forest (3rd).
With all of that in mind, Opta have released their latest points projections as he head into the run in.
Opta’s projections updated
The statisticians at Opta believe Newcastle United will pip Chelsea to fifth place over the final weeks of the 2024/25 season.
The Blues went back above us in the league last night following a 1-0 win over Spurs, but Enzo Maresca’s side have played a game more – as have Aston Villa – and have a plenty of tricky fixtures left, including trips to Brentford, Newcastle, Forest and Fulham, as well as a home tie with Liverpool next month.
Opta believe they’ll finish sixth on 64 points and one behind us, predicting Aston Villa will end the season in seventh on 60 points.
Here’s Opta’s latest projections as of Friday 4th April…
Based on these projections, Opta are backing us to pick up 15 points from our final nine games, where we have Leicester, Man Utd, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Ipswich, Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton left to play.
Newcastle finishing fifth would almost certainly land Champions League football next season, with UEFA coefficient tables indicating that England will get another slot for next season’s competition if any Premier League side wins a quarter-final tie across the three European tournaments.
Aston Villa are one to watch after a barnstorming 3-0 win at Brighton the night we beat Brentford, although they have struggled to bounce back from European games this season and have a huge quarter-final tie with PSG coming up over the next fortnight.
I think that’s harsh on us – Villa.
We are coming on strong and, for the first time in ages, we have a fully fit squad (other than Barkley). Beat Forest at the weeked – who for the first time really as far as I’m aware have a bit of an injury issue and will be missing Wood and Aina, two of their most important players – and we will be right in the top 5 picture.
We have only lost at home once this season – to Arsenal – and even then we should have won, so I am pretty confident of the home games. I do note that the same was true last year when you guys came to VP but we weren’t as well balanced a side back then – with Tielemans and Luiz in the same team – and we didn’t have anywhere near the attacking options that we now have.
Anyway, I do think it will be an exciting end to the season and I hope we can both push out Citeh and Chelski!!
Barry(Quote)
It would be pleasing to see Forest and villa join Newcastle in the top 5 … all teams getting Chamos league money to invest instead of the cartel
Mike(Quote)