There’s an old saying in football: the only stat that really matters is the final score.

And that’s certainly the case for Newcastle United this season: only eight more stats matter between now and the end of the season, and those are the eight games left of the current Premier League campaign.

But for the real stat lovers out there, Opta have crunched the numbers and shared their projections over the final six weeks of the season, updating their predicted table after our 3-0 win at Leicester on Monday night.

Toon backed for top four

According to football data experts Opta, Newcastle are now projected to finish in 4th place in this season’s Premier League table, qualifying outright for the Champions League!

Based off our scheduled fixtures, which include three games against the ‘Big Six’ as well as tough games away to Aston Villa and Brighton, Opta believes we’ll accumulate 66.17 points based off their simulations and data.

In previous campaigns, 65 has been just enough to secure 5th place in the table for the likes of Spurs and Liverpool to qualify for the Europa League. However, Arsenal’s win over Real Madrid last night has now secured entry into the 2025/26 Champions League for 5th spot this season.

Opta’s predicted top 10

If Newcastle are seen as big winners by Opta’s data, then their biggest losers are no doubt Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea.

Currently sat in 4th place, the Blues are yet to win an away game in the Premier League in 2025, and Opta projects Chelsea will drop to 6th in the table and have to settle on a Europa League spot having spent so long in the top four this season.

Supposedly joining us in the Champions League next season, alongside runaway league leaders Liverpool, as well as Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, is Manchester City who trail fractionally behind on 65.88 expected points.

What would Newcastle need to do now?

With Opta data showing we’d get 13 more points from our final eight league games, just where might those points come from?

On a four game win streak, our squad enter Sunday’s crunch game against Manchester United as the firm favourites to the double over the Red Devils.

And then very winnable home games against Ipswich, the aforementioned Chelsea and Everton on the final day would hypothetically leave Newcastle needing just a point from four games against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Brighton and Arsenal to meet expectations and bring European football back to Tyneside.

Hopefully Opta’s projections come true and we secure a return to UCL football via another top four finish!