When Newcastle United finished 4th in the Premier League in 2022/23 they had the third best away record in the league, accumulating an impressive eight wins and only losing three times on the road.

This changed last season (2023/24) when the division’s fourth best home record was offset by an average season away from St James’ Park. The Magpies were only the eleventh best away team in the league, their 20 points (equal with 15th placed overall Everton) representing 33% of their overall points tally.

Howe’s men won only six times and lost eleven on the road across 2023/24, including an awful run of five away defeats on the spin from November to January, albeit that was at a time when the squad was decimated by injury and fatigue.

Newcastle actually went seven games and four months of 2023/24 without an away victory. The overall away stats were buffered by the anomalous 8-0 victory at Sheffield United in September, but Newcastle still ended on a -4 goal difference.

Look a bit deeper, however, and there were some positive signs in the second half of that season. The Magpies won five of their last nine away games starting with an impressive and unexpected 3-1 win at Villa Park on the last day of January. It coincided with the return from injury of some key players, but Howe had also acknowledged the need to improve the away record.

Toon turnaround on the road

Fixing the away form was clearly identified as a priority for this season (2024/25). It started off well enough with a draw at Bournemouth and a comeback win at Wolves, but by December the away form had suffered from the same inconsistency as the home results. By the time Newcastle’s season reached what has proven to be it’s nadir in a 4-2 reverse at Brentford on December 8, the record was played eight, won two, drawn three, lost three.

The next eight away league games, however, have told a different story. In that period Newcastle have matched their total away wins for the entirety of 2023/24 by winning six.

There were consecutive defeats at Manchester City and Liverpool, but almost in direct contrast to the same festive period of the season before, there were four away wins on the spin with famous victories at Manchester United and Spurs bookended by routs of promoted duo Ipswich and Southampton.

The last two away games have seen professional wins to nil at West Ham and Leicester in games in which Newcastle have not really had to get out of second gear. The Magpies have scored goals at a rate of almost two per game and have only conceded an average of one goal per game (a stat skewed by the 4-0 hammering at the Etihad). There have been four clean sheets in that run compared with only one in the first eight away games of the season.

Like in 2022/23, Newcastle currently boast the third best away record in the Premier League and this time round have a 50% away win record with three games to go. The 27 points accumulated on the road is currently one point more than they have managed at St James’ Park, albeit from two games additional played.

Nine from 11 for Newcastle

Broaden this out a bit more to take all competitions into account and the stats look even more impressive.

Since that Brentford reverse, the Magpies have won nine of eleven games away from St James Park, including the Carabao Cup victory.

From the start of 2024 to now Newcastle have a 59% win rate away from St James’ (when penalty shootout victories are classed as wins). They have won twenty games from thirty-four. It hasn’t always been easy for the hardcore who have followed Newcastle up and down the country for years, but that is value for money and reward for a lot of miles put in.

While looking at stats is one thing, trying to make sense of them is another endeavour entirely. It could be that playing away from home suits Newcastle’s transition game better where there is more onus on the home team to attack.

Perhaps there is less pressure away from St James’ Park, which can become expectant and agitated in games against the league’s lesser lights where Newcastle are favourites to win. Defeats at home to Brighton, West Ham, Bournemouth and Fulham this season certainly point to an issue the Magpies have with a certain level of opponent. Maybe a bit of overall inconsistency is to be expected of a squad which hasn’t been strengthened significantly for two years and still only has the eighth highest wage bill in the league.

Whatever the reasons, if Howe can find a way of continuing this away form and matching it with performances and victories at St James’ Park across the remaining nine games, we will be playing Champions League football again next season, and like 2022/23, it will have been built on a foundation of success on the road.

HWTL!