The key ingredient behind Newcastle United’s resurgence

The last time Newcastle qualified for the Champions League in 2022/23, the season felt like one long magic carpet ride of excitement and momentum.

The Magpies only lost five league games in the entire season and weren’t beaten by any team that finished lower than 7th. There were a joint league high 14 draws, but the 19 wins meant a top 4 finish was assured. The Carabao Cup run was also thrilling up until the final, and even an FA Cup reverse at Sheffield Wednesday wasn’t met with the same catastrophic response that generally accompanies defeats now.

Fast forward to the start of the 2024/25 season and Newcastle were coming off the back of a brutal 2023/24 which had seen an awful injury and fitness crisis in the middle of the season as well as a gruelling Champions League campaign, albeit a 7th placed finish was respectable in the circumstances.

However, none of the 2023 summer signings had really worked out up to that point for various reasons and the summer of 2024 had delivered a sobering reality check of the club’s financial situation. There appeared to be tension behind the scenes between Howe and new Sporting Director Paul Mitchell, and the individual more responsible for the takeover than anybody else, Amanda Staveley, had departed.

This, along with raised expectations, set the scene for an edgy and agitated fanbase less understanding and accepting of poor performances and defeats than two years prior. The Magpies won three and drew one of the first four league games of the season, but performances had not been convincing and a heavy and deserved defeat at Fulham in September set alarm bells ringing and kicked off a run of five games without a win.

Good wins over Arsenal and Nottingham Forest were then offset by a shock home defeat to West Ham and a miserable draw at Crystal Palace, who scored an injury time equaliser in a game in which Newcastle didn’t have a shot on target.

These negative results and performances, which left Newcastle sitting 12th, all led to inquests and there was a growing clamour on social media at least for Howe’s position to be under threat. This reached fever pitch on December 8 when Brentford dismantled the Magpies in what was the season’s low point.

Eddie Howe has proven his doubters wrong plenty of times before, and what has followed since the nadir of Brentford has been a masterclass in one of the key ingredients that successful football teams need – consistency.

Since the Brentford reverse Newcastle sit second in the Premier League form table with 14 wins and just five defeats in 19 games (74% win rate). The 42 points they have accumulated is bettered only by Liverpool’s 47, and their form has propelled them into 3rd place with just four games remaining.

Champions League chasing rivals Nottingham Forest (4th in the form table over that period), Manchester City (5th), Aston Villa (8th) and Chelsea (9th) have all been unable to match this consistency, which is why Howe’s men are now odds on to clinch one of those all important Champions League spots.

This is not to mention the stunning Carabao Cup success, which will automatically ensure the 2024/25 season goes down in history. One of the most pleasing aspects of the form since that glorious day at Wembley has been the way standards have remained high and the celebrations were not allowed to impact on the league form. Nor has Eddie Howe’s illness had any tangible negative impact on results, albeit he may have had some influence at Villa Park.

All in all Newcastle have won 20 of their last 26 fixtures in all competitions since Brentford, which is an incredible 77% win rate. Even when they had some poor results in that run, losing league games at home to Bournemouth and Fulham, and a potentially season derailing FA Cup defeat at home to Brighton, they rallied and won their next game. Just as they did last weekend, swiftly banishing the Villa defeat by dispatching Ipswich. This shows resilience, character and determination, and is the mark of a very good team. Maybe a team with the potential of soon competing for league titles with some more smart recruitment now the PSR shackles have been loosened.

2022/23 was unbelievable as the club basked in the warm and exciting glow of the takeover, but 2024/25 points to something more sustainable given the setbacks along the way. If Newcastle can maintain their consistency for the final four games, Champions League football will once again be assured, and the club will head into the summer of 2025 in the strongest position it has been in decades.

HWTL!