Newcastle United recorded their first win of the Premier League season on Saturday. It was much needed, but performances over the opening four matches have been positive.
Eddie Howe will reflect on the opening matches and feel like his team hasn’t been rewarded with the points they deserve.
The most impressive part to our game has been the defence. Howe has trusted experience in the first few weeks, with four of his back five being older than 30. It has worked though, as Newcastle have had one of the best defences in the league.
Three teams have conceded fewer goals than us, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Nick Pope has kept three clean sheets out of a possible four, which underlines how good we have been without the ball. There have been moments where he has been called into action, but it is the underlying numbers that point to the defensive quality of the team.
Some people raise their eyebrows at expected goals (xG). In football, the stat is here to stay and it does add plenty of value to analysis. Newcastle have the lowest xG conceded in the Premier League with 2.1. Arsenal are the next best with 2.4 conceded and they have regularly been regarded as the best defence in the league in recent seasons.
To put this simply, it means that we have conceded chances of lower quality than the rest of the league. Although it is a small sample size, we have had a tough schedule. We have faced two of last season’s top six, as well as facing a difficult away game against newly promoted Leeds United.
It would be useful to compare the same fixtures from last season to see the defensive improvement. As we didn’t play Leeds, I will remove that game from the comparison. In the corresponding fixtures last season (Villa – A, Liverpool – H and Wolves – H), we conceded 5.7 xG.
This season, we conceded 1.4 xG. That is a stark improvement and underlines the defensive improvement we have shown.
Further to the expected goals data, we are managing to restrict our opposition to a limited number of shots. Our opponents have had a total of 26 shots in the four matches. No team has conceded fewer, with Liverpool the next lowest with 34.
It isn’t just the low number of shots we are conceding that is notable, it is also the quality. We used the xG conceded data above, but when you dig further into the data, it is encouraging. The average xG total of a shot we are conceding is 0.08. Only Arsenal have a lower average with 0.06.
Is there a reason for this improvement?
Due to the sample size, it would be foolish to draw hard conclusions from this data. It is encouraging, but we need to see this performance level over a longer period before getting too excited.
However, we can draw some conclusions from it. The biggest reason for this improvement could be the addition of high-level competition for the defensive places. Kieran Trippier and Tino Livramento have Lewis Hall pushing them for game time. Dan Burn is trying to keep a fit-again Sven Botman out of the team. Meanwhile, signings Aaron Ramsdale and Malick Thiaw have added fresh competition.
Competition is healthy for a squad and we are seeing the benefits in our defensive performance this season.
A more speculative point would be that this could be a tactical change from Howe. In our last European campaign, we suffered from fatigue and an injury crisis. Our style of play is intense and chaotic, which puts a huge physical load on the squad.
Lessons will have been learned from two seasons ago and we need to be more streetwise. Howe may want his team to manage games better and play at a lower intensity, with the knowledge that there are gears to go through if we need them.
Top teams don’t play at full throttle in every match. It would be unwise to and I think Howe learned that the hard way two seasons ago. This tactical switch to be more controlled in our style may have led to a significant defensive improvement.
The great and mighty Eddie improves his skills constantly. There is no doubt whatsoever he is much better than good, he is a simply outstanding manager and I hope he stays here for the rest of his career – he could put up a legacy to compare with the mighty Sir Alex, who is almost incomparable. The two have radically different styles, it ain’t their style, it’s their results I have in mind.
In four years (almost) there are many examples of Eddie’s progress, here’s a simple one:
As we all know, we had been trundling along in the weakest part of the league for years, getting nowhere in cups. Lo and behold, along comes Eddie and we are in a Wembley Cup Final. We were overjoyed and delighted to have made it to Wembley – far above our previous expectations. We played disappointingly and comfortably lost.
Not long after, we got to the same Wembley final again. This time (never mentioned previously)Eddie told us straight – we have achieved nothing getting here, the only thing that counts is winning the thing. We won it.
etc etc
IEWT
davewallace(Quote)
ps I understand completely the success of our defence, above, but must strongly disagree “we have had a tough schedule”. A glance at the table tells us we have had a very very soft schedule – everybody has to play the top clubs, we’ve only played one and that was at home. That is not “tough”!
davewallace(Quote)
I started writing a rebuttal to this garbage then thought, no. I’m old and there must be better things to do with my remaining years.
Let’s just say, when the FA start giving millions of pounds of prize money, and it gets us into the European Championships, maybe then I’ll start taking Xg, and every other completely pointless, entirely subjective stat seriously.
Example.
Shots on target.
We’ve won games when we’ve had just a single shot on target.
We’ve lost games when they’ve had just a single shot on target.
Matches have been won with an own goal with ZERO shots on target.
I realise it’s getting boring but I’d rather listen to someone waffling on about Isak than this ****!
BykerBill(Quote)
We played villa and Liverpool in our first three games both top teams both competitors.. without a natural centre forward .. o am optimistic for the season ahead with the squad we have now
Mike(Quote)
Hi Bill,
While you are correct to say that individual games are won and lost with anomalous stats, over the course of an entire season, these bear fruit.
If a team averages 1 shot per game and another averages 20… who is more likely to score more goals?
I appreciate statistical analysis isn’t for everyone but it doesn’t make it ‘garbage’. It should be used for the purpose it is intended, which is simply that as things stand, we have a top performing defence. If we have an attack to match, then we’ll compete at the top end of the table.
Haz(Quote)
Don’t get this logic at all, as there is clearly a point where you get your rewards for not conceding many shots on target, even if there are SOME games where one shot = one goal.
If Newcastle had conceded 60+ shots this season and several big chances, it would point towards our defence getting away with it a bit.
The fact that it’s the exact opposite has to count for something, suggesting we are protecting Pope’s goal well.
But hey, let’s talk about Isak over Newcastle’s strong defensive numbers? I know you often comment with criticism on this site, Bill, but that’s just odd.
Olly Hawkins(Quote)