Have Newcastle just dodged a bullet?

At a glance: Yes. Jokes aside, it was almost the perfect weekend for whoever suggested Newcastle United sign Nick Woltemade.

The big German scored a lovely header on his debut against Wolves at St James’ Park to banish the memories of a summer spent chasing striker after striker and coming up short. 24 hrs later, many of a Black and White persuasion heartily chuckled as Benjamin Sesko stunk up the pitch in the Manchester Derby.

It’s early days, of course, but have two 90 mins (well 64 and 80) by two different players, so clearly highlighted the difference in the trajectories of their two respective clubs before?

Sesko vs Woltemade

The difference in the two players’ stats over the last 365 days (when compared to the other five big leagues across Europe) is stark. Comparing the two (via fbref) shows just how impressive Woltemade has been over the last year, and how poor Sesko has been:

The granular stats listed above show just what a contrasting year it’s been for the two players; with Woltemade a player on the up and Sesko a player appearing to be on the decline. These stats become even more telling when you consider that Woltemade’s come from just 1766 minutes compared to Sesko’s 2857.

The ‘similar players’ is also enlightening as Sesko compares well against Fabio Silva, Thierno Barry and Cyle Larin; whereas Woltemade compares well to Alexander Isak, Marcus Thuram and Hugo Ekitike…

Is Sesko on the decline already? Probably too early to tell, but what is clear is that we have certainly dodged a bullet stats-wise and how anyone (including our own scouts) could think he was worth €85 million is crazy. Sure, potential costs crazy money in the modern transfer market, but his last year would (on paper at least) call into question whether the Slovenian will ever reach his potential.

Stats aren’t everything

I’ve written before that stats aren’t everything in football and that players have to pass the eye test /vibe test— but Sesko doesn’t even look like he’s a very good player. He has toiled up front for Newton Heath: during his time in Manchester, he has had 13 shots total with just four on target, has looked slow and cumbersome, and hid until the 10th penalty against Grimsby in their delicious League Cup 2nd round exit at the hands of League Two Grimsby.

It was later claimed this was because of cramp, but an €85 million striker claiming cramp is the reason he can’t take a penalty is lubricious. All of these factors combined show just what a poor decision the player has made by choosing to go to Newton Heath for the money. He is clearly working under a manager who probably won’t be there much longer and certainly will not improve his game to the level Eddie Howe would.

Contrastingly, Nick Woltemade needed just 29 minutes to score his first Premier League goal and clearly passed the vibe check as he: dropped deep and nearly assisted a goal for Jacob Murphy, played a lovely ball into Barnes from deep, had a volley blocked from just inside the 18-yard line, and, ultimately, scored the only goal of the game with a superb header.

It seems that, whether it’s statically or just on vibes, Newcastle have got the very best outcome from the summer’s striker tug-of-war with Newton Heath, and long may it continue.