Newcastle United take on Everton on Saturday evening and it is fair to say that goalkeeper has been the position on the fanbase’s mind since Wednesday’s Champions League outing in the south of France.
With Nick Pope dropping another howler of a mistake leading to a goal, Eddie Howe has a huge call to make as to who starts between the sticks: Pope or Aaron Ramsdale.
Eddie was asked about the ‘keeper situation in his Friday morning press conference and whilst backing the under fire ‘number 1’, the gaffer conceded that he “need[s] to think long and hard about who I pick, and I’ll try and do that on merit. I have the luxury of seeing the players train every day, goalkeepers included.”
Stats vs Vibes
The headline stat surrounding Pope is that he’s now made FOUR mistakes leading to goals in his last three away games but dig a little deeper by comparing his goals conceded in all comps (17) to his Post Shot xG faced (18.6) we can see that Pope is still preventing goals accounting for shot quality.
In short, Pope is statistically still preventing us conceding despite the mistakes. For the sake of fairness this is not a stat Ramsdale fairs well in across his last two full seasons playing either: 68 conceded vs 63.5 PSxG – 2024/25, 50 conceded vs 42.9 PSxG – 2022/23.
But, and as Eddie himself admitted this morning, “you don’t necessarily naturally try to rotate a GK, it’s a position of consistency,” so it feels like he knows that if he makes the huge call to bring Ramsdale in at the Hill Dickenson Stadium then it will be all but terminal for Nick Pope’s time as United no.1, as further evidenced by his follow up quote: “changing is something for me to consider, but rotating is not something I want to do.”
Decisions, Decisions
It seems to clear to me that Howe is weighting his options carefully as Nick Pope has been a tremendous signing for United but as “the life of a GK is always on a knife edge” (as Eddie said this morning) many feel that Pope has tipped himself over that edge with the number and high profile of the mistakes he has made lately.
Eddie would do well to remember (which I’m sure he does) that last seasons nine game winning run that turned the campaign around didn’t feature Nick Pope at all, instead Martin Dubravka played and his increased ability with the ball at his feet brought an air of calm and the ability to retain and recycle possession.
It is commonly agreed that Pope is a better shot stopper than Martin Dubravka but that did not impact the side at all during that incredible run last season, a run that was fundamental to United having its best season in living memory.
Long term
Unfortunately, I feel the club has found itself in the position where neither ‘keeper that the debate raging around now is the long-term solution. The aborted/botched James Trafford pursuit of the last two summers shows that there is clear thinking towards evolving the position over the long-term and when that move fell through, United signed the next best short-term analogue in Ramsdale.
But now is not the time for long term thinking, United needs to start winning games on the road before the league season becomes a write off, and Eddie needs to set a precedent that there are consequences for poor performance, and that is why I would make the change.
It’s unfortunate for Pope, who not nine months ago was helping us win our first trophy in a generation, but that’s how the cookie crumbles in football, and Ramsdale has looked decent in the limited outings he’s had this season, so it’s time for the lad to have his shot and see if he can take it.
