Newcastle United travel to Villa Park on Valentine’s Day for a fourth-round FA Cup tie that promises little romance but plenty of edge.
The fixture date of Feb 14 is fitting because there will be no love lost between these two sides, locked in a rivalry that stretches back over 15 years.
It’s a peculiar animosity, one created not by geography or historic clashes but by relegation stakes, banner banter and the kind of grudges that football fans nurse for decades.
Aston Villa are flying in the Premier League, looking on course for a return to the top four and Champions League football. Newcastle’s season has been more complicated, but cup form has been key to their recent success under Eddie Howe.
Another chance to play at Wembley a year on from their League Cup triumph would be a dream for the Toon Army, though their struggles on the road make this a significant challenge.
Speaking to Gambling.com, the expert-led platform covering sports betting and leading UK casinos, one Toon fan was optimistic about the side’s chances. “You know what the FA Cup is like. How good would it be to get to Wembley again? Hearing abide with me, the big days out, that’s want you want in football. That’s what it’s all about.”
The 16/1 odds on Newcastle lifting the trophy feel about right. They’ve shown they can perform in knockout football, especially in the League Cup, but getting through Villa Park will require a level of performance they haven’t managed away from St James’ Park all year.
A Rivalry Restored
When these sides met at St James’ Park earlier this season, Villa strolled to a 2-0 victory that barely flattered them. Goals from Emiliano Buendía and Ollie Watkins punished a lacklustre Newcastle side, potentially suffering from the ring rust of a midweek Champions League win over PSV. It was comfortable for Villa, and the away end made sure Newcastle knew it.
Having required penalties to beat Bournemouth in the third round, the Magpies harbour genuine ambitions of reaching Wembley again.
Villa dispatched Tottenham Hotspur comfortably in early January, showing they’re taking the competition seriously. But Newcastle fans would love nothing more than to get one over on Villa, especially at Villa Park where painful memories linger.
The Aston Villa-Newcastle rivalry is more quirky than classic, but it’s real enough to those who lived through its origins.
It traces back to May 2009, when Villa fans celebrated Newcastle’s relegation with banners and taunts like “Sob on the Tyne,” planting a seed of resentment among Geordies that has never quite been pulled out.
Since then, isolated incidents have kept the tension alive. Newcastle supporters have returned fire when able, creating moments of schadenfreude when Villa have stumbled.
It’s not a rivalry in the traditional sense, but it carries an extra edge fueled by memories and pride.
Fixing Away Form
Newcastle’s struggles on the road could be the difference maker in this tie. Eddie Howe is still learning how to navigate life without Alexander Isak, whose individual brilliance would often bail them out in difficult away fixtures. Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa are still finding their rhythm together, and their profiles are completely different to Isak’s. The wingers need to find ways of creating chances for strikers who offer contrasting strengths.
The Magpies haven’t won away all year, and you’d have to go back to late December for the last time they picked up three points on the road, a hard-fought victory against relegation-threatened Burnley.
That’s a worrying trend heading into a hostile environment like Villa Park, where the home crowd will be up for this from the first whistle.
It’s been over a decade since Villa got to the FA Cup final, but that’s the thing about the FA Cup. It’s gloriously, maddeningly unpredictable.
The cup has a way of levelling things. One moment of quality, one defensive lapse, one contentious refereeing decision can change everything. Newcastle’s away form is poor, but Villa Park on Valentine’s Day has its own peculiar history that could work in their favour.
Villa’s Valentine’s Day Massacres
If ever Newcastle were to win at Villa Park, the strange psychology around Valentine’s Day fixtures gives them a weird fighting chance. Aston Villa’s history around 14th February carries a darker edge that their supporters would rather forget.
The most infamous moment came in 2016, when Liverpool ran riot at Villa Park in a 6-0 drubbing. Goals from six different scorers left supporters reeling in what is still remembered as the “Valentine’s Day Massacre.” It remains one of the lowest points in the club’s recent history, the kind of result that gets seared into collective memory.
While Villa haven’t been consistently poor around mid-February, the pattern of dropped points lingers in the subconscious.
In February 2019, they dropped crucial points to Brentford during their Championship promotion run-in, losing 1-0 on the 13th.
Last season, they could only draw 1-1 at home to newly promoted Ipswich despite having a numerical advantage, a result that frustrated supporters who expected three points.
Football players might claim they don’t think about these things, but stadiums have memories. Newcastle certainly remember, and that anxiety can filter down to the pitch when things aren’t going smoothly.
The Verdict
Newcastle can edge this if they play at their best. Team selection will be crucial, and the decision between starting Woltemade or Wissa could define the match.
The FA Cup’s unpredictability is Newcastle’s greatest asset here. Villa might be the better team on paper and in better league form, but cup football has its own logic. One set piece, one defensive error, one inspired performance from a player trying to make a name for themselves, and suddenly the favourites are on the back foot.
The away form this year is concerning, but this is a different competition with different stakes. The Toon Army will travel in numbers, creating an atmosphere that could unsettle Villa if Newcastle can stay in the game long enough.
It won’t be pretty, and it certainly won’t be easy, but there’s a path to victory here for Newcastle if they’re brave enough to take it.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Newcastle United
