Comparing NUFC’s run-in with our relegation rivals – predicted points totals & our 3 to go down

It is getting to crunch time this season and a win at St.James’ against Huddersfield could move us within touching distance of safety. With our rivals having some tough games this weekend, it’s a huge chance to give us some real daylight in the fight against the drop.

Looking at the graphic below, here’s our verdict on each and every team’s fixtures between 13-20th, assessing how we think they’ll get on in the big relegation run-in.

13th – Newcastle United – (32 pts)

Huddersfield and West Brom are two home games that offer great chances for getting all three points. We also have games away at teams who will have little to play for this time of the season, at Watford, Everton and Leicester. Those five games alone should give us enough scope to get the 6-9 points we likely need. We have free swings against the likes of Spurs, Chelsea and with them coming from a Europa Clash in Russia, the visit of Arsenal will be interesting too. It would be classic Newcastle to beat one of the big boys and stumble in the ‘easier’ games but we have the advantage over our rivals of more points already in the bag and a superior goal difference.

Predicted total – 39 points (7 more)



 

14th – Swansea City – (31 pts)

Swansea have been flying after a change of manager and have momentum on their side. They have some tricky games against the likes of Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea which will be tough, but you get the feeling their trip to West Brom and last two games of the season will define their season. Hosting both Southampton and Stoke will be preverbal six pointers and I think Swansea will have enough to stay up come May.

Predicted total – 38 points (7 more)

 

15th – Huddersfield – (31 pts)

Huddersfield have been on the slide after a great start and they will be looking at the game against NUFC this weekend as key to their survival hopes. One thing is for sure, they will need points in the bag before May as their last three games are Chelsea, Arsenal and City. They won’t want to play those games knowing they need something to stay up. I fear for them and think they could be in deep trouble; providing we do our job and beat them this weekend of course!

Predicted total – 35 points (4 more)

 

16th – Crystal Palace – (30 pts)

Crystal Palace have actually done remarkably well to get into this position considering they lost their first seven games on the bounce. Palace have some quality players like Townsend, Cabaye, Loftus Cheek, Sako, Zaha etc and looking at their fixtures I think there are games there for them to pick up what they need. Home games against Brighton and Leicester will help but ending at home to West Brom is great from them, as WBA will likely already be relegated. I expect Palace to get plenty wins and climb to safety quite comfortably in the end.

Predicted total – 40 pts (10 more)

 

17th – West Ham United – (30 pts)

West Ham have some good players but they remind me a lot of the Newcastle teams who went down in the past; an aging squad past its best on high wages, problems off the pitch and being easy to play against. Moyes is under pressure and playing under fan unrest/pitch invasions isn’t going to help their cause. They have tricky games too, with Arsenal, Chelsea, City and Man.Utd all to play. The key for them is this weekend’s game against Southampton, which is huge. A draw doesn’t help either side and a win would plunge the other into deep trouble. It will be tight for the Hammers.

Predicted total – 37 points (7 more)

 

18th Southampton – (28 pts)

The revolving door of managers continued with Southampton hiring Mark Hughes (a guy not deemed good enough for Stoke who are no better off in the table) to try and get a new managerial bounce like Swansea. It is tough for the Saints as they do have good players, but they looked woeful at SJP and are in huge need of a lift. Game against West Ham, Bournemouth and Swansea hold the key but other than that they have a hard run of fixtures. Tough to predict as they have some good players but no fight. Hughes has a big job on his hands, but I think he’ll just about keep them up.

Predicted total – 36 pts (8 more)

 

19th – Stoke City – (27 pts)

Paul Lambert has not had the desired effect at Stoke – a side who lack firepower and are extremely leaky at the back. An awful mix.  Their run-in looks really tough so it’s hard to see how they get out the mess they are in. Arsenal and Spurs await them next and they also have to go to Anfield. Swansea the last game of the season could be the difference, but I don’t quite know how they’ll stay up given form, awful goal difference and the fact they’re 3 points adrift already. Shaqiri has ability but isn’t consistent enough to single handedly keep them up.

Predicted total – 32 points (5 more)

 

20th – West Brom – (20 pts)

West Brom are surely dead and buried and it is a little amusing as a NUFC seeing Pardew doing so badly. It has been a nightmare for them ever since they hired him – from the taxi gate abroad, one win in fifteen games and now the board saying they don’t have money for wages; they surely are heading down. They even have a tough run in but realistically the only role they will have is when other relegation teams play them, they will be looking to take advantage of WBA’s light and get all three points. I wonder if Pardew will still be in charge to return to SJP…

Predicted total – 24 points (4 more)

 

So, who do we think is going down? Here’s our predicted Premier League table based on the predictions above for each club between now and the end of the season:

13th – Crystal Palace – 40 pts

14th – Newcastle – 39 pts

15th – Swansea – 38 pts

16th – West Ham – 37 pts

17th – Southampton – 36 pts


18th – Huddersfield – 35 pts

19th – Stoke – 32 pts

20th – West Brom – 24 pts


I am sure Newcastle fans would be delighted with this; one thing is for sure with all these teams playing each other is that it’s going to be tight with many twists and turns yet.

After all, it would be typical Newcastle to lose at the weekend and throw us way back into danger.

Who do you think will go down?

(Fancy writing for us? Send any articles/ideas over to us at [email protected] & we’ll get back to you!)

About Simon Riddlesden

Lifelong Newcastle United fan and East Stand season ticket holder. Observations from a supporter who has followed NUFC during Champions League participation and through relegation, taking me from Milan to Scunthorpe.

41 thoughts on “Comparing NUFC’s run-in with our relegation rivals – predicted points totals & our 3 to go down

  1. Thanks for the summary.

    I was just discussing this with Stuart on the last thread and we went for Stoke and WBA as almost certs for the drop. He was thinking Huddersfield and I was thinking Southampton as the remaining team. It is so tight at the bottom anything can happen so I am giving the Saints a reprieve and going with the team I WANT to go down. Of course, that would be West Ham.

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  2. It might not be just points Simon. Goal Difference could be a factor as it is so close that the final spot could be equal. I would be worried on that front if my team still had to play City or Liverpool. Here are the current GDs:

    NUFC -10
    Swans -17
    Hudders -27
    Palace -18
    Wham -21
    S’ton -15
    Stoke -29
    WBA -25

    Apart from their own teams who do the pundits love? Yes, West Ham. I would love it, just love it if they went down after all of the tripe Carra and Neville talked about Rafa not going all out against City 🙂

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  3. I think you are being remarkably generous.
    West ham might get points against Southampton or Stoke but to be honest they will be lucky to get 1 pt. Huddersfield are going to get four points from whom? As for Southampton I think they will beat west ham, but that will be the only points they will get. I can see all three finishing on 31 pts.

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  4. PremAndUp:
    I think you are being remarkably generous.
    West ham might get points against Southampton or Stoke but to be honest they will be lucky to get 1 pt. Huddersfield are going to get four points from whom? As for Southampton I think they will beat west ham, but that will be the only points they will get. I can see all three finishing on 31 pts.

    Huddersfield have us, Brighton, Watford and Everton coming up – if you can’t see them getting 4 points from that lot then they’re definitely down!

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  5. Prem: you are a stat man. Have a look at my post above and you will see a huge disparity in goal difference and yet at the bottom it is about how many you let in. Goals scored for the bottom 8 are remarkably close which is why I think those knackers at Sky didn’t know what they were talking about when they were critcising Rafa. Here are Goals Scored:

    NUFC 30
    Swans 25
    Hudders 25
    Palace 30
    Wham 36
    S’ton 29
    Stoke 29
    WBA 24

    Shows we all have pretty crap attacks.

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  6. We would be safe by now if Lejeune, Dummett and Lascelles were not all out injured together, or at least Lescelles was available.

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  7. If they have Mooy out then we have a good chance against Hudders, he’s been excellent for them.
    They are a team we have struggled against and like Sham I take nothing for granted. This is Newcastle after all and we don’t do easy.

    I don’t have a gripe with the Baggies other than Pards so of all the teams to drop I’m sad they’ll be one of them.
    My dream drop is West Ham, Saints and Swans or Palace but in reality I see it being
    West Brom
    Stoke
    West Ham ( if they don’t sort their shit out ) Saints, if they do

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  8. I have seen the England italy VAR incident and it is a penalty. He shuffles the ball from left foot to right foot away from the defender and as the ball moves away, the England player stands on his foot and takes him down. Bit careless but not malicious, just good footwork from the attacker.

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  9. I think we’ll be too strong for Huddersfield especially if we play like the last 2 home games. The return of Lejeune, additions of Dubravka and Kenedy together with the resurgent Diame has made us a much much stronger team. However the last game shouldn’t be a bench mark as Southampton were the weakest team we’ve played all season. 3 to go? WBA, Stoke, Southampton.

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  10. It is likely that the 7th place team will get Europa League qualification. It is currently a three horse race between Burnley, Leicester & Everton. These teams will not be on their holidays and an easy touch.

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  11. Because Manchester City have already guaranteed their Champions League place, their Europa League place as EFL Cup winners reverts to the league, so the sixth-placed team will also enter the Europa League.

    If the FA Cup is won by a team in the top six (and three of the four semi-finalists currently occupy top-six spots), the seventh-placed team will enter the Europa League. FA Cup runners-up are no longer eligible to enter Europe by virtue of being losing finalists.

    from the BBC

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  12. kimtoon:
    If they have Mooy out then we have a good chance against Hudders, he’s been excellent for them.
    They are a team we have struggled against and like Sham I take nothing for granted. This is Newcastle after all and we don’t do easy.

    I don’t have a gripe with the Baggies other than Pards so of all the teams to drop I’m sad they’ll be one of them.
    My dream drop is West Ham, Saints and Swans or Palace but in reality I see it being
    West Brom
    Stoke
    West Ham ( if they don’t sort their shit out ) Saints, if they do

    He’s fit to play mate

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  13. The Mirror have done a relegation predictor and have West Ham, West Brom and NUFC to go down. I don’t know if they have watched any of our recent games but we beat Man U, lost to the form team in the league (Liverpool), should have had Bournemouth wrapped up and still drew, and battered Southampton.

    I don’t know what algorithm their predictor used but my guess is a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at the fixtures and seeing if it hits win, lose or draw.

    We were 10-1 to go down last time I looked so even as a wary NUFC fan I am still optimistic this time around.

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  14. My blindfolded monkey theory gives The Mirror too much credit. It is probably for clicks. The 2 biggest teams in the relegation battle are NUFC and West Ham so lets predict they will go down and rile their fans and generate clicks!!!!

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  15. What usually happens in relegation battles is that a couple of teams hit form and pull away and a few sink like a stone. We have only lost away at Man City and Liverpool this year and Swans have done well with their new Manager. Southampton, Stoke and Huddersfield are on bad runs.

    Momentum means a lot in football. I just can’t see us losing against Huddersfield but like Kimtoon and Shamrock I am still worried because everybody is assuming a win and we are NUFC. Bookies have Huddersfield at 4-1 for a win.

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  16. To help The Mirror out, lets throw another variable into the equation. Manager.

    NUFC – double La Liga winner and Champions League winner. Could not prevent NUFC relegation last time though.

    Palace – Mr. Roy is vastly experienced and is not the only one where the England and Liverpool jobs were too big for them.

    Swans – wasn’t Gracia sacked by one of the Sheffield teams?

    West Ham – sacked in Spain, relegated Mackems

    Southampton – Hughes sacked by Stoke, may relegate 2 teams in 1 season

    Huddersfield – Warner looks competent but has no PL experience

    Stoke – Lambert. Always fighting relegation with the teams he has managed.

    West Brom – Harvard Business School had Sir Alex over to do lectures on Management a couple of years ago and integrated it into their curriculum. The opposite will happen with Pards and Ugly John. There will be books written in years to come and classes taught to show students how NOT to manage.

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  17. I hate to be this optimistic but all of the metrics points to our survival:

    Manager
    Form
    Goal Difference
    Goals Scored
    Fixtures

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  18. This weekend could break the Mackems. They are away at Derby who are looking to consolidate a playoff spot.

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  19. icedog:
    shows how good our PL refs are not one has been chosen for the world cup

    not surprised by that, they are all pretty useless.

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  20. This site is becoming increasingly difficult to read because of all of the pop-ups, banner ads, links etc. There becomes a point where it is not worth it. Where I am closing pop-ups and banners more than reading the articles.

    I don’t know if it the site admin or google or whatever but it is getting worse.

    I do have an ad-blocker (adblocker plus) but it seems not to be working well. Anybody know of a better one?

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  21. I mean the ads are everywhere. On the side, embedded in the articles, banners at the top and bottom. And stupid links which I think might be google but the site admin can surely block access.

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  22. Eric Sykes:
    I mean the ads are everywhere. On the side, embedded in the articles, banners at the top and bottom. And stupid links which I think might be google but the site admin can surely block access.

    I’ve passed this on to Andy mate. Cheers

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  23. ACTUALLY IT IS PROBABLY NOT THESE GUYS’ FAULT as I cannot see anything that they would have to gain from most of the ads. It is probably google and amazon. If anybody has a better adblocker please let me know.

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  24. Olly Hawkins: I’ve passed this on to Andy mate. Cheers

    Sorry Olly, I think it is not you. I think the advertisers have found away around the adblocker from Microsoft. Any advice from Andy would be appreciated though.

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  25. I take that back. I checked other sites I visit and there are a few ads but nothing like here. I clicked on this article and between ads and sponsored content there were 25 links. I clicked on an Ed Harrisson article and there were 2. It is not just Microsoft or a failed article it is this site.

    If you are not getting paid for these links then they are freeloading and it spoils the experience somewhat as most are absolute rubbish and have nothing to to with anything I am interested in. The “sponsored content” just seems random.

    I don’t know if anyone else is having the same experience.

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  26. Eric, I have always had problems since Toonsy sold up, on match days it’s mentally slow to load. pointless trying to celebrate a goal with fellow bloggers as it either freezes or takes yonks to post your comment. It’s not like traffic is high on match threads like the old days when you got 400 plus post on one thread, it has to be the ads to blame.

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  27. my worry about this game on sat is the same as every game this season who! is going to score we have no threat up top 🙁

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  28. How come all of the pundits question Shelvey’s attitude and let things go with Dele Alli who is just as mouthy but dives and is at least as dirty as Jonjo. The difference is that he plays for Spurs and the Refs don’t call it. Same as when Saint Harry tried to break Lejeune’s leg.

    I have seen the pundits say Shelvey is not called up for England because he is a loose cannon and then in the next breath say that if you take the edge from Alli’s game he wouldn’t be the same player. Double standards.

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  29. PremAndUp:
    I use adblock plus, and have no probs with this site

    Cheers Prem. I had it and then suddenly it stopped working. Tried to reinstall but there are still problems. I will try again. I know the ads are not from this site and they are not getting paid because they are for stuff like Chicago Cubs tickets. I wouldn’t mind the ads if Andy and Olly were getting paid for them.

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