The season is fast approaching and season previews are starting to be released. It is becoming common to see us being talked about as contenders for European football. The bookmakers have us priced up as the likely 7th placed finishers.
Our form in 2022 has been great. It is normal to see a team that finishes one campaign strongly take their momentum into the following season. The most famous example is Leicester City in the 2015/16 season. They performed a great escape in 2015 before winning the Premier League in 2016.
That is an extreme example and it is never likely to be repeated. I am not writing this piece to suggest we could win the Premier League, like the Foxes. We are a long way from achieving that particular aim of the ownership group.
Rather, I am writing this to advise caution ahead of the coming season. Our 2022 form has us placed 4th in the form table this calendar year, but the underlying metrics suggest we overperformed during this period and our performances don’t support the results that were achieved.
| Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) | Expected Points (xPTS) |
| 23.7 (15th) | 24.8 (14th) | 27.33 (10th) |
For most of this period, we were spoken about as one of the in-form teams in the division and our results were reflecting that. However, if we dig deeper into the metrics, some concerning stats appear, shown in the above table.
Our attack only managed to rank as the 15th best in the division, while our defence ranked as the 14th best. These are a long way from the European places. The fact that our expected points have us ranked in the top ten suggest that our underlying numbers were hurt by matches against the top six. Liverpool and Manchester City did thoroughly outplay us and that had an impact, especially on our xGC.
There is nuance to this discussion. The injuries to Kieran Trippier and Callum Wilson were hugely damaging. Meanwhile, Bruno Guimaraes didn’t fully settle into the team until the final weeks. A team with all three fit and firing would likely have improved underlying numbers.
Further to the absences, there was caution in the way Eddie Howe set the team up. There was a clear idea to score and try to defend the lead, as relegation was a big threat. The team couldn’t be as open as the manager may have liked.
Game state can have a big influence on the numbers discussed above. The matches against Aston Villa, Southampton and Brighton were just three matches that come to mind. Towards the latter stages, the opposition had a lot more of the territory and chance creation, but this was by design, rather than a result of poor play.
The additions of Nick Pope and Sven Botman should help improve the defensive numbers. Pope is a dominant keeper who likes to sweep in his defensive third. This should lead to a higher line and fewer chances being created against us. He is also excellent in the air, which should help with set piece situations. This has previously been a weakness.
Botman is considered one of the best defensive talents in Europe. It may take him time to settle, but he should improve our defence. Both players coming into the team should reduce the xGC.
The biggest issue is our attack, but that is well established and everyone knows it is a problem. We need to create more chances and take more shots. Howe has said that he is working on this in Portugal, but a couple of additions are needed before the transfer window closes. Outside of Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson, the quality is limited.
Our fourth place in the 2022 form table is probably not sustainable. If we want to be challenging for European places, we need improvement at the back and in attack.
No team overperformed their xPTS more than we did, with an overachievement of 10.67. It could be that some unquantifiables are responsible for this and it is sustainable, but it is more likely that there will be some regression.
That is unless performances improve. The signings made defensively suggest that our defensive metrics will. There could also be a slight upturn in attacking numbers with the return of Callum Wilson and a fully integrated Bruno Guimaraes.
However, we will need further improvements in personnel and on the training ground if we are to maintain the excellent 2022 form.
What are the underlying calculations that derive these ‘expected goals’ scored and conceded. Is the opinion of a drunken pundit or past form of players? Surely what is important is goals actually scored and conceded. Can that be maintained given the missing players from last season, and any new additions? Whilst I am not suggesting that fourth is to be expected, it should not be dismissed as we have already demonstrated the reality of that achievement for the year to date. I am expecting that we will qualify for the Europa cup this season and not the micky mouse under league.
PremAndUp(Quote)
I think that all this article manages to do is to prove how ridiculously worthless modern “stats” are.
Daveys **** mate(Quote)