Seven matches have now been played this season. It hasn’t been a bad start from Newcastle. After all, we have only lost once in the Premier League and that defeat came in the dying minutes at Anfield. It can be argued that the final whistle should have gone minutes before the home side found the winning goal.
However, there has been some disappointment on social media, as the club have won just once and are in 10th position, with other sides having games to play below us. It feels like we have left points on the field, which is frustrating. Nobody will be more frustrated than Eddie Howe.
A combination of poor finishing, bad luck, injuries and dodgy VAR decisions have cost us. It is more complex than feeling sorry for ourselves. Although we have had some bad variance, there have been errors made by players and the manager. Everyone will still be learning. It is early in the project and sometimes that does get forgotten.
The international break provides a good opportunity to take stock of our performances to date.
To start this off, let’s begin with Eddie Howe’s recent comments to the Athletic, as they tell us a lot about his personal aims for the season.
“If you look at our points tally last season, it ended up OK from where we were, but our general performance-markers and the key stats you look at – possession, shots, shots conceded – were quite low. We won a lot of games towards the end, but we weren’t the dominant team a lot of the time. I don’t think you can sustain that.’
| Howe 2021/22 (pre-Jan) | Howe 2021/22 (Jan onwards) | |
| Goals | 0.88 | 1.32 |
| Conceded | 2.25 | 1.05 |
| Points | 0.75 | 2 |
| xG | 0.84 | 1.19 |
| xGA | 1.76 | 1.09 |
| Shots | 11.4 | 12.3 |
| Shots against | 15.1 | 12.3 |
| Possession | 38.25 | 42.3 |
Stats taken from fbref (powered by Statsbomb)
The above table shows a comparison of the development under Eddie Howe. The first column shows the performance-markers from his first period in charge prior to the January transfer window. The second column shows the same stats from the 2021/22 season from January 1st onwards,while the final column shows them for the current campaign.
It is easy to see what Howe means about the second half of last season. The results were excellent, as two points per game will generally get you in the top four. However, the underlying numbers don’t back up that form. Teams that finish in the top four will usually out-shoot their opposition and create a lot more quality chances, while keeping those they concede to lower quality.
We can see that we created a slightly better quality of chance than we conceded, with our xG created per game being 1.19, while our xG conceded was 1.09. The progress was there from his first period in charge, but the numbers don’t quite match our form.
That is evident in the shots and shots against, as he had as many shots as we conceded. This suggests we were a little bit fortunate to be producing Champions League qualifying results.
The average possession of 42.3% also shows that we looked to play on the counter attack and we weren’t confident to dominate matches. The team conceded possession and looked to exploit the space with quick vertical attacks.
There was progression from his first period in charge prior to the transfer window, but it is easy to see why Howe wasn’t pleased with what he saw under the hood. Results were great, but they weren’t sustainable for a whole campaign.
Unfortunately for Howe, the run of results after the January transfer window have lifted expectations. Some fans spoke about Europe as a possible aim and nobody could blame them. Football is a results game and we were getting them regularly.
Stats can be written off by some, but the ones listed above are excellent predictive indicators of what will happen in future months. Howe is clearly a believer in them and his aim over pre-season was to improve them, to increase the chance of us maintaining our form.
| Howe 2021/22 (Jan onwards) | 2022/23 | |
| Goals | 1.32 | 1.14 |
| Conceded | 1.05 | 1 |
| Points | 2 | 1.14 |
| xG | 1.19 | 1.62 |
| xGA | 1.09 | 1.17 |
| Shots | 12.3 | 15.4 |
| Shots against | 12.3 | 14.57 |
| Possession | 42.3 | 50.4 |
Stats taken from fbref (powered by Statsbomb)
Howe went on to say to the Athletic:
“If that’s your style then eventually you’ll stop winning and you’ve got a big problem. So we’re trying to change. It’s got to be gradual, but we’re trying to implement a style where we’re progressive and dominant and going home and away to attack the game. That’s going to be my biggest marker in terms of how we improve rather than points.”
It isn’t easy to change a club’s style. Howe held back from changing too much last season, due to the lack of time to work with the players. However, it is clear that a lot of coaching has gone into our style of play over pre-season.
The numbers above show that the work on the training ground are showing on the pitch. We have increased our xG and shots per game by more than 33%. That is a big increase and although we are scoring fewer goals, that will change if we continue to create chances at this rate.
Although it is disappointing to see our xG and shots conceded increase, that is likely due to the strength of opposition. The left column features a larger sample size, while this season, the numbers include matches against Brighton, Liverpool and Manchester City. We should see our defensive metrics improve in the coming weeks.
Despite these difficult matches, we have seen our average possession increase to more than 50%. That is a notable takeaway and underlines the type of team we are becoming under Howe.
We haven’t been a team that dominated possession in a long time. Even the great teams of the past were quick, vertical attacking teams. Very few Newcastle teams have been dominant in possession, but that is what Howe is trying to implement.
The numbers from the start of the season are encouraging and suggest we should have more points than we do. It is good to improve our underlying numbers, but they aren’t a guarantee of success. We have seen that this season.
Rather, they increase your chances of winning matches and stack the deck in your favour. As football is a low margin game, you can still draw or lose matches that you deserve to win. However, over time, you should win more than you lose if you create better chances than your opponent and have more of the ball.
That is what Howe is talking about when he discusses our playing style above.
The start of the season has been frustrating based on results, but we should all be encouraged by our playing style and performances. There will be growing pains, as we become a more dominant, front-foot team. It may take longer than we would like to implement, but once we fully adapt, we will benefit from the work.
It is too early to panic. In fact, the excitement levels should remain, as we are a much better team than we were a year ago and those improvements will only continue.
