Using data to find Newcastle’s next winger – Five exciting options for Eddie Howe

For a while, a new wide forward has seemed like a priority at NUFC, however it’s not a position which has been addressed yet under the new ownership. Going into this season, Allan Saint-Maximin had his left-wing spot nailed down, while Murphy, Almiron and Fraser were set to compete for the spot on the right.

The general consensus was that none of those three were good enough to be starting every week, which made it slightly puzzling as to why no right winger was signed in the summer window.

However, a lot has changed since then. Allan Saint-Maximin has looked sharp when he’s appeared, but injuries have limited his involvement this season, while Miguel Almirón looks like a man reborn. He’s currently our top-scorer, putting in fine displays on a regular basis – and slowly dispelling many of his critics.

Despite this, we still need to improve our depth and quality in this part of the pitch. Almirón is our only left-footed forward, and with Howe favouring ‘inverted wingers’, it feels like Almirón needs some competition on that right flank. 

In our current system, Almirón plays as a conventional right winger out of possession, but drifts into more narrow areas in sustained periods possession, with Trippier overlapping. Hence, the loose profile of player we need is someone who can be an outlet in wide areas in counter attacks, while also having the ability to create and score in the right half-space. As a result, being left-footed is desirable due to it opening it up better angles to do these things, in a similar way to Almirón.

The formalise this criteria, we can list the desired qualities as follows:

• Creative threat
• Sound and progressive ball-carrier
• Goal threat, both in finding and taking chances
• Work rate off the ball
• Suitable age profile (U27)

And preferably:

• Left-footed
• Able to play on either flank

To find potential options, I compiled the data of all forwards and attacking midfielders in Europe’s Top 7 Leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Serie A, Bundesliga, Eredivisie and Primeira Liga) between now and the start of the 2020/21 season. Using this, I was able to create a score for ‘creativity’, ‘ball-carrying’ and ‘goalscoring’ for each player by weighting their percentile performance across a set of metrics, and thus was able to find an overall score. The weightings towards the scores, and the metrics selected are illustrated as below.

The top 30 players according to this ‘overall’ score, were ranked as follows.

The man in first place perhaps doesn’t come at a surprise, and it’s a pretty star-studded list. Obviously though, a lot of these won’t be particularly attainable, so I’ve filtered it down to only players who are under 27, and would be vaguely realistic signings.

Thus, my five most preferable options using a mix of data and some ‘eye test’, are as follows:

Marcus Edwards

Edwards is part of a growing breed of Englishmen who are forging promising careers abroad after not receiving adequate guidance or opportunities at home. Once likened to Lionel Messi by Mauricio Pochettino, Edwards’ development really blossomed after joining Portuguese side Vitoria Guimaraes, which led to a €7m move to Sporting Lisbon.

Edwards is versatile forward who can operate anywhere across the front three, but looks at his most dangerous on the right. It allows him to pick up the ball on the flank or in the half-space, where he can drive towards goal and carve out shooting opportunities on his favoured left foot. His excellent close control and low centre of gravity facilitate that, and has ultimately led to a string of impressive performances for Sporting Lisbon which has sparked talk of a move back to the Premier League. 

The one drawback with Edwards is his work rate – he’s not the most energetic player out of possession, although I always believe that this is an area where any player can improve if given the right coaching and guidance. 

Nicolás González

Nicolás González is a great fit for us in that right-sided spot, but his versatility makes him even more desirable. After becoming one of the main men at VFB Stuttgart, the Argentine earned a €25m move to Fiorentina, and became a regular for his national team – and missed out on becoming a World Cup winner through injury.

González plays regularly on either side of Fiorentina’s front three – which is ideal given the need for cover on both flanks, and even had regular minutes as a forward in a 3-5-2 for Stuttgart. Given Wood’s departure, that could be a useful quality to have. 

Strong in tight spaces, and able to beat players on either flank – González is a player who exudes confidence. He always looks to be positive with the ball, and trusts the quality of his dribbling and ball-striking. The Argentine also has pretty good poacher’s instincts, and is surprisingly strong in the air too, especially at flicking headers from the near post.

Tetê

Tete finds himself in an interesting position this month – he’s contracted to Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk, and is currently on loan at Olympique Lyon, with the deal expiring in the summer. With the tragic situation in Ukraine, players have a special dispensation to go elsewhere. Hence, there’s not much preventing Tete from finding a new club in the near future if the demand is there, and if the player is keen.

Since his arrival in France, has picked up a mighty impressive 15 goals and assists in 18.7 90s, while also being an incredibly entertaining presence. Full of Brazilian flair, Tete is a direct dribbler who loves taking players on in wide and central areas. Tete has a good appreciation of what’s around him, and has extremely strong close control – which given the nature of our right winger to drift into central areas – is a very useful trait to have.

Another really positive sign with Tete is that his movement is improving significantly. To put it simply, he’s starting to score more back post tap-ins, which is a good indication of his positioning and attacking awareness.

Mohammed Kudus

Not only is Kudus extremely talented, but he’s a unique prospect too. Naturally a central midfielder, the 22 year-old Ghanaian has a really varied skillset – and it’s reflected in the amount of positions he’s played. Number 8 in a 4-3-3 or a number 10 in his earlier days, currently playing as a centre-forward for Ajax, and playing as a right winger at the World Cup. These experiences have clearly made him a more mature footballer, and have help to create a more rounded player.

All the core desirable qualities are there with Kudus. He’s very strong technically, able to dribble himself out of trouble, and retains the ball pretty well. His final ball is pretty good too, and has the ability to strike the ball cleanly on a consistent basis. 

However, perhaps the thing I like most about Kudus is his movement. It’s a theme with most of these players, but I think it’s a huge factor for NUFC’s right winger, and has played a big part in Almirón’s success.

He times his runs towards the edge of the box well, as well as towards the back post, and just seems to have that knack of getting on the end of chances. It’s a quality which is so important, and it’s rare to see such a young player possess it already.

Much like Madueke though, injuries have been an issue. Although less worryingly, most of them seem to be one-offs. The other slight weakness is his decision-making. Sometimes he’ll try to take on one too many players resulting in a loss of possession despite a better option being available. 

Moussa Diaby

It feels like the boring choice (and it is), but Diaby does tick a lot of boxes for us. It’s no surprise how keen we are on him given how well he fits our system. Diary amassed an incredible 25 goals and assists in 32 Bundesliga appearances last season, leading to more international caps, and a lot of links to top sides around Europe.

What I love most about Diaby is that he’s incredibly dangerous in transitions (an area where NUFC excel), but also has the quality to break down defences when there’s less space to work with. His powerful and aggressive runs into space, matched with his pace, make him one of the world’s best counter-attacking exponents. 

His decision-making is what makes him stand out from the rest of the options here. He knows when to come alive, when to time his actions, and his pass selection in the final third is the main reason why he’s picking up so many goal contributions.

He’s also spent a lot of time on the left flank, which makes him a more adequate option on that flank should he be required.

There’s no doubt that Diaby will cost a lot, probably over the £50m mark, but the upside here is seriously high. He’d be an almost guaranteed success.