The battle for Champions League football is heating up, but our push for a top-four finish remains firmly in Newcastle United’s hands.
Liverpool’s streak of six straight wins – combined with our 2-0 defeat to Arsenal on Sunday – has left them just three points behind us. However, we have a game in hand and should remain confident of fending off their late surge.
With the Reds on 62 points with three games to go, they maximum tally they can reach is 71; which would requires wins in remaining games against Leicester (A), Aston Villa (H) and Southampton (A).
Newcastle currently sit on 65 points, meaning six points from our remaining four games – Leeds (A), Brighton (H), Leicester (H), Chelsea (A) – would see us also reach the 71 point mark.
It would then come down to goal difference, where we (+32) currently have a seven-goal lead over Liverpool (+25), although that would change in their favour if three wins for Klopp’s men was followed by two wins and two defeats for Eddie Howe’s Mags. As a result, seven points will GUARANTEE a top-four finish for Newcastle, but six could well be enough.
Brighton have been contenders, as the Seagulls have played one game less, but their 5-1 defeat to Everton last night leaves them to reach more than 70 points. With their hectic schedule in mind – where they still have to face Arsenal, Newcastle, Man City and Aston Villa – I think it’s fair to discount them from the equation.
It’s also worth considering Man Utd. They have a kind run in, with Wolves, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Fulham to come, but our two-point lead and far superior goal difference means they can’t finish above us if we pick up 10 points or more from our final four fixtures.
As the graph shows below, 72 points will guarantee a top-four finish for Newcastle, while 71 could be enough if there isn’t a big swing in goal difference over the final three weeks of the season:
