After the massive achievement of the top 4 last season, everyone on Tyne-side was hoping for a kind draw. Maybe one big name to expose the squad to those massive European nights, a good side to battle for second place with of similar stature, and the 4th place whipping boys like Sheriff Tiraspol to give the lads some confidence.
Unfortunately, things didn’t quite go that way…
Fat forward to the draw and Newcastle were shacked up with the second most successful club in the history of the competition, AC Milan. The second-best team in Germany for the last 20 years and of course PSG.
A tantalising group for the neutral, but a gut-wrenching draw for any of the four teams’ supporters.
But after a mixed bag of results, where Howe’s men gave a great account of themselves in that 0-0 draw at the San Siro, before a glorious performance against PSG, Newcastle are well in contention to progress further.
Even in that loss to Dortmund, The Magpies were well in the game and in a group that many expected to be a step too far, are just as likely to progress as Dortmund according to bookies.
In fact, Betiton Ireland has Newcastle as very slight favourites in the upcoming return fixture. Despite having to travel to Germany, the odds of victory for the toon army err in The Magpie’s favour, admittedly by a very slight differential.
The match itself is loaded with importance. A draw would see the lay of the land for progression look much the same, save for a shock Milan victory over PSG that could tee up an unprecedented final day where all 4 sides could finish in or outside the top 2.
Even 3rd place would be a huge achievement, considering just 5 years ago Rafa Benitez had steered Newcastle back to the Premier League, and just under 2 years ago, Eddie Howe was faced with the task of turning fortunes around and taking them away from a relegation battle.
To be in the Europa League, with a serious chance of winning the whole thing would be more than enough for most fans.
But there is a very real possibility Newcastle can escape this group, at this point progression could be any of the four sides, but we won’t have a full picture until after the Dortmund game.
While 4th place in any other circumstances would be a failure.
To be as competitive as they have been against three stalwarts of The Champions League is an achievement in itself, conceding just twice in 3 games.
A point against Dortmund would be good enough if PSG can win in Milan, the best case at the moment would be PSG running away with first, and taking Milan out of 3rd or 2nd place contention.
However a win could see Newcastle rise to first, the PSG task of beating Milan at the San Siro by no means an easy one.
In truth, it seems too tight to call, but if Newcastle can earn 4 points across the final 3 matches, I’d back them to finish second.
If Milan loses to PSG, and Newcastle draw to Dortmund tomorrow, then losing to PSG away wouldn’t be the end of the world.
But it would leave Newcastle hoping for Milan victory in Dortmund, to leave a final game where Newcastle control their destiny. Were results to go that way, a Newcastle win, would secure 2nd no matter what, while a draw would rely on PSG not losing.
If it is to go that way, the round of Group F will be a blockbuster spectacle, each goal potentially flipping the group on its head.
