After a potentially season-defining win over Chelsea at the weekend, Newcastle United find themselves within touching distance of the Champions League once again.
Two games and three points are very likely all that stands between us and qualifying for next season’s competition, but they are still two more ‘cup finals’ for the team to tackle.
After our 2-0 win over Chelsea on Sunday was followed by Nottingham Forest’s 2-2 draw with Leicester, the latest figures have revealed just how likely it is for us to secure ourselves a spot in Europe’s top competition…
Newcastle’s likelihood of UCL football revealed
After the latest round of Premier League fixtures, stat and data experts Opta currently project that we’ll finish 3rd in this year’s Premier League, with a 93.91% chance of qualifying for the Champions League as things stand.
Based on their latest projections following a weekend of twists and turns, joining us in next year’s competition alongside Champions Liverpool are Arsenal (2nd) Manchester City (4th) and Aston Villa (5th), who are being backed to edge Chelsea out.
Currently sat on 66 points, Opta predicts we will finish on 68.86 points (the average from their algorithm and hundreds of simulations), which hint that we will win one of our two final games against Arsenal and Everton, and lose the other.
See Opta’s projected standings below:
In reality, 69 points will almost certainly guarantee we progress, considering it would then take a 14 goal swing in the goal difference between ourselves and Aston Villa for Unai Emery’s side to overtake us should we finish level on points.
The last time we qualified for the Champions League, back in the 2022/23 season, it took us 71 points to finish in 4th place, showing that whilst the threshold to qualify is ever-so-slightly lower this season, the competition is far more intense.
A push for 2nd place?
Jason Tindall said a few weeks ago that the club’s aim was always to finish as high as possible in the table.
And with Liverpool confirmed as Champions, it looks like we may have a battle for 2nd place on our hands, as unlikely as that seemed after that Brentford game and prior to that Carabao Cup win.
The first result on a potential path to 2nd place is by beating Arsenal at the Emirates, something we have already done this season in the Carabao Cup of course.
But from there we would need to either win or better Mikel Arteta’s side’s result on the final day, as we host Everton whilst they travel to St Mary’s to play already-relegated Southampton.
But before we can start daydreaming about 2nd place and the slight boost in merit money that would bring, we need to focus on finishing at least 5th.
The numbers are in our favour for at least one win, the sooner we earn it, the more relaxed we can knowing we’ve avoided some final day drama against an Everton side who could be out to spoil the party.
A 14 goal swing doesn’t sound as ridiculous when you consider Villa only have to play those two walking car wreck clown shows Spurs and Man Utd
A(Quote)
We need to beat Arsenal as our last game is at home to Everton. That worries me slightly as we have managed to lose at home to Fulham, Bournemouth, Brighton and West Ham. On current form, whilst we a good, Everton aren’t far off form wise pretty much the same as those four.
Bob(Quote)
Well l didnt need a computer to predict exactly what was said there.
Peter Henderson.(Quote)