As the new season draws ever closer, there has been a lot of pre-season predictions and comment on what Newcastle can or will achieve next year. As always, the media enjoy commenting on NUFC and we of course still need more new signings through the door. A large fan base and having a manager of Rafa’s stature naturally leads to higher expectations than a ‘typical’ newly promoted side. So where can we finish next year?
What does Rafa expect?
Rafa wants quality signings, like we all do. Merino arriving seems to have appeased things slightly but he knows we need further enforcements, particularly in attacking areas, to not be in a dog fight come spring. Rafa himself said recently of aims for the new season:
“If we are trying to avoid relegation we have to make sure we are stronger, then maybe we can go higher and higher.”
Rafa likes to keep expectations grounded and his view that avoiding relegation this year, with a view to then making further strides up in the table in coming season, would be echoed by most.
What do the bookmakers make of Newcastle?
Many bookies have released their title odds, which effectively is them predicting how the final table will finish. Newcastle are amazingly 10th favourite to win the title in May; suggesting bookmakers think we will sneak in the top half. This seems a little ambitious but with some quality signings and some good luck it could happen. After all, there is not a wealth of quality sides in the bottom half of the table.
Interestingly though, Bentiez is also the favourite manager to leave his post first from the twenty current top flight managers. A lot of that will be due to press speculation over transfers, the past actions of Mike Ashley and the fact of how much of a coup it was to get Rafa on board in the first place.
Pundits views on NUFC
Harry Redknapp has again surfaced after taking the full time managers role at Birmingham City and made the news last week by tipping Newcastle as one of seven sides to struggle. He claims we have not singed enough quality players to move away from the relegation bracket and he arguably has a point. We need a lot of investment still but even as it stands, you hope we have more quality than the likes of Brighton and Huddersfield.
Paul Merson has also waded in on Newcastle too this summer, claiming we are a big club but that he doesn’t think Bentiez would stay for the long term. Pundits who aren’t linked with the club feeling the need to comment on NUFC just confirms that we will always be a good story; let’s hope we can enjoy a solid season and avoid the usual press soap operas like we have in the past.
Where do Newcastle fans expect to finish?
This is an interesting one. The Chronicle punished a survey over the weekend and the average position Newcastle fans (in the survey) expect us to finish was actually 14th. This reflects the fact we are newly promoted, have not invested as hoped yet but do have a quality manager to see us through. 50,000 plus at home games will also hopefully earn us a few crucial home wins.
What are you expecting next season; where will we finish?
There were only 6 points between 8th and 17th last year We could finish in any of these positions. Huddersfield, Brighton and Swansea for relegation.
Somehow, someway we will get a striker. We have to.
Paul Merson’s giant balloon head should STFU.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Simon, thanks.
as it stands I see us struggling a bit, desperately need more goals in this team to survive in my humble opinion. Club are having a massive gamble if they fail to land a quality striker, every team needs a star player and ours should be our forward as was traditional.
kimtoon(Quote)
Do McClaren, Pardew and Ugly John have jobs yet? Cathro sacked as well. And Carr gone, never to be seen again. Forced Keegan out of football and Big Al back to the pundit’s chair.
Ashley cannot afford to fck this one up and if Rafa needs a bit of extra cash then he should give it to him. The alternative does not bear thinking about – lose 5-0 at home to Celtics reserves and have Simon Grayson as manager would be the end result of losing Rafa.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Perez gent says toon have not made contact with them
icedog(Quote)
No surprise there really Ice. I suspect if we do bring in a striker and right now that’s a big if, it’ll be someone completely unexpected. My guess would be the invisible man .
kimtoon(Quote)
Moyes is available.
It is amazing how far that man’s stock has fallen.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
LOL
Icedog(Quote)
Only 3 more days until Mackems kick off.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
out of interest, as it stands
Transfers Summer 2017
Player
Fee
Club
INCOMING
Christian Atsu £6.2M Chelsea
Florian Lejeune £8.8M Eibar
Jacob Murphy £10M Norwich
Javier Manquillo £4.5M Atletico Madrid
Mikel Merino Loan – season
Option to buy £6M
Pending Borussia Dortmund
Transfer Fees In £29.5M
OUTGOING
Vurnon Anita Released Aston Villa
Sammy Ameobi Released Bolton
Haris Vuckic Released FC Twente
Lubo Satka Released FC DAC 1904
Florian Thauvin £10.0M Marseille
Kevin Mbabu £1.0M Young Boys
Matz Sels Loan – season Anderlecht
Yoan Gouffran Released Goztepe
Adam Armstrong Loan – season Bolton
Lewis Gibson £6.0M Everton – pending
Daryl Murphy £2.0M Nottingham Forest
Transfer Fees Out £25.0M
Net Spend £4.5M
kimtoon(Quote)
been a long summer
kimtoon(Quote)
Kimtoon: I think the Mackems are on live here if you can believe that (BEin sports usually show the Friday Championship game). I might watch the first half for the comedy value. See how many empty seats there are etc.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Farewell Lubo Satka. It is as if we never met. That strong Serbian/Croatian/Kashakstanian? accent when you were interviewed by Lee Ryder was intoxicating. Farewell my friend and never let anybody make fun of you again when you are in a kebab shop and they order a Lubo Satka and Stavros says “you really want goat’s balls on toast”?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And farewell (hopefully) Curtis Good. It is also as if we had never met.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And, to labour a point. In my ornithology studies I once caught a fleeting glance of the lesser-spotted Harris Vuckic ***-warbler. Only a fleeting glance though, and sadly (or not) he is gone.
I wandered lonely as a cloud….
Eric Sykes(Quote)
In what context lol
Icedog(Quote)
Oh FFS. Do we just hire morons to **** me off?
Ian Cathro at Hearts:
Played: 30
Won: 7
Lost: 14
Eric Sykes(Quote)
It is almost like Donald Trump and Anthony Scaramucci.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
But… we have Rafa. Please fix this….
Eric Sykes(Quote)
https://www.nufc.co.uk/news/latest-news/annual-accounts
well that’s grim reading
kimtoon(Quote)
It’s not good mate,what state would we be in if Rafa hadn’t got us up,perish the thought,it could be worse we could have had a balance sheet like scum
Icedog(Quote)
To be fair to Redknapp I agree with him. I do think we will be in the bottom 6 strugglers. I imagine that group will be us, Brighton, Huddersfield, Burnley and maybe Watford. I don’t see the likes of WBA, Stoke, Bournemouth or West Ham being in danger of relegation. Unfortunately for us that’s a small band of clubs. It’s going to be a tough season.
Can all change of course…
Stuart79(Quote)
inclined to agree Stu, sadly.
kimtoon(Quote)
Well we are obviously skint and have a few players who simply don’t want to leave the gravy train and are happy to sit back and watch. On that basis I say hang on to Mitro , we can’t afford better right now and I would be keeping Krul too as back up if we let Woodman go on loan.
kimtoon(Quote)
I see Sturridge is injured again.
kimtoon(Quote)
And we still owe his nibs £129m 🙄 👿
kimtoon(Quote)
Such optimism this morning . . .
georgio(Quote)
Kim – I was going to post about that last night. It’s far from great having that debt to him.
But, the debt is there and the alternative is it being with a bank – who would charge interest, and would also want regular instalments to pay it off (coz if not, that interest would just increase the amount).
Dare I say we could be in a worse position again if that loan was with a bank.
He’s said we can spend whatever we make from promotion & sales, but I don’t think we get the promotion money now.
Other clubs will go to the bank & loan money based on money they will get in the future – but will pay the interest on those loans.
Maybe we could go to fatman and say, lend us £30m & make it interest free. But at some stage we will need to start paying that back too – coz IMO that debt is a big put off for potential investors & buyers.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Why would the debt to Mikey be a problem for a buyer? If I buy a house for 100k and the owner has a 50k mortgage on it what do I care? It still costs me 100k. If I buy NUFC for 400 million and Fatman gets his 129 million of debt back, plus the other 271 million, what do I care?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
It is different for the Mackems and Ellis Short. He has 130 million invested in them and they are currently worth about 100 million tops. If a buyer comes in and gives him that 100 million he will suffer a loss of 30 million. Fatman is in the black with NUFC so the debt to him is really of no consequence. He should really give Rafa more money for a striker in order to ensure PL survival because in the long run relegation would cost him a lot more than a shiny new striker.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – that’s not how it works mate. Ashley inherited debt when he bought the club and increased a bit when we were relegated the first time. If the club is worth £300m and there is debt of £200m then it’s £500m to pay, unless Ashley is ready to take a bit of a hit.
Your Sunderland example means the club is worth nothing – which ordinarily I would wholeheartedly agree with, but for the purpose of this conversation and if I were Ellis Short, I’d have to disagree.
Sharpy17(Quote)
If only he would take the long term view, but he never does preferring the gamble/ cheap option
kimtoon(Quote)
Sharpy , agree mate the debt to him must put off potential buyers and yes if it were with a bank we’d be in a helluva worse position.
kimtoon(Quote)
No it is not Sharpy. You misunderstand how debt works.
If a club is worth 400 million, and has 200 million in debt it is still worth 400 million.
If that same club has 300 million in debt, it is still worth 400 million,
You subtract what the owner is owed from the payment to get his net gain. It is pretty simple.
Let’s do a car. I have a car and owe 5,000 to the bank on it. I sell it to you for 10,000. When you give me the 10k I repay the bank their 5k and walk away with 5k, right? You don’t care what my debt is, you only care about the price.
Similarly, Mike A has a football club that owes him 129 mil. He sells the football club for 400 mil and walks away with 271 mil. The buyer doesn’t care what Ashley is owed, the price is the price (unless the seller is in trouble, which, clearly, the fatman is not – no firesale).
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Kimtoon: you just tried to sell a house. Did the buyer ask what you owed on it? No, all they were interested in was what you would sell it for, your debt meant nothing to them.
The fact they were idiots is of no consequence.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Short has put a lot of money into Sunderland and wants his money back. It is simple maths that if he put in 200 million and sells it for 100 million he would have lost 100 million on the deal. That wouldn’t sit well with a hedge fund manager who probably does not want to lose money on his investment. He should probably cut his losses but psychologically he probably doesn’t want to.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
At the moment Sunderland is worth less than nothing to Ellis Short. He has put in a lot of money, say 200 million, and can sell it for say 50 million. That would be a loss of 150 million but the new buyers would get a club debt free. It doesn’t mean Sunderland is worth nothing, it means that Ellis Short would eat the loss.
Sharpy, I am a financial planner in Chicago, I have a degree in economics and a masters in financial planning. I know this stuff.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric, I think we are at cross purposes, I feel and I think it’s maybe what sharpy is getting at too, that Ashley will ask far more than the club is worth to get back what he paid for it plus his loan and then some.
So let’s assume the loan, what he paid and a bit of profit came to £400m asking price, it may be that that renders the club unbuyable to many people because they consider it over priced. Knock off that 129m from the price and the club suddenly looks much more inviting.
kimtoon(Quote)
What do we consider the club is worth realistically ?
kimtoon(Quote)
The price is the price. The debt doesn’t come into it. Just like when you sell a house for a profit. You pay off the mortgage and the rest goes into your pocket.
With Ellis Short he has spent more than he would make if he sold Sunderland. He would make a loss if he sold which will not sit well with a financier. Ashley will make a profit if he sells NUFC. The latest valuation was about 400 million.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric the people I was buying from agreed a price with me, they stood to make £125k profit having owned that house for two years, I estimate they spent 40_50 k tops on the refurb. At the last minute they asked for 10k more! greed in the extreme . I considered the house wasn’t worth the extra 10k , in truth I thought I was paying about £20k more than I ought to be anyway so I told them to do one. They were banking on my desperation for a bungalow and the fact I had spent 2,500 already, they were wrong.
kimtoon(Quote)
It does in a way though Eric, cause as a buyer you know if not for that 129m debt the club would be much cheaper . It’s not a mortgage on the club reflecting it’s true value, just a loan which needing taking out due to him not doing due diligence .
When I bought my house it was based on it’s price/value , had it been priced £30k more because the owner had debt to that value against it I would of walked away as other houses in the street were priced cheaper/ similar to each other ,isn’t that the same with the club ?
kimtoon(Quote)
Kimtoon: but the price you were willing to pay and what they were willing to accept had nothing to do with the debt they had on the place! You decided on the price and then disagreed later based upon other factors like location and whether you liked the property.
Similarly, NUFC is valued by what someone will pay which depends on location, manager, players, and most importantly being in the PL. Fatman gets his debt repaid from the sale proceeds just like any mortgage.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Kimtoon: we can get into price-value-worth discussions if you want but that doesn’t mean anything. What I was saying is that if there is a buyer for 400 million then the debt doesn’t matter either, because Ashley gets his money back and then some. He would probably like 500 million if that is what the market is now, but he still makes a profit at 400.
Whether Freddy Shepperd fleeced him is sort of irrelevant now
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric , They had no debt on the place they stood to make 125k but wanted 10k more. So from my point of view I was being fleeced.
Anyway back to NUFC, what’s the true value of the club ? I think that 129m is making the price too high as Sharpy says.
kimtoon(Quote)
Mitro fluffs one chance then see’s a second blocked
kimtoon(Quote)
That is not what I was saying. Plus, I was making a pun of Sheppard fleecing someone.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
😆
kimtoon(Quote)
Lee RyderVerified account @lee_ryder · 2m2 minutes ago
More
We’ve had 15 minutes here at the AOK Stadion. #nufc looking in better shape. But still goal-less
kimtoon(Quote)
How much? That is just insane for Neymar. Brilliant player, but that is a lot of money.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
We are not playing at the AOK are we. I thought we were at the training ground?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Bradley Lowery
@Bradleysfight
Follow
More
got to hand it to them, this is a great gesture, are you watching nufc.
Sunderland AFC have kindly offered the Bradley lowery foundation a cooperate box to use free with the only charge… http://fb.me/6vjgPPiWH
kimtoon(Quote)
Eric – Ashley bought the club for around £135m, but he has cleared and given loans amounting around £140m.
You are using a house as an example, but this is a business. It’s not just about the cost of SJP or a property – assets & debts have to be considered too.
I can guarantee Ashley would not take £134m for NUFC again, and I don’t imagine he’d take less than £250m to be honest. He may take a small loss to walk away from the hassle. But whoever wants to buy the club will have to choke up money to cover most if not all of that money to Ashley too mate.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Eric SSN were saying £200m for him the other day mate so I’m not shocked but yes it’s nuts and really sad in truth.
kimtoon(Quote)
I never said the fatman would take a loss to walk away. I said that Ellis Short is under water with his investment in Sunderland. Ashley will make a profit if he sells NUFC.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Shelvey getting wound up too much again
kimtoon(Quote)
Most clubs have their loans with a bank – so it’s a bit like buying a car and taking on the finance payments.
You could buy NUFC for £134m and agree repayments with a bank for the £140m or whatever it is – that might by £5-10m a season for arguments sake – so it’s £134m outlay with a £5-10m a season commitment – which might make it more affordable.
But as that debt is to Ashley, it more than doubles that price – unless a deal could be struck with Ashley to pay that debt off over time … but it’s Ashley – would you want to be in debt to him?!.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Game is on bundesliga-streams.net with German commentary
Dubai Toon(Quote)
If Ashley paid 150 million to buy the club and put in another 130 million to keep it going then that is 280 million.
If he can sell it for more than 280 million he makes a profit. Simple.
The club is valued at about 400 million now.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Whatever the debt is!!!! Debt does not affect what someone is willing to pay. Because the debt is paid off when they buy the club.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Lee RyderVerified account @lee_ryder · 1m1 minute ago
More
Some crunching challenges going in here. Rafa emerges from bench with a “calm down” message. #nufc
gulp, please no injuries ffs
kimtoon(Quote)
No it is not.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
You make no sense.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
But he doesn’t make a profit though does he? – he gets his money back. That’s my point.
Sharpy17(Quote)
I also said on here that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 23,000 within 2 years of the election. It is 22,000 now. You should have invested in US stocks. I telt ya.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Mitro scores 🙂
kimtoon(Quote)
Yes he does if he sells for 400 million. Paid 150 mil, debt of 130 mil equals 280 mil. 400-280 = 120 profit.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And so does Ritchie 0.2
kimtoon(Quote)
Simple maths. like fucking hell!
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Dubai, how good is the Ritchie free kick, they reckon superb ?
kimtoon(Quote)
Eric – i don’t know where you get £400m from mate, but Forbes doesn’t have that price –
https://www.forbes.com/teams/newcastle-united/
Sharpy17(Quote)
Kim – just saw that free kick, cracking goal.
Do we keep Mitro & give him a 2nd chance or what?!.
Sharpy17(Quote)
****, they just switched the match to Man City and no more links. ????
Dubai Toon(Quote)
They dropped the match just as we were about to attack on goal… I didn’t see either goal. ??
Dubai Toon(Quote)
Sharpy, you know I love Mitro but he has to do it consistently at PL level, yeah I think on balance I would keep him given we are too broke to upgrade this season.
kimtoon(Quote)
******, why flip the games, bloody City
kimtoon(Quote)