Exciting news yesterday as the takeover talk took a big step towards being a reality with confirmation that NUFC is officially up for sale (again.) An official statement was released to the media as it finally appears that Ashley has accepted that he is holding the club, and his investment, back now.
How likely is a takeover to happen & why does it seem like Ashley will be gone for good before long?
We have been here before, right?
My first thoughts were excitement at a potential new owner but this was also quickly followed with doubt by so many; how is this different from the other failed attempts to sell? Ashley has clearly valued the club too high previously and is known to be a difficult seller. Football clubs are usually sold behind closed doors, it only appears to be Ashley who flaunts the club like it’s a pair of trainers on eBay. The statement this time though is a step up from him sending an email address for interested parties to Sky Sports news (as he did 8 years ago) and at least was released through the club not other outlets.
Ashley lacks class and his communication methods don’t follow football protocol but I think its genuine this time. He knows he doesn’t have the money to compete, or that he doesn’t want to spend the money to enable us to compete. Wages continue to rise, transfer fees are becoming ridiculous, Rafa may be a top manager but with that he’s a very well paid one and the HMRC probe continues to hang over us. These are all things that inhibit his ability to make NUFC a ‘money making model’ on the cheap and I think he’s realised his race is run here.
He probably thought he spent good money to get it right with McClaren, but it sent us down. With the new TV deal, maybe Ashley feels he has been priced out the market and wants to sell it before the Premiership bubble bursts? Who knows, but he’s clearly a motivated seller this time – something we haven’t seen before during his timid attempts to sell in the past.
The facts
An interesting part of the statement was that they admitted ‘several’ non discourse agreements have been signed and they expect more interest. A Christmas deadline is also exciting for Newcastle fans. In reality though, takeover talk has been rife for almost 12 months now and the reality is that the statement has probably been used to drum up late interest? He is woefully inadequate as a Chairman but you know he is not going to sell on the cheap.
Another key part of the statement yesterday was the fact Ashley would accept payment in instalments. There could be good cash flow reasons for this but my concern would be if a potential owner does not have £300m up front, then will they have the capital to really back Rafa in the transfer market? It could just be hinting at trying to get a quick sale but let’s pray Ashley sells to someone who is right for us. It would be a nightmare to jump into another period of mediocrity. An owner with ambition and good intentions is essential.
Why NUFC is an attractive proposition
The global reach and new TV money deal has dramatically increased the value of all Premier League teams overnight. I am sure foreign investors would love to buy a Manchester United, or a Liverpool over ourselves, but the asking price of those teams would be over £1bn.
At around £300m, NUFC is far cheaper and the only ‘bigger’ club, certainly stadium and support wise, that could be bought. It has potential to get back into the top 6 with the right backing.
Having Rafa Benitez will also be viewed as a massive bonus. Having a world class manager in place behind a one club city and devoted fan base will only help interest. On the face of it, everything is in place for Newcastle to thrive if we had serious investment.
Do you think we will see a new owner come Christmas?
I think NUFC are a bargain at 350 million, as long as Rafa is in the deal. Hear me out. Rafa broke the duopoly in La Liga on a relatively shoestring budget. With decent investment, I am sure he could have us pushing for Europe even with the Mega-millions and other top managers. I say this because I think Man City are the only really elite club at the moment. The others are beatable, as they have already shown this season. Arsenal, in particular, look vulnerable.
Why would 350 million be a good investment? Look at the blueprint of Citeh. They had a stadium about our size and a fan base about our size. Then they won a couple of PLs and suddenly their revenue is on par with Liverpool and Arsenal. There are plenty of plastic bandwagon jumpers still out there that we could capture with just a bit of success. India and China each have populations of 1.3 Billion so there is still an untapped market.
Citeh haven’t really done anything (yet), although I think Pep will get them the Champions League. I don’t think the top 6 are unassailable, especially with a manager who has done it before. And once you get some success the money flows – Citeh and Chelsea have higher revenue than a traditionally more successful team like Liverpool.
This is last chance saloon though because I think the top 6 will strike up TV deal that will give them a bigger share of TV money in the next 3 years. You have to break that cartel now or never.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I don’t get why geographical location comes into it either. Ginola and Asprilla were OK with it. To be sure it is cold but Manchester gets about 150 days of rain a year. You can fly to London, Paris or Amsterdam in an hour, although don’t be taking taxis to Schiphol. If you live in Darras Hall it is a day trip for your WAG.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
For some perspective, Forbes Magazine estimate the value of sports teams each year. Here is a sample in dollars of their current list:
Dallas Cowboys $4.2 billion
NY Yankee $3.7 billion
Man U $3.7 billion
Barca $3.7 billion
Madrid $3.6 billion
Man City $2.1 billion
**** $1.9 billion
Chelsea $1.9 billion
Eric Sykes(Quote)
You can see there are a couple of usurpers in there, not the traditional super-powers. Man City and Chelsea. Where the owners bought the teams relatively cheaply, pumped in a lot of cash and now the teams are worth more than what they paid AND what they put in because the revenues exploded with their success.
Not saying this would happen with NUFC because that horse might have bolted. But Ashley’s price might not be as insane as some are making out.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Leicester sack Shakespeare which seems stupid. Their record is skewed because they have played 4 games against big six teams, and lost all 4. We have only played 2 and managed a draw.
Against the rest, they have played 2 at home win and a draw, and 2 away both draws.
To be honest, that is respectable. They have three more games before they meet a big 6 again, two away and one home. WTF do they expect?
Premandup(Quote)
my thoughts to a tee
icedog(Quote)
maybe the looney owners think they should be top of the lge because they have won it once,looney tunes
icedog(Quote)
Toson just scored a nice header
icedog(Quote)
another one for toson
icedog(Quote)
I think we should be giving Mitrovic a chance – a last chance if you like.
The kid can score goals, and of the 3 forwards we have at the moment, he seems more likely to get goals than Joselu & Gayle to me.
The kid comes with his problems, and he’s a potential red card waiting to happen. But either way, play him. If he scores he gets us up the league – if that results in us keeping him then so be it. If not, and Rafa still wants to sell him, well if he’s scoring goals that can only solidified his price tag.
Sharpy17(Quote)
I have absolutely no idea which is the live thread. My phone is one thread and my laptop another…
Stuart79(Quote)
Agree with that Sharpy, Mitro is our best chance of a scoring centre forward. He puts himself about, has good quick feet and plays others in. It seems however that he’s another one Rafa doesn’t trust to stick to his game plan and he is temperamental with a dropping head if things don’t go his way. I’d start him against Palace. Joselu and Gayle just don’t cut it for me.
georgio(Quote)
So now we hear Ashley’s lawyer is “inundated” with interest from people interested in NUFC. Also Reuters are reporting Amanda Stavely willing to pay £300.3m for the club and will spend £150m over two years on new players.
We also have reports that Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov is interested. It’s two or three a day now…
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart79 I hope your source isn’t Lee Ryder. His a terrible journalist.
Stem(Quote)
It is a good way for Ashley not to buy any players until January.
Stem(Quote)
I can see Ashley getting to greedy and ruining the deal.
Stem(Quote)
Moussa Sissoko gets the prize for stating the bleeding obvious – Tottenham are better than Newcastle. Yes, the team that finished 2nd last year and 3rd the year before are better than the team that was relegated and played in the Championship. Isn’t he an Arsenal fan anyway!!!
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And who help relegate us and put us in The Championship? Yes, Moussa Sissoko.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
It is likely that there is some truth to the Reuters report of interest in NUFC from Amanda Stavely. They are worldwide news agency with contacts in every realm of business as well as sport. A person close to the Investment Group choosing to talk to them rather than say The Chronic or The Sun adds a bit of weight to the story. Might be bollocks, but less likely to be than if it was an EXCLUSIVE by Lee Ryder or Neil Ashton.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
If she’s only willing to pay £300m then we’re stuck with Jabba. He ain’t that deserpate to sell that he will accept a £22m profit. He’d lose the advertising and the SD shirt sales deal also. He’ll want more than that!
Stuart79(Quote)
Hey Sham: glad to see you are with me on handing out legend status just because ex-players are on TV or on the radio. I would be annoyed if I were an Arsenal fan and Nicholas was even mentioned in the same breath as Herbert Chapman, Charlie George, Tony Adams, Dennis Bergcamp or Thiery Henry. Even Wenger, who we all should remember has won 3 PLs.
You know my thoughts on Fat Boy Quinn, that 2 decent seasons in the second division does not a legend make.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
just a opening bid Stu
icedog(Quote)
Negotiating tactic? Start with a lowball number and compromise? Who knows. I read the comments section in The Mail and most said they would do her even though she is 45 and that she has nice teeth. Good to see there isn’t chauvinism in football.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Ice: it is also not even a bid yet. It is a leak from an anonymous source.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
The nature of negotiation Stuart. I agree with what you’ve said earlier though in that anything said in public or reported won’t be true.
georgio(Quote)
Ice: you must have known Herbert Chapman, now he was a true legend.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
That is simply not the case. The wrangling over Man U went on for months. Fenway Sports Group were open about their pursuit of Liverpool. There are many, many other examples.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I find it all hard to believe considering Reuters seem to know more than Mike Ashley.
Stuart79(Quote)
Glazers were major shareholders on a company listed on the FTSE 100. They had to make their bid public. I have no idea about Fenway though.
Stuart79(Quote)
The Glazers had to put 800 million of financing together to buy Man U so their interest was pretty much out in the open, plus they were negotiating with the Irish Horse trainers. It is simply not true that every deal is secret.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Fenway saw an opportunity to get Liverpool on the cheap so their bid was pretty much public knowledge especially since the fans hated Hicks and Gillett. There was some contract clause or refinancing holdup that let FSG get Liverpool for about 300 million and now the estimated worth is 1.2 billion.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Wor Jackie and big Al are legends,something might not agree with is in his prime Peter B was as good as Messie imo
icedog(Quote)
I don’t think I’ve ever said every deal is secret. What is undeniable is that in most cases the buyers aren’t actually known until the deal is done or it is very close to being done. Nobody would let anybody do any due diligence with NDA’s being signed. That alone precludes most things from being discussed in public.
Stuart79(Quote)
I understand your point here Stuart. There are stock exchange disclosure rules when parties own a certain % of shares. I think it is pretty low over here, 10% maybe. I had a stock brokers license for 20 years but was never involved in mergers so I forget, but it is around 10% so when the Glazers purchased the Horse Trainers’ shares they would have to disclose. And I do know that NUFC is privately held so the same rules do not apply.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
just wondering if the land Jabba bought behind the gallowgate will be in with the deal??
icedog(Quote)
The NDA does not preclude naming of the interested party. Sometimes they want it open as leverage. FSG knew Hicks and Gillett were despised on Merseyside for example.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stuart: you should read Barbarians at the Gate about the LBO of RJR Nabisco. There is also a movie with James Garner. You will see that not all deals are secret. Most will be because Management want to negotiate some massive secret payoff that they disclose as they are walking out the door. That is obviously not true with Ashley as he is owner and said he is a willing seller.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
According the Financial Times yesterday, Staveley “was due to meet Newcastle representatives on Tuesday, according to one person briefed on talks.”
heres hoping
icedog(Quote)
I think the biggest leverage Fenway had was that RBS about to pull the plug on a financing agreement so they were desperate. If only we had a similar situation…
Stuart79(Quote)
I though Staveley was a deal broker, not a super rich power house. Why are several papers saying SHE is close to making a bid? SHE cant afford it?
shamrock(Quote)
I love St Peter but Messi is in a class of his own. We get all of Barca’s games and he is probably the best of all time and I do know he has competition from a lot of players. He scores 50 goals a season from attacking mid-field! That’s why I put him ahead of Pele and Maradonna.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
They are saying SHE would finance 75m for each of the next 2 seasons. Thats more than her estimated personal wealth?
shamrock(Quote)
Is that the sort of meeting where Mike has 12 pints with vodka chasers and pukes up in the fireplace?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Icedog: you seem to be clued in. I have always wondered how Pardew got the NUFC job. It hasn’t really been disclosed. Do you have any information? Keep in mind I am sure hacks and NUFC people read blogs.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Today the FT have said she’s working on a plan to buy NUFC using Middle Eastern investment. According to some in the financial industry she’s “showing a level of interest that surprises some.”
I just can’t believe she’s this public. Hope I’m wrong like.
Stuart79(Quote)
What’s not to like about that? Surely she’ll be bowled over by that sort of meeting?
Stuart79(Quote)
ERIC Ime saying nowt,would spoil my info track,you wouldn’t like it believe me
Icedog(Quote)
Everyone is staying mum at toon mind this is out their scope I suppose,or frightened to say owt not knowing the out come one way or the other
Icedog(Quote)
Ice – Nobody at the club will know nowt. Not unless it’s Justin Barnes.
Stuart79(Quote)
Well, how shyte do you have to be? Pards has a gig on Sky and a newspaper column after being sacked from West Ham, pushed out at Southampton, on the precipice at NUFC and sacked by Palace. I just don’t understand. Does total gobshytery make up for your total lack of success?
Cheers Ice, I understand. Hopefully at some point it will come out because I would like to know the real story.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
To be fair Eric, only the absolute creme de la creme of managers don’t get sacked from the majority of the clubs at some point. And the creme de la creme are not really interested in being couch potatoes on sky!
shamrock(Quote)
I suppose you are right. NUFC fired SBR. Pards should manage Sunderland. He would get them promoted. He has an 18 month sell-by-date before the players realise his bluster and bravado is gobshitery. Oh well. Let’s see what happens with us, I shouldn’t be worrying about Cockney Chancers and Mackems 🙂
Eric Sykes(Quote)
So, one of the Interns at The Chronic decided to ask all of the “writers” what their take on Ashley putting NUFC up for sale was? I read a couple of their views and then it struck me – they have fckin 8 full time “journalists” dedicated to NUFC and yet on a daily basis say nothing remotely interesting, usually rehashing what they find on internet searches and newsnow. Yes, that’s 8 staff who can barely put 3 paragraphs together!
Then they have Fat Boy Quinn, Rob Lee, John Gibson, Bob Moncur, Malcolm McDonald, Don Hutchison all doing feature pieces?
Am I missing anybody? Exclusive interviews with Ugly John!
How many Chronic journalists and feature writers does it take to change a lightbulb? And can any of them write more than 3 paragraphs?
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/newcastle-united-up-sale-what-13778980
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Seriously, there are 8 (eight) of them. What do they do?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
FFS. Here’s the list. What do they do all day?
Andrew Musgrove
Mark Douglas
Ryder
Chris Waugh
Stuart Jamieson
Sean McCormick
Craig Johns
Stuart Rayner
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I think they just stand around in the lunch room trying to guess Mike Ashley’s weight to the nearest ton.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I know that I am ranting but isn’t it appalling the quality of reporting and insight we get from 8 full time journalists and at least 6 feature writers at The Chronic? How many “5 things we learned (LEARNT)” must we suffer?
I read other papers and they have one journalist assigned to the North East:
George Caulkin at The Times
Mackem Taylor at The Guardian
Craig Hope at The Mail
Simon Bird at The Mirror
Luke Edwards at The Telegraph
It doesn’t take 8 of them to tell me 5 things they learned (LEARNT).
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Good question. Quality, original articles are few and far between.
shamrock(Quote)
Mackem on hols in Amsterdam goes into brothel asks have you a girl ugly,dirty looking and hairy,oh your into kinky sex then,no Ime just homesick 😆 😆
Icedog(Quote)
I’m not sure they’re all NUFC front line journos, Eric. Ryder and Waugh I think are the actual full time NUFC journos but the likes of Mark Douglas are editors and some of them you list are on line editors, online content ect…
Stuart79(Quote)
They all write articles. I have seen their by-lines.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Mark Douglas and Craig Waugh certainly write main articles. Musgove had the by-line on the link I posted. Douglas actually does some research now and again though, so if he is the editor he should be head writer as well, because God knows Lee could use some help.
If Mark Douglas is the editor maybe he should employ a copy-editor as every piece is full of mistakes. I know I shouldn’t criticize as I make mistakes.
My auto-correct just corrected criticise to criticize.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Online content is the same as print content now. It is fully integrated. You think there are separate departments for print and online?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
The last time I bought a newsprint newspaper was 10 years ago. Maybe if I forgot my phone I might buy a paper copy of The Ronny? But why would that take a different editor for the same story?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Anyway.
All I am saying is that there are 8 of them and that seems to be a lot for their lack of output and insight – on-line, print, editors or journalists.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Firstly, Eric, I think you might as well just stop reading the chronicle as it seems to get you pissed off.
Stuart79(Quote)
I just want it to be better and for them to do their jobs. You own your own business, if you had 8 employees and 7 were incompetent or slacking off I doubt they would be your employees for long.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
There has to be some disconnect if some Tattooed Silverback Gorilla (The True Geordie) youtube blast gets 500,000 hits and the B&W podcast with 8 full time staff from The Chronic gets 3.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Well, I have been on the other thread since yesterday !
kimtoon(Quote)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/10/18/amanda-staveley-expected-make-formal-newcastle-united-offer/amp/
Stuart79(Quote)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-4994808/Amanda-Staveley-makes-300m-bid-buy-Newcastle-United.html
Stuart79(Quote)
Someone’s doing the briefing rounds…
Stuart79(Quote)
What I’ve found interesting about the Mail article is that it’s written by the city correspondent and not the sports correspondent.
Stuart79(Quote)
I want to know a few things about this Staveley interest.
1) who is bank rolling the bid? The papers say ‘she’ is making a bid. She cant afford it.
2) why have the papers not picked up on this.
3) If it really is her, then it is a consortium and her level of actual ownership of the club would be a small percentage. So who else is in on the consortium and can they actually afford to progress the club?
4) would a consortium mean too many cooks in the kitchen?
5) would it also mean Ashley keeps his tat sale amongst the club?
shamrock(Quote)
Aye they are saying talks have been on going for two wks
Icedog(Quote)