Newcastle’s January gamble – Why there could be method in our madness

As the transfer window “slammed shut” according to Sky Sports (or to the rest of us simply finished) on Tuesday, we were too busy basking in the glory of getting to the Carabao cup final to really care too much about anything else.

As we spent last week slowly shaking off the hangovers, informing our parents of our intention to miss a certain evening meal, and wondering if we prioritize train or plane tickets to London over meals and bills for the next 23 days, its maybe time for a little more of a closer look at the hot topic.

Did the club do enough in January? Was the window a failure?

It’s a debate that has intensified in the predictably negative over-reaction to last nights 1-1 draw with West Ham.

It’s a nuanced question, full of “how” , “why”and potential “what if” based motifs. The departures of Chris Wood and Jonjo Shelvey to Nottingham Forest were unexpected, because while several fringe players were expected to be offered around, both Wood and Shelvey were seen as very much part of the first team squad. It’s easy to point fingers at the club for letting them leave, but both of the players wanted the move and the club thought it made sense in the long term. They’ve earned the right to make that call.

Harrison Ashby and Anthony Gordon were long term targets, and their arrivals both improve the squad now, and will excite in the future. Gordon in particular impressed when he came on yesterday, with some lovely touches and passages of play, including a through ball to Callum Wilson that should have been the winner.

Yet the real objective for January wasn’t attained, so while failure is a strong word, in simplified terms, maybe it was.

The club had openly briefed that they wanted, and indeed needed another central midfielder. A DMF or a “number 6” to use the parlance of our time, and all this before Shelvey signed for Forest. It was thought this new player would allow Bruno Guimaraes to return to his favoured role of a “number 8”, but despite numerous links to numerous players, it never materialized.

It’s fair to say that as a fan base we’re concerned by the lack of midfield options. Eddie Howe and Dan Ashworth definitely are. Elliot Anderson probably isn’t. If that wasn’t enough, the football gods threw us the curveball of our midfield maestro’s suspension, we now face the next two league games without one of the most complete midfielders in world football.

The discussions on social media about what was and wasn’t done in the window, have been fascinating. Positive and negative, there’s validity on all sides of the discussion, as there are holes.

The “missing a huge opportunity” argument has sound logic, given that it’s unlikely Liverpool and Chelsea will be as weak next season, and Manchester United are annoyingly getting their act together. The caveat to this of course, is it doesn’t feel like we aren’t going anywhere either, and it certainly isn’t a “Champions League this year or bust” situation.

The “owners have let Howe down” narrative seems too strong, while the “it doesn’t matter, we couldn’t afford Hamza Choudury on loan 18 months ago” take needs to be retired, as it isn’t really relevant to the current situation.

There’s also the opinion, that signing players simply isn’t as easy as it is on FM or Fifa, but let’s be honest, the recent antics of Chelsea and Nottingham Forest have given the opposers of that argument plenty of ammunition.

The truth is we are such a well oiled machine, that it will take a special type of player to come in as a DMF, or a “number 6” and improve that midfield. The common social media narrative, which is that if we go and sign a player who is simply better technically than Sean Longstaff, then we improve our midfield, is a very lazy one.

Essentially, what we need, and what Howe and Ashworth are looking for, is a player better than or equal to Bruno Guimaraes, and those are few and far between. While we all associate him with playmaking, technical brilliance and the vision and passing ability to unlock teams, it’s also his defensive awareness that makes him such a special player, and his contribution to the league’s best defence this season has been huge. His ability to cut passing lanes, read and stop attacks, all whilst having the mobility and work ethic to do so is genuinely elite. The domestic targets that were mentioned, such as Neves, Tielemans and Sander Berge, although technically excellent footballers, aren’t at the same level defensively. Not even close. Play any of them as a 6 and move Bruno forward, and there’s a strong case to be made that it actually weakens our midfield in certain aspects.

So while it’s disappointing and no one is above criticism, we have to stay calm and trust the process. The hierarchy have shown us already that they’d rather do it right than quickly. Look at the ultimately successful pursuits of Botman, Gordon and Ashby, and waiting months for Ashworth himself to complete his gardening leave after resigning from Brighton.

Elite clubs, managers and technical directors can have disappointing windows in the short term, but benefit long term, and recent history shows plenty of examples.
Guardiola didn’t get Kane, then didn’t rush into getting a new striker. Klopp waited a year before eventually getting van Dijk, despite criticism from Liverpool fans. The right player is worth the wait, and you have to trust that this summer will see that player arrive.

It’s a gamble, and it’s one that if it doesn’t come off and we don’t make the Champions League, will see fingers pointed. That bridge will be crossed when we get to it.

For now, let’s remember that we’re still class, we have Bruno and Isak to come back, our defence is still brilliant, and we’re in good hands.

Onto Bournemouth.

HTL!