With the transfer window closing tomorrow evening, there appears to be a lot of business for Rafa and NUFC to do, both in and out of the club. Newcastle fans are rightly cautious about dealings over the next few days, with us let down on many deadline days in the past. Andy Carroll’s departure or that bogus helicopter ride for Bryan Ruiz spring to mind. So just what may happen and where do we need to strengthen?
Departures
There has finally been some departures of squad deadwood this week, meaning valuable wages off the wage bill and hopefully more room to bring new faces in. Here are who has left recently and who we can expect to depart:
- COMPLETE- Siem De Jong – Ajax – anywhere between £2-4m
- COMPLETE – Riviere – Metz – nominal fee
- COMPLETE – Hanley – Norwich City (3.5m)
- Lazaar – loan mooted back to Serie A
- Haidara – loan moote
- Colback – left out of Rafa’s plans, Hull and Villa interested
- Gayle – Bid from Fulham for £15m
- Krul – Likely to complete move away from NUFC, linked to Benfica
- Saivet – appears to not be in Rafa’s plans, could return to Ligue 1
The news this morning on Gayle is a bit of a shock after such a good season last year. There are doubts he can deliver at this level though and the fee could be used to bring in the extra quality we need. You would hope though the departure would not be sanctioned until we had a replacement lined up.
Potential arrivals
Let’s look at some of the most recent links for inbound players. Could any of these arrive tomorrow?
- Origi – NUFC have been credited with an interest and Klopp wants regular action for the Belgian striker, seems unlikely at this stage though.
- Perez – Appears to be the most likely option should NUFC pursue a Gayle replacement. Wants out at Arsenal and Rafa is clearly a fan.
- Batshuayi – With Llorente seemingly on his way to Chelsea, could Newcastle pull off this impressive loan signing?
- Kenedy – A loan deal had been agreed but now looks unlikely unless Chelsea add to their squad and can therefore sanction his exit.
- Reina – Long held interest and Rafa wants an experienced keeper. A reunion between the pair may be on the cards as Reina appeared to wave goodbye to fans last week but would a place on PSG’s bench be more appealing than move to the North East?
- Praet – The talented Belgian can play in the number 10 role or right wing but with the asking price at more than £20m, you would expect funds would have to be raised from outgoings to finance this deal. We also face stiff competition from Everton.
There looks set to be many twists and turns over the next few days but let’s hope this window isn’t as disappointing as we fear it is beginning to appear. We need a striker and number 10 as a minimum to give us the best chance of staying up.
Who do you think will leave and who do you want to see arrive?
I read this blog every day, and who did we miss out on that anybody has mentioned. Seriously, who? We were all hoping that Rafa would find some gem but who were we in for?
Not Thomas Lemar whose price went from about 40 million to 90 million in 2 days.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
TDS – Who’s “demanding” Ashley sells up? I personally said the club will achieve nothing while he’s here. There’s no point supporting the club while he’s here, regardless of manager.
As for you nonsensical view on why anyone would buy the club, I point you to Everton (won’t ever be the biggest club in their City), Southampton, (who), Swansea (who), WBA, (who) Crystal Palace (Londons smallest PL club) and Wolves (Championship) have all been bought or invested in during the last year. Why are they different? It’s because Ashley wants £400m for a club that as you point out is newly promoted and has been relegated twice. Let alone the debts of £140m (most of which accrued during Ashley’s ownership.) FOr some reason he thinks the clubs value has increased by 300%.
Your critique was poorly thought through I’m afraid. If he was serious about selling he would – just like the clubs above have managed to find buyers.
Stuart79(Quote)
Eric – Rafa obviously feels the club missed out on his transfer targets. Abrahams, Caballero, Perez and Targett to start with. The club have left him without a left back ffs! It’s amateur!
We have signed;
Lejoune
Atsu
Manquillo
Merino
Joselu
Murphy
Not one single player has proven they can play in the PL. they might be great signings but its clearly not what Rafa was told would happen. I couldn’t give a **** about the amount of cash spent. But Rafa has been cheated and Ashley has reverted to type.
Its not good enough. He’s tried this before and it’s got us relegated twice. Why does he continue doing it?
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart: You are a business owner. How can you not understand the difference between gross and net? If Ashley sells at 400 million the debts will be wiped out as part of that cost. It is the same as if you buy a house. If you pay 400k you do not assume the present owner’s debt/liability. It is part of the payment FFS.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Of the list you say were targets, have any of them proven they can play in the PL? Cabalerro has gone to sit on a bench for the next 2 years, so what ambition does that show?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – I think it’s you who doesn’t quite understand. He purchased the club for £130m he now wants £400m! The club would be purchased debt free but that debt is a contributory factor in the price of £400m. He has invested £250m (purchase price and loans to the club) and now he wants a profit of £150m. For what exactly?
Stuart79(Quote)
Oh and when he purchased the club for £130m the debts were approx £50m for the stadium. Debts now over £150m
Stuart79(Quote)
I think you’re missing the point – again! Rafa has been told one thing and the club has done another. Regardless of whether they are PL quality, he wanted them and club didn’t get them. The players brought in have clearly been 3/4th down the list.
Stuart79(Quote)
So, Eric, in effect Ashley has tripled the club debt but also thinks the club has gone up in value by £150m. Gross, net, call it what you want, these are not the actions of someone who is serious about selling.
Stuart79(Quote)
Let me explain Dougal. This plastic cow is near and that real cow is far away. Far away.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
OK, one more try. The price is what the price is, no matter how much Ashley says he owes himself.
If I sell Stuart a car for $10,000 does he care that I owe the bank $5,000 on it?
When I sell it for $10,000 I will then pay back the bank their $5,000.
It doesn’t suddenly become worth $10,000 plus the $5,000 I owe, which is what Stuart is saying Ashley’s maths is.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Opaque is crystal in comparison to that explanation, Eric.
Stuart79(Quote)
Its from Father Ted.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Ok, one more try for you; the debt has gone up by £100m minimum on his watch. That’s due to his **** ups. If he asked for £130m for the club, plus the £150m debts to be repaid to himself that puts the purchase price at £280m. That would basically mean the purchase price for any new owner is higher due to his **** ups. Now, what’s not to understand about that?
Actually in reality, he’s not only asking for a higher purchase price (due to his **** ups), he’s also asking for an additional £100m minimum as a profit.
It’s not hard to grasp, Eric.
Stuart79(Quote)
Father Ted is trying to explain perspective to Dougal because he is an imbecile. He puts a plastic model cow on the table and says “close”, then points at a cow outside in the field and says “far away, far away”. Maybe you had to see the show to appreciate it.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
But using your car analogy;
If the car is only being valued by the seller at $10,000 because you have $5,000 to pay back to the bank your car is overvalued and won’t get sold. Now, what Ashley is doing is; he’s valuing that car at $15,000 because he wants his money back for what he paid, he wants enough to pay back the bank and he wants a profit.
Looks rather stupid now…
Stuart79(Quote)
Eric
Likewise, I don’t think anyone would claim we had a good transfer window, but some of the players we’ve been linked with aren’t a great loss. I already mentioned Gibbs, but Perez was clearly only interested in going back to Deportivo, and he did. We didn’t get Kenedy because Chelsea didn’t get Ox, fair enough. Abrahams? Not sure why we didn’t get him but it could have been any number of reasons.
Lots of other PL clubs seem to have spend big sums (£10m+) on average/unproven players. I’d like to have seen us bring in more players for sure, but I’m really not seeing many players that moved to similar status clubs to ours that I wish we had signed for a similar deal.
Does anyone have thoughts on a few players you wish we’d signed and could have realistically got?
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Standard excuse from many on here. “I’m not too bothered because the players we were linked too weren’t that good.” This seems to happen every year. Other clubs get their business done yet we don’t every year and then come up with excuses for it.
Gullible isn’t the word.
Stuart79(Quote)
TDS – We could have signed many players. A few;
Bony
Sanches
Hart
Mangala
Just off the top of my head. Where’s the money gone?
Stuart79(Quote)
Then you don’t buy it at that price!!!!!!!!!!! That is not what Ashley is doing. He is looking at other teams and valueing NUFC accordingly, or in his mind. I think it has ****** all to do with the loan he has made to NUFC. The price is independent of the loan.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Jesus, Eric! If you don’t think the price he wants has anything to do with the money he has put in then I really don’t know what to say!
Stuart79(Quote)
Although, I would be very interested in how you think he’s arrived at his sales price of £400m.
Stuart79(Quote)
NUFC cost approx. £135m to buy according to Wikipedia. Ok.
At the time there was lots of debt from the stadium and also a huge amount due to clubs for player transfers, including for some players who were no longer at the club. My understanding is that Ashley paid off all debt to avoid interest payments and assumed the debt himself. We obviously accumulated more debt to Ashley when we got relegated and he provided a loan. Depending on what you read (and I don’t have time to look at the accounts now), the loan to Ashley now could be around £160m (claims that another loan was provided in January). So…the total amount to pay off the initial and further investment in the club would be around £300m.
So how on earth does that mean he’s asking for 300% of what he paid? Sounds like he’s asking for a 33% profit. I would imagine if his asking price is £400m (and please do provide the proof that is true), then there will be additional costs involved in selling and obviously some negotiation. So maybe split the difference and sell at £350m and he’s made some profit for 10 years of owning and working at the club. Anything less than £300m and he has zero incentive to sell.
So…who is going to pay £350m to buy NUFC? What is the goal? What can they get out of owning us? That really is the key question. The other clubs that have been mentioned above either have lesser goals or are just looking for a bit of extra cash to push them to the next level. Examples:
Everton – very well run for years and with a solid core of good players and youth system. Just needed a bit more money to buy some class and push them on. Firmly established as a PL club and often in top 10 even before then.
West Ham, Southampton, Swansea, Palace – for all of these clubs, the big result for them is staying in the PL and reaping the wealth and status from doing so. Staying in the PL allows those clubs to invest and grow in all areas.
Wolves – as above but to get into the PL first.
So as an investor, what is the incentive to buy and invest in NUFC?
1 – Grow NUFC to be in Europe regularly? Can you imagine how much time and/or £££ that would cost?
2 – Stablise and stay in the PL? Would hardly be seen as a success by fans.
3 – Advertising vehicle? Fans wouldn’t be happy.
4 – Love? Just need to find a multi-billionaire NUFC fan.
Even an investor for fun wants to know that owning the club would be seen as a success and that they can realistically achieve it. When you compare the minimum £300m to buy the club, plus having to actually spend additional money to improve areas of the club (like obviously the playing squad), do you really think that NUFC is good value for money to invest in compared to other clubs when they want to make it a success?
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
OK, of that lot Sanches may work out, but by your standards he doesn’t have PL experience so we wouldn’t want him anyway.
Hart – did you watch him on Saturday and had a **** season at Torino.
Bony – good for Swans, bad at City and Stoke. A bit like Cisse for us. Great for a while and then a **** sandwich.
Mangala – how many games has he played when Kompany was injured?
They are all questionable signings on big money. If you want them then I have a used (car) Colback to sell you. Call me at 888 123 4567 and we can talk.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stuart
Ok. So…
Bony – hinged on the Llorente deal so pressure there. Also seemingly wanted to go back to Swans.
Sanches – Clement pulled off a coup because of his relationship with Bayern.
Hart – Seriously?
Mangala – why would he come to us? He’ll much more likely stay or go to a club in Europe in a foreign league. He would cost over £30m for a perm transfer.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
When did I say we should never buy players without Pl experience? I don’t think I did. I only made the point that all the players we have bought ALL the players have no proven PL quality.
Anyway don’t let that get int he way of trying to make a point.
Stuart79(Quote)
Excuses, excuses! It’s pitiful, it really is. We show no effort to get involved in players who are wanted elswhere.
Stuart79(Quote)
Joselu and Manquillo both have experience in the PL. So that’s outright bollox.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Instead of trying to keep up and lay the going rate for players (every signing is a risk) then what we should do is continue doing what we have done for ten years under Ashley. Just like we have this window. Please remind me how this way has gone for us in the last ten years? Mmmm, not to well. Maybe we should try doing it a different way and actually spending some money on players with at least some pedigree.
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart
Why the hell would I be making excuses??? It’s not my failure for a poor transfer window. I’m saying that some fans seem to have unrealistic expectations of who we could/should have brought in.
You really have no idea what goes on behind closed doors. Tell me how many of the players we did sign were made aware to you before we actually signed them? Most of them were completely out of the blue.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
“Proven PL quality” I said.
Stuart79(Quote)
“Unrealistic expectations!!!!” ????? Sorry, I know we should know our place. That’s below, Bournemouth, WBA, Swansea, Burnley, Huddersfield and Brighton. Not to mention Wolves and Middlesbrough who have all shown more ambition in the window than us.
Stuart79(Quote)
Ford Colback for sale: $10,000 but $15,000 to Stuart because he is willing to assume the $5,000 in bank debt as well. Great little runner, but will lose control now and again and get you a few points on your license. Maybe even a suspension. Will definitely go through a few yellows (ambers), but not this year as he has been garaged by Rafa.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Anyway, I have no idea why I am even discussing this and trying to defend my position. The facts are in front of us. Like they have been every year.
Every time you in particular, TDS come on here and make comments they look ridiculous in time. I think we’ve had the same discussions for a few years. We always fail, yet you always make excuses.
I’m done.
Stuart79(Quote)
I’ll give you $5,000 for it? Would you take that?
Stuart79(Quote)
Oh and it’s not me who’s assuming the debt. It’s what Ashley’s doing. But you still haven’t explained how you think he’s come to £400m. Still waiting.
Stuart79(Quote)
He has come up with 400 million because that is what he thinks the market price is now. It could have something to do with what he paid and what he loaned, but it also has something to do with what teams are valued at now. Palace were paid 130 million for 33% so the Fat Man might look at that and say NUFC must be worth about the same or more, even though they are in London and have a hit stadium and much more completion from local teams.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And the fact that when Ashley bought NUFC the TV money was 50 million and now the average team in the PL gets 140 million A YEAR.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stuart: I am sure you are very successful. BUT, how do you run a business when you do not understand anything about finances? I hope you have a good accountant.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
**** auto-correct. Competition/****
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Oh Eric – Finally this might make it understandable. If Jabba sells the club as it is, that debt will need to be paid off. It would need to be paid off by the purchaser. The only way not to take the debt into consideration would be to turn it into equity. He hasn’t done that.
Stuart79(Quote)
Oh and Eric, a business with debt at £160m is not worth as much as business with hardly any debt. Maybe that’s why Palace was worth what they got.
For some inexplicable reason you aren’t even considering the debt and the effects it has on the value of a business. Now, who is it who has no idea about finances?
Stuart79(Quote)
Walking along the street this morning I couldn’t help but notice loads of broken toys lying around.
For those of you unimpressed with our transfer window I’d like to know:
Who we could have signed to guarantee more goals than the £18m rated Gayle? Bony’s legs have gone. Perez would only go to Depor. Slimani would have cost a lot more etc.
With Kenedy lined up for LB how were the club to know Chelski would pull the plug? Saints got weird about Targett at the last minute. Gibbs went cheap but Arsene must have had good reason for that. Who would you have signed for LB and at what cost?
We’ve upgraded in only two positions and signed cover in 3 more. It’s not that bad.
I also re watched the WHam game and we were really impressive. WHam are not that bad but we made them look it and we’re much more mobile, energetic with Shelvey and Dummett out of the team. HTL!
georgio(Quote)
No. The price is the price. The debt is paid off upon the sale. It is PART OF THE PRICE. Talk to your accountant.
The Fatman could choose to still have a stake (steak, in his case) in the NUFC.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – I’m glad you’ve finally accepted that the debt has been taken into account when setting his asking price. We got there in the end.
Stuart79(Quote)
Georgio: I said earlier I wasn’t sure who we would get with the prices being quoted.
And, I am not really that upset about Targett as I had never heard of him until yesterday.
Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, but now it looks as if they are here to stay …
Eric Sykes(Quote)
No we didn’t.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
The sale documents will state clearly either;
The club is debt free as any debt the club had accrued has been turned into equity or;
The sales price is inclusive of all debts the club has which are payable upon completion.
Either way, the debt has been taken into account when setting the asking price. The buyer couldn’t care less as long as the price he pays reflects the value of the asset.
Of course Ashley could also sell the club with the debt. But that would drastically reduce his asking price. 😆
Stuart79(Quote)
One more time…
If I have a house that is worth 100k and I sell it for 100k why would it matter to the buyer if I had a mortgage of 20k or 50k. The price is the price.
Similarly, if Fatty has a loan of 100 million or 200 million on NUFC that should not affect the price. If it is worth 400 million it is worth 400 million regardless of the debt unless the Fatman desperately needs to sell, which he doesn’t.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stuart/Eric – you’re both right. Time to move on . . .
georgio(Quote)
Arrrhhhh…. Nobody ever takes on the debt of a football club when they buy it outright. It just doesn’t happen.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
You know what, right now our place IS below the likes of Swansea, WBA and Burnley. Why? Because they have been in the PL for several seasons and had a chance to buy players for the PL (both at the time and in the future) as well as not losing huge amounts of money for being relegated last season. As a player, they ARE more attractive options right no! Bournemouth might be too, considering their location, they have a young up and coming manager and they did at least stay up last season. Huddersfield and Brighton? Utter waffle. I don’t think Brighton strengthened well at all, whereas the best Huddersfield player was on loan there last season.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
I’m sorry that it was an essay earlier, but it’s blatantly clear that £300m is the rock bottom price that Ashley would accept for the club and that would mean not making a profit. Considering that the TV money has gone up so much, I’d say it’s fair that he wants to make a bit of money after running the club for 10 years. The asking price of £400m is speculation, but I’d say that’s a realistic point that he would be starting from. It’s certainly going to cost more than £300m.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Stuart: I am shocked that as a purported successful businessman that you know nothing about finance.
My offer for the Ford Colback still stands. 15k, no questions asked. MOT will be in the post.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Ok. Another example, you buy a house as an investment for £135,000 cash and invest another £165,000 in it. That’s £300k that you could have spent on a different house or invested in the stock market.
Someone comes along and offers you £250,000 for the house. Unless you’re desperate for the money or you think the value will decrease, you say no. Simple. Your asking price if people enquire? Probably around £400k if you’re not that bothered about selling.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
you might have a point if it was the house who had the mortgage and not the owner of the house. 😳
Stuart79(Quote)
Not true. I am right. You have to go back to what Stuart said earlier to relies he was saying that the cost of a buyer for NUFC would be the price PLUS the debt. Now he has changed his tune.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – I’ll give you £20k for that Ford Colback. Don’t need the MOT as I just want to drop it off the Tyne Bridge.
georgio(Quote)
Eric – you don’t seem to grasp the fundamental issue. The amount of debt a company has, has a direct impact on the value of that business. A debt free business is worth more than a business with a big debt. How can’t you see that?
Stuart79(Quote)
That’s what I have been trying to explain to Stuart. Anybody that disagrees need to go back 50 posts to see what he was saying 🙂
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – I have never once said Jabba wants £400m plus the debt. You are wrong – absolutely wrong! My original comment was always the reason he has a high asking price is because he wants his money back (the debt plus purchase price) plus profit.
Stuart79(Quote)
No it doesn’t. Most companies have debt. You are defeating your own argument because the “debt’ is “Owed” to the Fatman so is “debt” in name only.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
“It’s because Ashley wants £400m for a club that as you point out is newly promoted and has been relegated twice. Let alone the debts of £140m (most of which accrued during Ashley’s ownership.) FOr some reason he thinks the clubs value has increased by 300%”
That’s my comment you’re talking about. Please read it. No where does it say he wants £400m plus the debt. I was explaining how mad it is that he wants £400m because we’ve only just got promoted and have been relegated twice and have a debt of £140m.
Think you need to go to spec savers.
Stuart79(Quote)
Most companies take on debt because they believe that they can make more money from what they sell than they will have to pay back. It is a balancing act and you have to keep it under control. If another company comes in and buys them then they will assume the debt. BUT THAT IS PART OF THE FCKING PRICE THEY PAY. It is not added to it as you said earlier and quite a few times on here.
End of accountancy lesson.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
You’re mad! You are genuinely the only person I know who wouldn’t take into account the amount of debt a company has when valuing! Read what you’re typing. It defies belief.
Stuart79(Quote)
That was not the comment I was talking about. It was others that you have made for months.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Come on, Eric! Show me where I said he wants the asking price plus the debt. Come on!!!!
Stuart79(Quote)
Rubbish. You said go back 50 posts. You’re making a fool of yourself.
Stuart79(Quote)
It’s not the debt that is the issue here. It’s the total amount of money that Ashley has invested in NUFC compared to what he has received back. Considering that he hasn’t taken any actual money out of the club (other than a small repayment I think he made to a loan), his only ‘payment’ has been in terms of free advertising for his other company. Also accepting that he’s stated that he does that in exchange for waiving the interest on the loans (previous chairmen charged huge sums of interest on loans to NUFC), we can still say that he’s invested around £300m in the club, plus a considerable amount of his own time.
So…that’s the minimum he’d want back. Simple really.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Never said that. I said that you were saying the valuation of NUFC should be the current value PLUS what Ashley has lent the club. You said it man, I could go back and quote you, but I cant be bothered.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I’m in the car for the next hour so I have lots of time to wait for your evidence.
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart: you need an accounting lesson.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stewie, Stewie, Stewie.
No wonder Troy was you best friend. Bestie, even.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
You can’t find that. You’re wrong.
My point all along; Ashley values NUFC at £400m. He paid £130m and lent the club £150m. Total £280m. So because of his mess ups he’s having to increase the sales price to recoup his loan. Plus £120m profit. If he didn’t make his **** ups the club wouldn’t be in debt to the tune of £150m. This would allow him to still make his £120m profit but have s more competitive sales price.
Not hard!
Stuart79(Quote)
Could be wrong of course. Ashley might still have wanted £400m and to make £220m profit. But the fact is the £400m seems to be the reason no buyers are around. So I imagine his valuation would have changed if he was only £180m in and not £250m.
Stuart79(Quote)