With the transfer window closing tomorrow evening, there appears to be a lot of business for Rafa and NUFC to do, both in and out of the club. Newcastle fans are rightly cautious about dealings over the next few days, with us let down on many deadline days in the past. Andy Carroll’s departure or that bogus helicopter ride for Bryan Ruiz spring to mind. So just what may happen and where do we need to strengthen?
Departures
There has finally been some departures of squad deadwood this week, meaning valuable wages off the wage bill and hopefully more room to bring new faces in. Here are who has left recently and who we can expect to depart:
- COMPLETE- Siem De Jong – Ajax – anywhere between £2-4m
- COMPLETE – Riviere – Metz – nominal fee
- COMPLETE – Hanley – Norwich City (3.5m)
- Lazaar – loan mooted back to Serie A
- Haidara – loan moote
- Colback – left out of Rafa’s plans, Hull and Villa interested
- Gayle – Bid from Fulham for £15m
- Krul – Likely to complete move away from NUFC, linked to Benfica
- Saivet – appears to not be in Rafa’s plans, could return to Ligue 1
The news this morning on Gayle is a bit of a shock after such a good season last year. There are doubts he can deliver at this level though and the fee could be used to bring in the extra quality we need. You would hope though the departure would not be sanctioned until we had a replacement lined up.
Potential arrivals
Let’s look at some of the most recent links for inbound players. Could any of these arrive tomorrow?
- Origi – NUFC have been credited with an interest and Klopp wants regular action for the Belgian striker, seems unlikely at this stage though.
- Perez – Appears to be the most likely option should NUFC pursue a Gayle replacement. Wants out at Arsenal and Rafa is clearly a fan.
- Batshuayi – With Llorente seemingly on his way to Chelsea, could Newcastle pull off this impressive loan signing?
- Kenedy – A loan deal had been agreed but now looks unlikely unless Chelsea add to their squad and can therefore sanction his exit.
- Reina – Long held interest and Rafa wants an experienced keeper. A reunion between the pair may be on the cards as Reina appeared to wave goodbye to fans last week but would a place on PSG’s bench be more appealing than move to the North East?
- Praet – The talented Belgian can play in the number 10 role or right wing but with the asking price at more than £20m, you would expect funds would have to be raised from outgoings to finance this deal. We also face stiff competition from Everton.
There looks set to be many twists and turns over the next few days but let’s hope this window isn’t as disappointing as we fear it is beginning to appear. We need a striker and number 10 as a minimum to give us the best chance of staying up.
Who do you think will leave and who do you want to see arrive?
I went over this the other day mate, I know what you are saying .
kimtoon(Quote)
OK, one more time.
If I buy Apple stock for $1,000 do I care that they owe a bank $500?
If I then sell it at $2,000, do I care if they owed a bank at $500.
If I sold it at $900 (a loss) do I care that they owed a bank $500?
No, I only care if they could not service the debt and not go bust.
Ashley owns NUFC and sets a price in the current market and people pay it or not, assume the debt or not, let him have a part share or not. The debt is not added to the price FFS.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Wrong:
You just went through the process of selling your house. Did the buyer care if you had a mortgage or not or were they only interested in the sale price (I know they reneged, but that is not the point).
And if you sold your place would they assume your mortgage. NO.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stuart
As I’ve said already, much of the debt was due to the stadium work plus a huge amount of money due on outgoing transfer fees that needed to be paid over the first few years of Ashley’s ownership. From what I recall, he made arrangements to pay all of those fees in full immediately because he didn’t want the club to be in debt to other clubs or to the bank. Then he assumed all of the debt as an interest free loan from himself to the club.
Besides, the point that Ashley justifiably wants to recoup his investment in the club to get at least £300m for it, the valuation is still the valuation and is based on the information that is in the accounts, plus the projected income for the club in the next few years.
Purchasing an established PL club with zero debt and a well known brand for £300m-400m doesn’t seem unreasonably considering the ever-increasing revenue that PL clubs make. The question is, who has that kind of money to spend and why would they bother? Especially when it would require extra money to make the investment a ‘success’.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
TDS – He didn’t do any due diligence – that’s his fault.
Stuart79(Quote)
So Rafa didnt turn up for work today??,anybody know why
Icedog(Quote)
Ok one more time.
Where did I say the debt is added to the sales price? You’ve had many opportunities to find it.
Stuart79(Quote)
TDS, maybe we are below the clubs stu mentioned because everyone realises that the owners have ambitions and are trying to pay for quality signings to progress. Everton for example were going nowhere , their fans constantly moaning about Bills lack of investment it was only when investment from outside came in that they really took off, same for all the clubs above who we used to compete with and in some cases be better than. Fact is this owner has no desire to speculate to accumulate while he can do it on the cheap. Covers himself with an interview/PR stunt and admits to mistakes and treating managers badly in hind site, Yet he still continues to treat managers like fools. He didn’t make mistakes, he knows exactly what he is doing as proven by KK’s court case. The minute the abrasive Justin Barnes was brought in the writing was on the wall for Rafa imo.
kimtoon(Quote)
You’re right, that’s his fault. As is getting carried away and sacking Big Sam to appoint Keegan without thinking it through. As is not appointing an experienced person to run his football club.
Not the point though.
He has invested about £300m in the club. Why should he sell it at a loss?
If you bought a house for £135k, then spend another £165k to improve the house including a large sum on fixing things you should have found out about in the survey (like, new roof, sorting damp, subsidence etc.), would you sell for less than £300k unless you had to? If you didn’t need the money and the house wasn’t costing you anything, wouldn’t you just wait until someone offered you the money? Especially when you see that other houses in your street are going for more than that.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
You’re dead right about Everton and I’ve banged that drum for years though. Everton grew sensible and cleverly. So while they were cultivating class youth players like Baines and lauding local stalwarts like Hibbert and Osman, we were slating solid squad players like Dummett, Simpson and Perch and getting relegated twice.
Everton are where they are because they have been in the PL for a long time and have allowed that stability to create a platform to bring youth players through in a stable PL environment and also attract other players to a club that they are confident will still be in the PL in a few years. That’s an attractive investment for someone because they can see that the groundwork has been laid and they can invest to take them to the next level. Everton are now better than they’ve been for 20 years or more.
So what would be deemed a success for NUFC? How much money would need to be invested to make us a regular feature in the top 10 and maybe pushing for a Europa League place? Lots of money! And if we were there, would the vocal fans see that as a success? Or would they still be complaining that the likes of Everton and Southampton are finishing above us and we’re still miles away from the CL places? What would be seen as a success for NUFC in 5 years time?
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
He had a medical appointment mate, previously booked
kimtoon(Quote)
I will find it if you want but I would have to go through thousands of comments. You did say it though.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
And stop texting when you are droving.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Driving, sorry. And make a joke now and again and don’t be so serious all of the time.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
NOW THE CHRONIC ARE MAD.
After sh!tting ***** for 2 months with nothing to back it up.
After they said they had connections to NUFC, ITK ya knaa, like.
Ryder and Waugh, now they are arsed?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Tds. it’s not the Everton’s, Saints of the league being above us that pisses me off, it’s the Palace’s , Brightons and Huddersfields investing more cash and backing their managers more than us. The set up and training facilities at Brighton are fantastic, did you see it on Sky sports the other week when they were there all day. How are such a small club doing such a better job with facilities than us?
I tell you what, I have been trying to get the third kit top for the lads birthday, it is sold out everywhere and in times past you could ring the club shop for updates on when it’s back in stock. Now it’s all through sports direct and NO phone number just an email with suggested headings, none of which are appropriate and no way to put your own one in either !
Back in the day I would just phone the shop up and speak to a human being but he’s closed all the stores. I asked in sports direct about the shirt, some brain dead youth looked at me like I had a sprout growing out my ear and muttered that they never know what’s coming into the store.
Shabby fun business and shabby run club.
kimtoon(Quote)
https://twitter.com/NUFC360?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
exactly
kimtoon(Quote)
Kim
The thing is with Brighton is that they have a nice fancy new stadium, so it all comes with that. And did they really invest more than us this summer? Both clubs promoted so the revenue isn’t too different and I bet we have a much higher wage bill, including loads of players on PL wages that we spent ages trying to shift off the books. I bet the Brighton players that they didn’t want were on about £10kpw. Ours were on £40kpw or more!
Palace have been in the PL for a few years but who did they sign that was any good? Did they get Sakho in the end? Cost a hell of a lot of money and he was on loan there last year so that’s just to stay where they were. Huddersfield’s best signing seems to be Mooy and he was on loan there last year too. Mounie has started well, but many players like that have, only to be found out after a few games and tail off.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
cheers Kim
icedog(Quote)
Kim Hitler had supporters,Trump has supporters,jabba has NONE
icedog(Quote)
free agent LB cover possibility
https://twitter.com/MsiDouglas/status/903627102301421568
kimtoon(Quote)
Waaaaaaah???? I thought the transfer window nonsense was over! Now we have to read articles about signing **** players on free transfers because we didn’t get a 3rd choice LB from Southampton??? Noooo…
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Kim – re the third kit.
I spoke to a sports direct assistant some weeks ago about this. She bravely told me that the third kit top had been a lot more popular than they expected and that they had expected the second strip to be the better seller. She told me that they were delaying taking more third strip kit stock because they needed to shift a good number of second strips.
She did say they should get new stock in September -so you may be able to get one soon.
sidekick(Quote)
Who was he anyway. A Targett? What!!!
Eric Sykes(Quote)
One more time….
If you can explain to me Stewie how you decide a net value and a gross value are the same thing then I will leave it there.
You are business owner. I do financial planning for a living. So, explain……!!!!!!
Eric Sykes(Quote)
@Stuart
Hi, I’m new to this blog. I’m sorry if I’m being lazy but I’m short on time.
You’ve probably posted already but how much do you calculate Rafa should have at his disposal?
Troy Stavers(Quote)
I think it was just paper talk anyway, so they could write easy headlines…
“NUFC miss the Targett”
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
He does though ice and that’s the problem. All this in the 125 anniversary year too.
kimtoon(Quote)
If you want me to find what you said I will find it. I have a Jack Russell and I will look for him for guidance. They never give up.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
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Replying to @NUFC360
For context: Ashley currently values #NUFC as more than Inter Milan, Roma, Napoli, Everton and many others. £450m = 16th in world.
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NUFC 360 @NUFC360 · 19m19 minutes ago
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Replying to @NUFC360
The Guardian believe MA’s ridiculous asking price of over £450m (nearly double the value of Southampton) is putting off potential buyers.
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NUFC 360 @NUFC360 · 20m20 minutes ago
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Replying to @NUFC360
Here he is, on the right. The man who “puts the boot in” for Mike Ashley, according to the Times. #NUFC
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NUFC 360 @NUFC360 · 23m23 minutes ago
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Replying to @NUFC360
He has been brought in to find a buyer, but there are none. The “abrasive but trusted” lieutenant of Ashley is now in charge at #NUFC
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NUFC 360 @NUFC360 · 24m24 minutes ago
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Justin Barnes now “runs things” at #NUFC and kept the pursestrings tight this summer, according to the Telegraph
kimtoon(Quote)
Did somebody hijack your log-in? I always thought you said we could only get an average manager like Pardew? At least that’s what the other Troysta said . Then Arrogant Alan was fired by Palace.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Who is an Ashley supporter? Surely nobody thinks that he’s actually doing a good job! I’m certainly not an Ashley fan, I think he’s an awful fit for the club. But I think there are even worse alternatives!
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
@Psychs
Wow! It’s that long ago I can’t remember what I wrote but all I do know I’ve never been wrong, so from your post, I know you are wrong. ?
Troy Stavers(Quote)
How does anyone know how much Ashley values the club at? And where is the evidence at how much the Southampton owner value Southampton?
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
@Psychs
You might be able to answer. How much do you believe Rafa had at his disposal based on Ashley comments. ?
Troy Stavers(Quote)
Glad to see you back Troysta.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Why should he sell at a loss? He shouldn’t. I never said he should.
Stuart79(Quote)
TDS
Ashley owns more than a personal possession. He owns a North East institution that folk spend their lives following. (Read Bobbys famous quote about NUFC)
He’s got every right to run the club the way he is unless someone or group are prepared to buy the club who are capable of taking us to a better level and if there is a person or group, he should sell it for the money he paid for it.
His incompetence lost us a fortune by getting us relegated twice and costing him a fortune. The fans shouldn’t suffer for that.
He can always do what he wants but morally he has a responsibility.
Troy Stavers(Quote)
So if he sells at a profit, he will demand at least £300m. So a starting asking price of £400m doesn’t seem unreasonable if he wants to make some profit right?
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Stuart
How much ?
Troy Stavers(Quote)
Who knows. But with season ticket sales, new (record shirt sponsorship) and increased TV money you would have to assume it was at least £50m baring in mind the first tranche of the money was received in July which was £35m.
Stuart79(Quote)
Sorry, I forgot the profit made from last summer too, Troy. Probably more.
Stuart79(Quote)
There’s a reason why it’s not been sold, TDS. now I would assume it’s the asking price. So £400m isn’t a great place to start because it’s still on the market and he’s never been close to selling it.
Stuart79(Quote)
https://twitter.com/NUFC_Index?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
kimtoon(Quote)
Still waiting…
Stuart79(Quote)
Troy
Ashley is a businessman and you want him to behave like a NUFC fan and write off about £160m worth of loans and sell the club for £135m? That’s just unrealistic.
And the amount he paid into the club is around £300m. Not just the amount he paid for it, but the amount of debt that he paid off that was already on the club and the amount he loaned to the club to deal with being relegated twice.
I didn’t see our previous chairman accepting blame for things and taking a hit when he sold the club either. In fact I saw him taking huge interest on loans and also paying himself a huge amount of money every year.
No point in expecting Ashley to act totally out of character.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
What about Pards 🙂
Eric Sykes(Quote)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/09/01/mike-ashley-old-tricks-newcastle-rafa-benitez-not-type-grin/
Brilliant comment piece
Stuart79(Quote)
Give me a day or 2 Skwiggy. I know you said it, bit I can’t be bothered to look it up. You know, I just cant be bothered to prove you wrong. Because I know you are wrong.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Very good, Eric. I’ll come back and ask again next season.
Stuart79(Quote)
🙂
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stuart
You’d imagine that every asset has its price, but there’s no evidence that Ashley is touting the club around for sale is there really?
Do you think he’d refuse an offer of £350m?
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
People at the club say Justin Barnes is there to get it ready for a sale.
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart
I read that Justin Barnes is there to keep control of the finances in case there was an opportunity to sell. That’s a bit different from getting it ready to sell. I’m pretty sure that Ashley would say yes if someone offered £350m, so I think he put Justin Barnes in just to make sure that the club didn’t overstretch and put off any potential buyers.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Stupid stories about Rafa going to West Ham. And who did they buy? A goalie that virtually nobody seemed to want, a hot-head erratic attacker for loadsamoney that got himself sent off, a past-it RB from City and a goal poacher who played most of his career as a super-sub to be their main striker.
They haven’t done great business in the transfer window either in my view. And there are lots of issues with the new stadium that seem to be causing issues.
Can’t see it happening.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
I’m sure Lee Charnley could have made sure the club didn’t “overstretch” he’s done it for the last 5 years. Barnes’ presence is significant in my opinion.
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart
I’m not convinced by your figures.
I’m guessing so you have an advantage if you aren’t, but I’m assuming from your response you are guessing with your figures, the TV money is not paid until the end of the season having been newly promoted.
I was estimating the max he would have is £20-£30m.
Rafa has never complained about the transfer dealings publicly, ie the way the negotiations were conducted, but he has implied the money was not as much as he thought.
I don’t believe for a second that the kitty was as low as £11m but we all know the transfer fees are not the only financial aspect the club look at when buying a player, so you could probably add another £11m onto that figure for the full contracts.
I’m sure you’ll tell me I’m wrong but you are only speculating as I am.
Troy Stavers(Quote)
By the way, on the budget, I actually think the money is there but it just wasn’t spent. That’s worse.
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart
Hey, if Ashley is gearing the club up for sale, I think we’d all be happy right?
Charnley is running the club on a day to day basis though. I understand that Barnes is more of a finance guy. Makes sense for someone to keep things on track. But yeah, I’d be delighted if there’s a genuine interest from a buyer who wants to spend money. I still think it takes a rare sort to want to take us to the next level as it will cost a fortune. But it’s not impossible…
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
No actually, Troy I’m not guessing in some aspects. We know the shirt sponsorship was more than any other in our history. The club told us. The first tranche of TV money was paid in July – fact. We sold players and brought significant funds in last summer and this summer combined.
Not that much guess work really.
Stuart79(Quote)
TDS
I still don’t think Freddie was as bad as you imply.
He made bad choices on managers but he had the right idea about backing them. (Most of the time)
Troy Stavers(Quote)
TDS – I am told (by excellent source, who actually does a lot of work at the club) that Barnes is running the show now. He has been since January. Everything needs to be signed off by him.
But you’re right about being happy if he sold. You say it takes a special sort, you’re right but most football clubs in the PL are owned by that kind of person so given our potential and the money involved these days £300-£350m is reasonable. I’m not sure Ashley will take it though.
Stuart79(Quote)
When Ashley said that Rafa could spend all of the money that the club generated from general revenue and player sales, I think he meant it. I think he meant that all of the profit generated from the club could go towards players.
The problem is that some of that money had to be allocated towards paying the wages of players that Rafa didn’t even want. Now the transfer board categorically failed to shift those players out early enough and reduce the wage bill. Had they done that, then the budget for incoming deals would have increased.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Stuart
Who is to blame for not spending the kitty?
My understanding Rafa had full control over the kitty.
Rafa has only implied he wasn’t happy with amount.
Troy Stavers(Quote)
Eric
What was your question? ?
Troy Stavers(Quote)
TDS – It wasn’t about money with Rafa. The club have dragged their feet with every transfer and have missed out on targets due to being petty and slow. The club simply haven’t spent everything that was available. That’s the problem – not that he wanted more.
Stuart79(Quote)
Incorrect. Rafa was in charge of identifying the players, not getting the deals done. He was given a budget and the players identified bared that budget in mind. Rafa was never doing the actual deals and never has.
Stuart79(Quote)
I think Freddie was a little greedy with the money he took out of the club and I don’t think he’s a particularly nice person either, but I think he’s a proper fan who did want the club to do well. I’m not sure I can forgive him for sacking Bobby though…I’ll never understand that.
ToonDarnSarf(Quote)
Good to see you Trotsta. Now someone can be wrong 150% of the time again (is that even possible, Ed.) rather than 99% like Stewie.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stuart
All of the above are reasonable points but when you say the shirt sponsorship was more than any of ours in the past, that doesn’t really mean much as compared to most clubs it’s average.
We have outlays and last season in the championship we had the 7 th biggest wage bill in the top two leagues.
I still maintain my guesstimate is as good as your guesstimate.
Troy Stavers(Quote)
Stuart: my real last name is Stewart so I get called all sorts of different versions of Stew, Stewie, Stu-ster. So I hope I didn’t offend you 🙂
Eric Sykes(Quote)
I’m going to put money on Paul Lambert being out next manager.
Stuart79(Quote)
TDS
That takes us away from the original point made.
Whatever you think of any owner, if a buyer is out there that can take the club onto a better level then the present owner should accept the price they paid for the club or investment they made if they left it in a healthy state.
Troy Stavers(Quote)
I’ve been called worse ?
Stuart79(Quote)
Troy – You’re basing that assumption on Ashley having NUFC’s best interests at heart. He hasn’t.
Stuart79(Quote)