Takeover talk again came to fore this weekend when Amanda Staveley was pictured as a guest of the club during the 1-1 draw with Liverpool. Conflicting reports have emerged, with suggestions that Staveley was attending in a ‘deal-broker’ capacity for some of her middle Eastern contacts; while other reports state she may want to buy the club herself.
Either way, her attendance was intriguing and reports have now confirmed that talks did in fact take place following Sunday’s game.
Her background is in financial deal brokering, where she famously helped broker the deal for Manchester City’s current billionaire owners. She also led a failed attempt to purchase Liverpool in 2008, which would have seen her on the board. She clearly has an interest in football, whether she is looking to make money by brokering a takeover or pushing one for herself.
So, with takeover talk dominating the NUFC headlines, just how would a takeover or partial investment work?
A partial investment
One option would be for a consortium to invest into Newcastle and purchase something like a 10-20% stake in the club. Ashley apparently values the club at roughly £400m, which is one the factors that is holding up a full sale. Taking these numbers as ball park figures, this would equate to £40-80m coming into the club for a smaller stake in ownership.
This is similar to the agreement Manchester city with Chinese consortium, CMC, last year. They purchased a 13% stake for an eye watering £265m. Of course City is a more valuable financial proposition for investors than NUFC. An interesting angle is that Manchester City is already owned by billionaires who have no desire to sell the club currently. So why sell a stake? Quite simply, for mutual financial benefit. The owners felt the Chinese market had a lot of untapped potential for them, as despite overtaking Manchester United on the pitch, commercially, they remain behind. A partnership can give you contacts and new sponsorship deals in a new region.
Something similar may be being discussed with Newcastle. Chinese investors have been linked with Newcastle and it appears an unlikely coincidence we have also just announced our commercial sponsorship partnership with Chinese firm FUN88. Ashley may well be discussing a similar deal to that of Manchester City behind the scenes, with some of Stavely’s contacts in the middle East also in the mix. This would mean investment in the club for new players potentially, whilst ensuring little day to day change. Purchasing this smaller percentage from Ashley would mean all major decisions, like hiring managers and overall budgets, would still firmly rest with him.
Buying a major stake
Another investment option would be for a group to purchase a far larger stake, something that would certainly have greater ramifications on how the club is run day to day. A comparable example to this would be the situation at Everton, with billionaire Farhad Moshiri buying a 49.9% stake in the club in early 2016. It was notably just under the 51% to be the majority owner but a high enough stake that he has assumed major responsibilities away from Bill Kenwright.
By all accounts, this has provided Everton with real financial muscle. Lukaku was signed for £28m with a further spending due on the cards this summer. Of course, not all owners will invest so much in new players as Newcastle fans of course know. However, it does represent an example that if Ashley was to sell a stake of this level it would mean a change in the running of the club and significant power sitting with any potential investors. The higher the percentage bought from Ashley, the more vital the intentions of investors is.
What do investors want in return?
It is important to consider that the goal of investments is to make a return or profit on your initial outlay. Owners can buy clubs with the idea of improving the club and not necessarily making any money from it (Man City and Chelsea are clear examples.) So if someone wanted to buy Newcastle and turn them into a superpower with the clubs interests solely at heart, they would probably attempt to buy the club outright.
Investors will likely see the new TV deal as a chance to grow their own business by having an association with Newcastle United. Of course it is in their interests the club does well, as success on the pitch leads to higher prize money and a better brand. But depending on the deal struck with Ashley, investors taking a smaller stake may want a cut of profits, a percentage of sales in a new market, such as China, or reassurances when they will get their investment back – with interest, at a set date.
Do timescales differ from a full takeover?
A full takeover certainly takes longer. This is due to having to pass fit and proper owner tests from the Premier league and also a more detailed process of due diligence over the clubs books. Investment would theoretically be sorted at a quicker rate and more importantly, should not impact on player trading this January. Unless it raises capital for new players, which would be great news.
Like many fans, I was starting to think under the Ashley it was very much ‘better the devil you know’. That was until this summer, where such a pathetic net spend was a final straw. We are lucky Rafa has stayed so far, but we need a new owner to match his ambitions and one who’s priority is improving the team on the pitch. Let’s hope this fresh talk has some credence to it.
Would you welcome a change in ownership or is it a case of better the devil you know?
Some good news for Eric. Carvers in line for the Gateshead job.
Terry(Quote)
Simon I would like Ashley to sell up really I would. Knowing Ashley he’ll probably get drunk and not attend the meeting
Terry(Quote)
If Amanda Stavely had seen wearside Colback play on sunday it would probably be deal over.
Stem(Quote)
The ginger nugget will be gone in January, mock my words.
Stem(Quote)
As for take over I really don’t know at this stage. She was at the last home game against Stoke so one can only hope she saves us from this turd.
Stem(Quote)
Eric is a big fan of John Carver, Terry 😀 8 defeats in a row best manager in the PL.
Stem(Quote)
Sorry Ice that wearside Jack comment was for you mate.
Stem(Quote)
Allegedly Prince Andrew once proposed to her. I’d suggest she makes a ‘fit and proper’ owner far better than fatso does!
Better the Devil you know? Shame on you. Two relegations, almost three narrowly avoided and does everything for his own benefit not the Club, never mind the buffoons he has landed us with during his decade here.
Can’t wait to see the back of the parasite. A full takeover from her would appear the dream outcome given her relative local status (family is from Ripon) and access to wealth. No one in their right mind would surely want to partner Ashley, especially without the majority holding.
sickandtired(Quote)
Noted mate 😆
Icedog(Quote)
Ime just hoping it’s a buy out and not a investment,jabba is such snide wouldn’t trust him with his own mother
Icedog(Quote)
Sickandtired I totally agree with you. I want to see a new owner with ambition free us from this turd. I don’t expect 100’s of millions to be spent on players although it would be nice. I just want a proper striker at the club. Demba was a fluke free transfer that could of easily back fired. He has denied us a experienced striker even thou he got 35 million from AC.
Stem(Quote)
I read somewhere Amanda Stavely is net worth is only 110 million. So how would this work ?
Stem(Quote)
If Amanda Stavely is the lead with a buyout she must surely recruit one or more of the middle eastern states as a major backer with a major profile in the deal. With PSG and Man City these wealth funds and sheikhs are as much interested in whitewashing their image by association with a Western Brand. Sure they want to diversify out of oil but they also want to be seen as normal when their regimes are anything but (Saudi women allowed to drive last week).
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Stem: you would have to worry if there is major debt funding involved. That’s the way the Glazers took over Man U and it was 5 years before they made any significant player investment.
There are success stories with takeovers by wealthy foreign individuals and states such as Chelsea and Man City but there are many, many failures. I listed a few the other day but will just say VENKYS for now.
The successes seem to be when the new owner is so wealthy that they can ride out a transition period and put in new funding to push on as the Brand becomes stronger and more commercial revenue is generated. It doesn’t seem to work when the commitment is half arsed and I would be very worried if it was funded with loans as a lot of the TV money would go to service the debt before we thought about player recruitment.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Her company has $28b at their disposal. It’s her job to invest it.
Stuart79(Quote)
Stuart: so she is basically running a 28 billion hedge fund on behalf of middle eastern entities? Do you know who they are? That would suggest that her investments in a football club would be for an investment return.
My view on the Sovereign Wealth Funds takeovers of Man City and PSG were that 1) they were awash with money and wanted to put it somewhere interesting 2) they wanted reflected glory on their state 3) to distract from their humanitarian abuses 4) as a plaything for a Prince – how many prize stallions and gold plated toilets does one need?
Eric Sykes(Quote)
There better be fruit on the tree of this investment talk.
KIMTOON(Quote)
Well talk in Arab news is if she can agree with jabba a price it could move quick and be done by December,wow wouldn’t that be a shot in the arm for fans
Icedog(Quote)
Eric, you can’t beat crapping on a gold plated carsey mate 😉
KIMTOON(Quote)
this is where the **** sours the milk by getting greedy, or insisting on keeping his tat signs everywhere. 🙄
KIMTOON(Quote)
She would take her place at the club.not just brokering a deal and will be backed from Middle East money,Ime just worried jabba will blow it like he did with the crowd that bought M/City
Icedog(Quote)
Talk it’s Saudi money
Icedog(Quote)
So Stuart: you are saying it is simply an allocation of capital on behalf of her “hedge fund”? I thought they were saying she was doing it on her own? Perhaps funded using the hedge fund money as a pure investment?
I know it is all speculation but I think it is much more likely that we will see funds for players if there is a direct link and publicity for a Sovereign State or Royal Family.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Ice: I don’t think the Saudi’s own a team yet and they are awash with money. The Royal Family has many, many members with their on investible funds so it wouldn’t have to be a Sovereign Wealth Fund, maybe just a plaything for someone who is super-rich like with Abramovich.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
To be honest, I don’t think anybody knows. I’ve seen reports that she was doing it via her company with financial backing which would suggest it’s a leveraged buyout but also on behalf of other people.
Having said that, I don’t believe anybody buys a football club without an expectation of a return on their investment. In Qatar and Abu Dabi’s case they also get the benefit of promoting their countries. But ultimately if they sold in the next few years they’d be pretty close to getting their money back and add to that the promotion of their countries and companies I’m sure it would be a gain for them.
Stuart79(Quote)
I would say Saudi money is the likely source. They’re not involved in football, are very much a football nation (in that region and have been to world cups), have a huge wealth fund that they’re staying to diversify their investment away from oil and there’s a lot of neighbourly competitiveness in that region. I think the Saudi’s are trying to promote their country while they try to “modernise” well in their eyes anyway.
Stuart79(Quote)
I think it is probably the Saudis as well. They are football mad. They have had a lot of deserved bad publicity for their abuse of women and minorities, public floggings anyone! They have also supported religious extremists although they have so many friends in high places in the West that that gets swept under the Persian rug. Would we have to hold our nose and accept it? It seems that’s what Citeh and PSG fans are doing.
Give Rafa 200 million and he would challenge for top four.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-41499165
That may affect any takeover.
shamrock(Quote)
And if you challenge for top four it becomes a snowball effect – the prize money increases, the status increases, the sponsorship deals get better, you play in Europe, the commercial revenue increases, you can attract better players etc.
This was the Citeh blueprint but it took them 8 years to get there, and I think they are now. That probably had a bit to do with hiring Mark Hughes to start with and they have had very good managers before but not a great Manager until Pep.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Has to laugh at Terry Mac says Jose said he’s the special but Rafa is the great one
Icedog(Quote)
Not good news mate, talk about poor timing, that’s what’ll happen when you have a crooked snake for an owner. Wouldn’t trust him or his cronies to the end of the street.
KIMTOON(Quote)
What about West ham, were they not raided too ?, no doubt Baroness Brady’s friends at Westminster will have a quiet word with HMRC.
KIMTOON(Quote)
Not sure, Sham. Might be complicated. This might effect MASH Holdings as the ultimate owner of NUFC. Any new buyers might just be buying the assets and any tax charge stays with the holding company. But then again I have no ide how it’s all set up.
Stuart79(Quote)
And for the record, I don’t give a rats **** on a moral basis if it’s a Middle Eastern country. We can tell them how we think it’s best to run a society but we can’t force it on them. That’s up to them.
Stuart79(Quote)
The worry for me is that they said there is an indication of criminality. If that is proven and it it is confirmed that involved fraudulent payments to agents involved in the transfer of footballers to this football club, then we could be looking at a fine (probably manageable), or a transfer ban (a problem for potential buyers for the club and the future of the club at such a tentative stage of our PL re-establishment.
shamrock(Quote)
I agree. We should not be getting involved in other cultures and forcing our ideals upon them. That is for their own people to address. The UK, Spain, France, US etc all had their own uprisings at one point or another, when their people had had enough and had the will to force change for themselves. It has to come naturally. We have seen with Iraq and Syria what happens when you try to force change on a culture that is not ready for it.
There are tines when the people need a leg up mind, but that has to be assessed very carefully.
Saudi Arabia is not one if those countries though, in my opinion.
So in that respect I too do not care if the Saudi’s buy the club.
shamrock(Quote)
Or maybe a points penalty which our stage would take us down maybe,saving grace could be W/Ham being invoked they get away with most stuff
Icedog(Quote)
Involved
Icedog(Quote)
Cheers for the article on media and pundit bias against us Olly. You probably know this is a particular bugaboo of mine, the twin bias against NUFC and in favour of Liverpool in particular. With Rafa being so well respected I thought this might change but it is obviously too entrenched.
What Olly wrote was that Adrian Durham was crowing that we would not go up as Champions and then when we did he said it was nothing more than was expected. I know we were favourites but how often do favourites fail. Man U were preseason favourites to win the PL last year and finished 5th.
So, if it is so easy what is happening to the teams that went down with us and the ones that went down last year. These pundits never get any perspective, they just spout off without thinking. After 11 games:
Villa 7th
Norwich 9th
Boro 11th
Hull 17th
Sunderland 23rd
These teams all have parachute payments. Villa and Norwich get about 35 million this year and the relegated teams get about 40 million. That really should put them head and shoulders above teams who have been in the Championship for a while who get bout 2.5 million.
So, under Adrian Durham’s assumptions they should all be expected to be promoted even though there are only 3 spots 🙂
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Funny watching Liverpool fans on Twitter. They say that if Amanda Stavely buys Newcastle and gives Rafa a load of cash we’d be challenging for the league in two years and they might as well give up trying to compete… They also reckon she’s interested in buying Liverpool though…
Stuart79(Quote)
It’s a criminal case not a FA case. So basically the FA can’t dock any points or put a transfer embargo on a club if it’s a criminal case. I’m pretty sure anyway. Likelihood is we will get a whopping great tax bill. Failure to pay will result in a winding up order like Rangers ect
Stuart79(Quote)
I have misgivings about the Saudis but I also have massive misgivings about the politicians in the country I live in now. I just had to throw something in about their human rights record and support for terrorists. The USA is responsible for much of the mess and if we get taken over by Saudis I will stay clear of the politics and religion of that region. It is impossible to understand and fix anyway.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Hope your right on the points subject mate,guess the transfer money will go to pay the fine then Stu,hopefully
Icedog(Quote)
Yep there is that as well mate, or a combination of those options….
shamrock(Quote)
Get Harry Rednapp’s lawyer.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
But if there have been dodgy deals involving transfers of players then surely the FA would get involved and dock us points or something ?
KIMTOON(Quote)
It appears the HMRC’s case is based on NUFC paying an agent with the knowledge that some of the money would be passed to other agents. Good look proving that. HMRC really are a shambles.
Stuart79(Quote)
40 points for safety.
10 points from 7 games.
So a quarter of the points met
From less than a fifth of the games played.
Looking good, even with a squad that has lacked an ideal level of investment.
shamrock(Quote)
Yeah they would, once it has been proved.
shamrock(Quote)
Good point. I doubt any of that would be written down.
shamrock(Quote)
be just our luck to get to 40 points plus and the FA dock us points 🙄
KIMTOON(Quote)
One good thing this time round on buy outs nobody has refuted the talk of it which imo is a good start
Icedog(Quote)
Kim that would be just are luck mate. I really hope it doesn’t come to that mate. Graham Carr probably tapped Sunderland up for wearside Jack or something. I really hope it doesn’t ruin are chances of a take over which it most probably will. This is what happen’s when you have a turd owner.
Stem(Quote)
How the hell did Pogba’s Agent get paid 30 million legally?
NUFC.com have a summary of what the case is. The players involved are Ba and the Mondial players for the most part and it was Lliambas and Charnley in charge. With a good lawyer I think it will be back taxes, a small fine and a slap on the wrist.
If there is a buy-out I doubt Charnley will survive anyway. That would be the final severing of all ties to the Fat Man. Rafa is his own man and I think they do not see him as an Ashley yes man/puppet.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
BBC article on tax case:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-41499165
Says that it is an investigation into a 5 million pound tax fraud involving NUFC and West Ham and a 1.9 million payment to Ba’s Agent.
This will drag on and even if they lose the case it won’t be a lot of money.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Eric – when you considering the tax dodging actually going on in the U.K. It beggars belief they’ve put so much effort into this. But it’s a good bit of PR and that’s what HMRC are all about.
Stuart79(Quote)
Im really pleased to see that the potential promise of bags full of Saudi dollars is all that is needed for fans to look the other way in regards to the behaviors of the Saudi rulers.
Wow, some peoples morals fall to the wayside easily when there is money involved.
Just imagine if Ashley had splashed the cash.. he would be lauded on here as a saint! ???
Aussie(Quote)
A lot of good points made by several people on here about the HMRC investigation but it seems to me there’s also a small practical issue that may cause a problem.
When the Revenue and Customs people raided the club back in April they seized a lot of business and financial records, as well as a number of computers and mobile phones (although presumably they haven’t been entitled to examine any of them until the outcome of this latest High Court ruling). I’m just wondering if any prospective buyer is going to find it difficult to conduct the required level of due diligence if some of the financial or other records that they need to examine aren’t currently available.
Chris G(Quote)
Chris, I think a lot of the stuff taken was returned after the club challenged the legality of the amount and type of stuff seized and won .
KIMTOON(Quote)
ERIC i have just run my fix me stick,and my laptop is clean,they then sent me a email to be aware of a new virus its being past through downloads of nexflix films,it is speading all over the states in the USA,its not yet affecting netflix in the UK but be sure to keep a watch,dont kow if you use it but thought i would let you know mate
icedog(Quote)
I’ve always felt the same about Middle Eastern countries. It’s irrelevant whether one of them buys NUFC. It’s not for us to impose our way of life on other countries anymore. We tried that in Iraq – that went well didn’t it…
Stuart79(Quote)
Sounds good Aussie doesn’t it? Saint Mike Ashley. Patron Saint of Fireplace Vomit.
georgio(Quote)
That is a total cop out Stuart.. shall we turn a blind eye to regimes that oppress its people? For every Iraq there is a Rwanda. The Saudis don’t get a pass from me because they may buy us some success. It will be soured before it begins.
Aussie(Quote)
?? Ashley – saint liar of keegan
Aussie(Quote)
I have to be honest, I don’t know how I feel about all of this take over talk. I’m obviously not happy with the lack of investment under Ashley and it’s been far from an enjoyable decade at SJP.
Of course I want to experience those glory days at Newcastle again, Keegan came in shortly after I started following NUFC so after maybe 4-5yrs of gash, I had some great experiences with the club. But I felt part of that. It was with the fans at the forefront. It was done to grow NUFC as a global brand – not to use NUFC to grow other brands (and I know Ashley has done that too). But I see that happening on a far greater scale in the Middle East money comes in. What price to rename SJP? – I believe it will happen.
How long before they impress their wants on Rafa – I’m thinking pre-season in particular. Rafa seems to like taking the lads to Ireland – how’s he going to react to the owners wanting us in pre-season tournaments out in the Middle East or the US or wherever. How will he react when the owners start deciding who we sign for commercial reasons over his footballing reasons.
I know it’s the way of modern day football, and if we want to keep up with the tops clubs it has to happen.
I know there will be pros & cons in any scenario. I also know that how I want NUFC ran will never happen under Ashley. But I can help worrying a little that the arrival of Middle East money, could well see NUFC loose some of its identity.
Sharpy17(Quote)
Sharpy, the club will lose all of its identity. I will be an entity that will belong to the glory hungry swinging supporters that will jump aboard the cash rich juggernaut.
We will become the epl’s Golden State Warriors. .
Aussie(Quote)
I don’t know Aussie, Man City have not changed their identity after an Arab takeover – they are as miserable as ever! They used to be miserable when they lost to Peterboro now they sulk when they lose to Arsenal because they expect to win. And that fcking Posnan thing. What a bunch of tw@ts. They have games in Europe against teams that are not the elite and only half fill their ground. They complain about finishing 2nd in the PL and moan about their manager. Maybe its a Manchester thing because their neighbours do the same, but maybe its a plastics glory hunter thing.
I have liked watching them play this year and think they will win the PL and possibly the CL. But I am not a fan and know that if they don’t win one or both their “fans” will moan, moan, moan. And if they are not winning 3-0 at half time their fans start to get tetchy and restless. Entitled W@nkers.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Aussie – I know to some fans (like Sunderland for example) this would seem like a tremendous prospect – I use Sunderland coz I work with some who are devastated with their current predicament (obviously) but only see us pulling further away from them if this takeover/investment happens.
I know you can never get the past back, and things more on & you always want it to be for the better – and it certainly hasn’t been under Ashley. But I don’t look at the likes of City with envy. I don’t want to be a club that throws £1 billion at a manager and have players earning half a million a week – that side of the game is disgusting IMO. The players like Mata get lauded up for setting up a charity asking mega rich footballer to donate 1% of their wages to charity – wow, feel the pinch.
I do look at Spurs with envy though. If we could do it any way, that’s how I’d want to do it. They develop and bring young talent through the ranks. Yes they spend big on the players they can’t develop, but they bring their own through as well – that’s how I’d want NUFC ran.
Sharpy17(Quote)
I agree with Aussie that we should not turn a blind eye to the Saudis but this is not a political forum. I live in a country that invaded the wrong country (Iraq) and I am in the middle of a Trumpnado where the narcissist/nepotist in chief is dismantling the good bits about Government, cutting healthcare for 26 million people, expanding the military again, allowing anybody to buy a machine gun (46 of them in Vegas) and giving away all of the money to the richest 1%. So, I will steer clear of sweeping political statements about Saudis for now.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
Sharpy: cheer me up mate. Please give me a summary of what the Mackems you work with are saying.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
All I know is who ever takes over the club, they have to show some ambition. I am sick of us falling behind the likes of Stoke, West Brom , Saints and the like. We have the stadia, the fan base, god knows the passion but precious little ambition from our owner .
Am I happy with the thought of Saudi money, not really but it’s the way of the world in football now and we either get on board or miss out altogether by looks of it.
I do know that I’m not happy with the current ownership and as for better the devil you know, forget it, I’m done with the guy, too many chances, no improvement.
KIMTOON(Quote)
I see everyone is whipping themselves up into a frenzy about the England game even though there is likely to be an exciting front line of Rashford, Sterling and Kane. But there is Henderson, Dier and Ox in midfield which could possibly be the worst in English history.
Looking forward to a great atmosphere spurred on by the Tossers with Trumpets. Isn’t it great that we now have a drummer at SJP to create an atmosphere. If I was in a seat around him I would shove it up his ****.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
So, it will be 50,000 fans and 50,000 renditions of The Great Escape tune, most of whom were recaptured and killed BTW.
Eric Sykes(Quote)
FFS! Do I care whether other countries are being cruel to their citizens? Yes. But do I care enough to dictate to them what they should or shouldn’t do? No. We have our own problems here. Anybody on a moral crusade go and do something about it. People like Aussie will sit behind their laptop spouting anti human rights nonsense while doing exactly nothing about it. The end!
Sharpy – if you are bothered about what being successful might bring then I suggest you forget about football and take up fishing.
Stuart79(Quote)
And, after we qualify from the easiest group ever I expect Stavers to say we have such a great young team we will reach the semis. With that midfield we will not get out of the group in Russia and I obviously don’t know who will even be in the group yet.
The England game is on live here so I might watch it but the real matches to watch are Argentina/Peru and Chile/Ecuador.
Eric Sykes(Quote)