It’s been a rollercoaster ride at Newcastle United over the past few seasons. From expected relegation under Steve Bruce, to Eddie Howe keeping us up comfortably and achieving an incredible top-four finish in his first full season in charge.
In truth, we overachieved last term. It was a season where everything clicked. New signings excelled, our key players stayed fit, few knew how to cope with our high-intensity, St James’ Park was a fortress and our defence rock solid as we ended the campaign with the joint fewest goals conceded for 2022/23.
This season has been very different. We’ve actually scored more, surpassing the 68 netted last season in five games fewer, but injuries have been a constant factor, leaving a smaller pool of players to cope with congested fixture list and the fatigue that followed. At the back, we’ve been a shadow of last season and our away form particularly poor, with the recent defeat at Crystal Palace our 10th loss on the road.
However, there is still a lot to play for and a big opportunity to make this turbulent season a success. With five games to play and three points separating ourselves and Man Utd in sixth, where will we finish the 2023/24 campaign?
‘Making accurate season predictions in the Premier League is no easy task, with the level of competition and unpredictability making forecasts highly speculative.’ admit prediction specialists from Casino Alpha. However, Newcastle United’s recent history provides some helpful context.
Last season, we finished an impressive fourth in the table, significantly improving our 11th-place finish for 2021/22. This upward trajectory, combined with the club’s continued investment in the squad, has many backing Newcastle to qualify for Europe once again’ albeit the Europa League or Europa Conference League this time around.
So, what is the state of play? Below, we detail the current standings from sixth to ninth and the remaining fixtures for Newcastle, Man Utd, Chelsea and West Ham; the four main contenders for the European places.
Premier League standings
- 6th: Man Utd – 53 points / +1 GD (33 games played)
- 7th: Newcastle – 50 points / +15 GD (33 games played)
- 8th: West Ham – 48 points / -9 GD (34 games played)
- 9th: Chelsea – 47 points / +4 GD (32 games played)
Remaining fixtures
Man Utd – Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (H), Brighton (A)
Newcastle – Sheffield United (H), Burnley (A), Brighton (H), Man Utd (A), Brentford (A)
West Ham – Liverpool (H), Chelsea (A), Luton (H), Man City (A)
Chelsea – Aston Villa (A), Tottenham (H), West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H)
As you can see, West Ham have only four remaining games – and three of them are against ‘big six’ sides, Newcastle and Man Utd have five to play and Chelsea have six fixtures left.
Predictions
Starting with Newcastle’s run-in, I feel confident we’ll pick up six points in our next two against Sheffield United and Burnley; the Premier League’s bottom two sides at the time of writing. We’ll surely have too much for the Blades at St James’ Park, while an away trip to Turf Moor is another big chance to take maximum points.
After that comes a home clash with Brighton; a fixture we’ll remember well last season as we won 4-1 to all but seal a top-four finish. Like Spurs, Brighton commit men forward and will leave space in behind, which could play right into the hands of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon. I see us coming out on top here in a high-scoring affair.
Then comes two away games on t he final week of the season. Man Utd have often been there for the taking at Old Trafford, but I think that one will end all square and I fancy the same outcome on the final day at Brentford; who are always tough to beat on their own patch.
That would mean 11 points from our final five games, taking us to 61 for the season. The question is, will that be enough for sixth or seventh?
First off, I can’t see West Ham (48 points) getting close to that with Liverpool and Man City to come in two of their last four games, leaving Man Utd and Chelsea as the key threats.
I expect Man Utd to beat Burnley, draw at Crystal Palace, lose at home to Arsenal, draw with Newcastle and lose on the last day at Brighton. They are very beatable and face some tough games over the run in. Should that come true, they’d end the season on 58 points; three behind my projected total for Newcastle.
As for Chelsea, I can see a defeat at Aston Villa, a draw at home to Tottenham, a win over West Ham, defeats at Nottingham Forest and Brighton followed by a final day win at home to Bournemouth, taking them to 55 points.
Black and white bias aside, I feel our remaining fixtures give us the edge, but we’ll have improve on Wednesday’s defeat at Crystal Palace if we want to take sixth spot back off a plucky Man Utd side who often ride their luck en route to results.
